New South Wales vs Tasmania Prediction: Who Will Win NSW vs TAS Final ODI Match on 11th March 2026?
The New South Wales vs Tasmania prediction for the Final ODI of the Marsh One Day Cup 2025-26 is the biggest domestic one-day match in Australian cricket this season — and the two teams come into it with very different stories.
This NSW vs TAS Final ODI is scheduled for Wednesday, 11th March 2026, at Bellerive Oval in Hobart. The 8:35 AM local start sets up a full day of cricket for what promises to be a compelling final.
Tasmania finished top of the group stage — losing only twice in seven matches. Captain Beau Webster has been outstanding throughout the campaign with 306 runs at an average of 61.20. They are the home team, playing at their own Bellerive Oval fortress.
But New South Wales have beaten Tasmania four of the last five times these teams have met. Their most recent encounter was in the last league game — and NSW won it by 7 wickets with extraordinary ease. Kurtis Patterson scored 125 off 89 balls. Josh Philippe posted 58 off just 29. They chased 274 and got home in the 31st over.
Patterson is not just in form — he has had one of the great Marsh One Day Cup individual batting campaigns in recent memory. His 513 runs at an average of 102.60 make him the competition’s leading run-scorer by a comfortable margin. The gap between Patterson and the next batter is significant.
Tanveer Sangha leads the competition’s bowling wicket-takers with 18 wickets at an average of 18.05. His leg-spin against Tasmania’s batting lineup at Bellerive Oval — where the surface can assist spin through the second half of the innings — makes him the most dangerous bowler in the final.
Ryan Hadley took 5 wickets against Tasmania in the last meeting. That kind of bowling performance in a rematch is a powerful psychological factor.
Tasmania’s counter-argument is their home advantage and the motivational force of chasing a first title in 16 years. Webster’s all-round quality, Mitchell Owen and Caleb Jewell’s opening partnership, and Charlie Wakim’s match-winning 76 in the last game all show Tasmania have the batting to compete.
Chasers have won three of the first four games in this tournament — a trend that makes winning the toss critically important at Bellerive Oval.
Cricketwebs brings you the full NSW vs TAS Final ODI 2026 prediction — previews, XIs, Fantasy Team, ODI history, pitch, weather, toss, and our expert winner selection.
Table of Contents
Match Details
| Match | NSW vs TAS, Final ODI — Marsh One Day Cup 2025–26 |
| Date | Wednesday, 11th March 2026 |
| Time | 8:35 AM (Local AEDT) |
| Venue | Bellerive Oval, Hobart, Tasmania |
| Tournament | Marsh One Day Cup 2025–26 |
| Broadcaster | FanCode & YouTube |
New South Wales Preview
New South Wales come into the Marsh One Day Cup Final as the form team of the competition. Their 7-wicket dismantling of Tasmania in the last league game — chasing 274 in just 31 overs — was not merely a win. It was a statement of intent. They are aiming for their 13th one-day cup title, and the players know the occasion.
Kurtis Patterson is the competition’s outstanding individual performer. His 513 runs at an average of 102.60 make him the leading run-scorer by a wide margin. In the last meeting with Tasmania, he posted 125 off just 89 balls — an innings that included 17 fours and 1 six. His ability to read the match situation and accelerate at the right moment makes him the most important batter in either XI.
Josh Philippe opens the batting and provides the explosive start that allows Patterson to build from a position of strength. His 58 off 29 in the last meeting was devastating. Philippe’s aggressive approach means NSW can post 60+ in the first 10 overs regularly. Sam Konstas at the other end adds youth and talent to the opening combination.
Lachlan Shaw and Chris Green provide the middle-order depth. Green’s all-round value — both batting and bowling — gives NSW tactical flexibility in every phase of the match. Joel Davies, Matthew Gilkes, and Peter Francis add lower-order hitting that pushes totals from 260 to 290+.
Tanveer Sangha is the bowling match-winner. His 18 wickets at 18.05 are the most of any bowler in this competition. His leg-spin extracts inconsistent bounce from Bellerive’s surface in the second half of the innings and he has the variations — wrong’un, flipper, and pace change — to dismiss the best batters at this level.
Ryan Hadley took 5 wickets against Tasmania in the league game. His pace and seam movement with the new ball is the most dangerous early bowling option. Charlie Anderson provides the support pace. Adam Zampa adds additional leg-spin variety alongside Sangha.
Key NSW Players
- Kurtis Patterson: 513 runs at 102.60 — competition’s leading run-scorer by clear margin, 125 off 89 in last H2H; the most important batter in this final
- Tanveer Sangha: 18 wickets at 18.05 — competition’s leading wicket-taker, leg-spin that dismantles batting lineups in the second half of innings at Bellerive
- Ryan Hadley: 5 wickets in last match vs TAS — outstanding recent bowling form against this specific opponent is the most powerful individual momentum statistic in the final
Tasmania Preview
Tasmania finished the Marsh One Day Cup group stage at the top of the table — an achievement that reflects genuine quality across a seven-match campaign where they lost only twice. Captain Beau Webster has been outstanding. The team plays their home final at Bellerive Oval, where they know the conditions, the pitch, and the angles better than any visiting team.
The challenge for Tasmania is overcoming a losing streak against this specific opponent. They have lost four of their last five matches against New South Wales. The most recent defeat — by 7 wickets in the final league game — was comprehensive. Walking into the final against the same team immediately after that loss requires exceptional mental resilience.
Beau Webster is Tasmania’s most important cricketer. His 306 runs at an average of 61.20 are the team’s best batting figures. He provides the anchor in the middle order that allows the rest of the batting to function — absorbing pressure when early wickets fall and accelerating in the final 15 overs when the innings demands it. His bowling adds all-round value.
Mitchell Owen and Caleb Jewell are an experienced opening partnership. Owen scored 35 in the last meeting with NSW and Jewell contributed 32. Both need to go deeper in this final and give the middle order the platform they failed to provide in the league match. Tim Ward’s 47 in the last game showed his ability to contribute in the middle order.
Charlie Wakim was Tasmania’s match-winner in the last NSW encounter — his 76 off 73 balls was the innings that pushed Tasmania to 274. He is the most dangerous match-changer in Tasmania’s batting lineup, capable of posting 80-100 when conditions are right. Ben McDermott provides the wicket-keeping function and middle-order depth.
Nathan Ellis is Tasmania’s bowling spearhead. His ability to swing the new ball in Hobart’s cooler morning conditions makes him the most threatening new-ball bowler Tasmania have. Billy Stanlake provides the height and bounce. Will Prestwidge and Raf MacMillan add supporting pace. Nikhil Chaudhary’s 8 wickets in the competition provide the best spin option.
Key Tasmania Players
- Beau Webster: 306 runs at 61.20 — Tasmania’s most complete cricketer and the batting backbone who must go deep in the final after being dismissed for modest contributions in recent defeats
- Charlie Wakim: 76 off 73 in last H2H — Tasmania’s most explosive match-winner, the one batter who showed the ability to dominate NSW’s bowling attack, must repeat that performance
- Nathan Ellis: New-ball swing at Bellerive — Hobart’s morning conditions assist swing, Ellis’s opening spell is Tasmania’s best opportunity to remove Patterson and Philippe cheaply
Team Squads
New South Wales Full Squad
Sean Abbott, Pat Cummins, Joel Davies, Oliver Davies, Ben Dwarshuis, Jack Edwards, Matt Gilkes, Ryan Hadley, Liam Hatcher, Josh Hazlewood, Sam Konstas, Nathan Lyon, Nic Maddinson, Blake Nikitaras, Jack Nisbet, Kurtis Patterson, Josh Philippe, William Salzmann, Tanveer Sangha, Lachlan Shaw, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Charlie Stobo, Chris Tremain, Adam Zampa
Tasmania Full Squad
Marcus Bean, Gabe Bell, Jackson Bird, Iain Carlisle, Jake Doran, Kieran Elliott, Nathan Ellis, Bradley Hope, Matt Kuhnemann, Caleb Jewell, Riley Meredith, Lawrence Neil-Smith, Mitch Owen, Will Prestwidge, Nivethan Radhakrishnan, Jordan Silk, Billy Stanlake, Charlie Wakim, Tim Ward, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster, Mac Wright
Probable Playing XI
| New South Wales XI | Tasmania XI |
| Sam Konstas | Mitchell Owen |
| Josh Philippe (wk) | Caleb Jewell |
| Kurtis Patterson (c) | Beau Webster (c) |
| Lachlan Shaw | Tim Ward |
| Chris Green | Ben McDermott (wk) |
| Joel Davies | Charlie Wakim |
| Matthew Gilkes | Bradley Hope |
| Adam Zampa | Will Prestwidge |
| Tanveer Sangha | Nathan Ellis |
| Charlie Anderson | Raf MacMillan |
| Ryan Hadley | Billy Stanlake |
Fantasy Team XI — NSW vs TAS Final
| Player | Team | Role | Fantasy Reason |
| Kurtis Patterson (c) | NSW | BAT | Captain — 513 runs at 102.60 avg, scored 125 off 89 in last head-to-head, competition’s leading run-scorer by a wide margin |
| Josh Philippe (wk) | NSW | BAT/WK | Vice-Captain — 58 off 29 in last match vs TAS, explosive opener plus WK bonus points, high floor and ceiling |
| Tanveer Sangha | NSW | BOWL | 18 wickets at 18.05 avg — competition’s leading wicket-taker, dangerous leg-spin against TAS batting at Bellerive |
| Beau Webster (c) | TAS | ALL | 306 runs at 61.20 + bowling — most complete all-round pick in the match, TAS captain with both batting and bowling returns |
| Sam Konstas | NSW | BAT | Aggressive opener with talent to post big powerplay scores; NSW won last game after his early dismissal — dangerous if he bats deep |
| Charlie Wakim | TAS | BAT | 76 off 73 in last H2H — TAS’s most explosive match-winner in recent memory, capable of changing the game in 10 overs |
| Ryan Hadley | NSW | BOWL | 5 wickets in last match vs TAS — outstanding form heading into the final, highest bowling ceiling of any NSW bowler |
| Nathan Ellis | TAS | BOWL | Opening pace bowler for TAS, new-ball swing at Bellerive Oval, most dangerous TAS bowling threat against NSW’s top order |
| Mitchell Owen | TAS | BAT | 35 runs in last H2H as opener — provides strong batting foundation for TAS, aggressive style suits Bellerive’s short boundaries |
| Chris Green | NSW | ALL | All-round value — batting depth + middle-overs spin bowling, contributes across both innings |
| Lachlan Shaw | NSW | BAT | Middle-order depth for NSW — contributed in last H2H, reliable accumulator who scores steadily under pressure |
The Fantasy Team XI for the Marsh One Day Cup Final is built around the two most dominant individual statistical performers of the competition — Kurtis Patterson and Tanveer Sangha — with supporting picks chosen for consistency, match-up advantages, and specific recent H2H performances.
Kurtis Patterson is the captain pick. His 513 runs at 102.60 is the most dominant batting contribution in this competition. In the last match against Tasmania specifically, he scored 125 off 89. The 2x captain multiplier on his runs, catches, and wicket contributions makes him the safest individual pick in this final. He has the highest floor and the highest ceiling of any batter.
Josh Philippe is the vice-captain pick. His 58 off 29 in the last meeting against Tasmania demonstrated explosive power at the top of the order. The WK bonus points combined with his aggressive batting approach and 1.5x vice-captain multiplier make him the best second-in-command choice for any fantasy lineup in this final.
Tanveer Sangha and Ryan Hadley are the must-include bowling picks. Sangha’s 18 wickets lead the competition. Hadley took 5 wickets in the last match against this exact opponent. Both have proven, specific form heading into this final.
Beau Webster’s all-round contributions make him the best TAS pick. Charlie Wakim’s 76 off 73 in the last H2H remains the most explosive individual batting performance from the TAS side. Nathan Ellis provides the bowling threat from Tasmania’s camp.
Captain & Vice-Captain Picks
- Captain: Kurtis Patterson — 513 runs at 102.60, 125 off 89 in last H2H, competition’s leading run-scorer; the 2x multiplier on sustained high-scoring is the safest captain pick in this tournament
- Vice-Captain: Josh Philippe — 58 off 29 last meeting, WK bonus, explosive opener; the 1.5x multiplier on aggressive runs and bonus points makes him the optimal second selection
Players to Avoid
- Avoid: Billy Stanlake (TAS, BOWL) — tall pace option but wicket economy has been inconsistent this season, Sangha and Hadley offer significantly better wicket-taking value in the same slot
- Avoid: Adam Zampa (NSW, BOWL) — leg-spin option but Sangha’s 18 wickets make him the primary spin pick; Zampa’s fantasy returns are lower in a support role at Bellerive
Also Check: Get The Best Fantasy Prediction From Cricket Experts
Favourite Team — New South Wales (Why?)
New South Wales are the strong favourites to win the Marsh One Day Cup Final at Bellerive Oval — and the argument for them is built on the most compelling set of individual and team statistics in this competition.
They have won four of the last five matches against Tasmania. They won the most recent encounter — the last league game — by 7 wickets with extraordinary ease. Patterson (125) and Philippe (58 off 29) chased 274 in 31 overs.
Patterson’s 513 runs at 102.60 is the most dominant batting performance in the competition. Sangha’s 18 wickets at 18.05 is the most dominant bowling performance. Having the leading run-scorer and leading wicket-taker both in the same XI for a one-off final is a decisive structural advantage.
Tasmania are at home and will be inspired by the chance to win their first title in 16 years. But their back-to-back losses entering the final — and their 4/5 record against NSW — are psychological disadvantages that matter in knockout cricket.
New South Wales ODI History
| Team | Played | Won | Lost | No Result | Tie |
| New South Wales | 321 | 174 | 140 | 3 | 4 |
NSW have played 321 domestic ODIs — the most of any team in this final — winning 174. Their 54% win rate reflects a historically dominant force in Australian domestic one-day cricket with 12 previous titles.
Tasmania ODI History
| Team | Played | Won | Lost | No Result | Tie |
| Tasmania | 300 | 119 | 171 | 6 | 4 |
Tasmania have played 300 domestic ODIs with 119 wins — a 40% win rate. They have not won the Marsh One Day Cup title in 16 years. This final represents their best opportunity in a generation.
Pitch Report — Bellerive Oval, Hobart
Bellerive Oval in Hobart is Tasmania’s home fortress — a ground where the conditions are unique in Australian domestic cricket. The pitch typically offers good carry for pace bowlers in the morning session when the ball is new and the Hobart air is cool. Nathan Ellis and Billy Stanlake can find swing and seam movement in these early conditions.
Once the morning session passes, the pitch settles into a true, even-bounce surface that becomes increasingly batter-friendly. The average first innings score at this venue this season is 246 — reflecting the batting-friendly nature of the surface after the powerplay. The short boundary on the square leg side at Bellerive is a key batting feature that assists slog-sweeps and pull shots. Spin becomes more effective in the second half of each innings as the pitch dries and cracks begin to develop.
Weather Report
| Condition | Forecast |
| Temperature | 14–21°C |
| Humidity | 55–70% |
| Rain Chances | 20% |
| Wind | Moderate southerly |
| Sky | Partly cloudy |
Hobart in mid-March is cool — 14-21°C with a moderate southerly wind typical of southern Tasmania at this time of year. Rain probability is 20% — brief showers are possible, particularly in the morning session. A full 100-over match is the most likely outcome but DLS cannot be completely ruled out.
The cool morning conditions will assist swing for Nathan Ellis and Ryan Hadley in the first powerplay. The afternoon session is forecast to be clearer and warmer — batter-friendly conditions for the middle overs of both innings.
Broadcast Details
The New South Wales vs Tasmania Marsh One Day Cup Final will be streamed live in India on FanCode. The match is also available on PCB/Cricket Australia’s official YouTube channel. The 8:35 AM AEDT start time translates to early morning for Indian viewers. FanCode subscribers can access live streaming, commentary, and highlights through the app and website.
Toss Prediction
Tasmania are predicted to win the toss at Bellerive Oval for the Marsh One Day Cup Final.
Chasers have won three of the first four matches in this competition — a trend both captains are aware of. The 20% rain risk also incentivises batting second — a shorter target under DLS is easier to achieve when the team batting second knows the Duckworth-Lewis number.
Toss Prediction: Tasmania to win the toss. Expected decision: field first.
Score Prediction
If New South Wales bat first: 289+. NSW’s batting lineup — Patterson, Philippe, Konstas, Shaw, Green — is capable of posting well above 274 on Bellerive’s flat second-innings batting surface. Their 7-wicket chase of 274 showed what their batting can do in 31 overs. Batting first and setting 289+ is their optimal scenario.
If Tasmania bat first: 240+. Webster (306 season runs), Owen, Jewell, and Wakim (76 in last H2H) have the batting to reach 240+. But Sangha’s 18 wickets and Hadley’s 5-wicket performance against this same Tasmania lineup create bowling pressure that will restrict them below 260 if they bat first.
Probable Top Batsman & Bowler
Kurtis Patterson is the overwhelming top run-scorer pick from New South Wales. His 513 runs at 102.60 is not just the competition’s best batting statistic — it is the best individual batting campaign in this Marsh One Day Cup by a significant margin. In the last head-to-head meeting against Tasmania specifically, he scored 125 off 89. He is the match-defining batting pick in this final.
Josh Philippe is the explosive alternative — 58 off 29 in the last meeting showed his powerplay destructiveness. Sam Konstas provides the third opening batting option. Lachlan Shaw and Chris Green round out NSW’s middle-order batting picks.
For Tasmania, Beau Webster is the clear top-scorer pick. His 306 runs at 61.20 are the team’s best batting statistics. Charlie Wakim’s 76 in the last meeting makes him the second pick — he has already shown the ability to dominate NSW’s bowling.
With the ball, Tanveer Sangha is the top wicket-taker pick. His 18 wickets at 18.05 are the competition’s best bowling statistics and his leg-spin against Tasmania’s batting is the most dangerous individual bowling match-up in this fixture. Ryan Hadley is the backup pick — 5 wickets against Tasmania in the previous meeting is specific, match-relevant form. For Tasmania, Nathan Ellis is the bowling pick — his new-ball swing in Hobart’s morning conditions is their best opportunity to remove Patterson and Philippe early.
New South Wales vs Tasmania Winning Chances
| Team | Win % | Why They Can Win | Why They Might Lose |
| New South Wales | 73% | Won 4 of last 5 vs TAS, Patterson 513 runs at 102.60, won last H2H by 7 wickets, Sangha 18 wickets (competition leader), Hadley 5 wickets in last match, chasing trend (3/4) favours NSW | Away at Bellerive Oval (TAS home), TAS finished 1st — lost only twice in 7 games, Webster’s all-round quality and Ellis’s swing with new ball are genuine match-winning threats |
| Tasmania | 27% | Home at Bellerive Oval, finished 1st in group stage, Webster 306 runs 61.20 avg, Chaudhary 8 wickets, aiming for first title in 16 years — motivated final opponents | Lost 4 of last 5 vs NSW, lost to NSW last game by 7 wickets, lost back-to-back entering the final, Sangha’s 18-wicket leg-spin form is their most dangerous individual threat |
Match Prediction
New South Wales are predicted to win the Marsh One Day Cup Final at Bellerive Oval. Kurtis Patterson’s 513-run campaign at 102.60, Tanveer Sangha’s 18-wicket season, and Ryan Hadley’s 5-wicket performance against this exact Tasmania XI give NSW the decisive all-round edge.
Tasmania have home advantage and the motivation of chasing a first title in 16 years — Webster’s quality and Wakim’s match-winning potential make them dangerous. But NSW’s 4/5 H2H record and their 7-wicket win in the immediate rematch makes them strong favourites. Final Prediction: New South Wales Will Win
Also, once the toss takes place, we might modify the Today Match Prediction as per the playing XIs. Please check this blog after the toss for the updated Prediction.
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