Pakistan vs Bangladesh Prediction Who Will Win PAK vs BAN 1st ODI Match on 11th March 2026

The Pakistan vs Bangladesh prediction for the 1st ODI of the 2026 series is one of the most closely contested match predictions in recent bilateral ODI cricket — with both teams bringing significant uncertainties and significant strengths into the opening fixture at the Shere-E-Bangla National Cricket Stadium in Mirpur, Dhaka.

This PAK vs BAN 1st ODI is scheduled for Wednesday, 11th March 2026, at 1:30 PM BST. It is the opening game of a three-match ODI series that serves as important preparation for both teams ahead of the ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2027 in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Namibia.

Pakistan come into this series ranked 4th in the ICC Men’s ODI Team Rankings with a rating of 105. They are historically dominant in head-to-head matches against Bangladesh — winning 34 of 39 ODIs played between the two teams, including 6 of the 9 matches played at this specific Mirpur venue.

However, this Pakistan squad is unlike any recent touring squad. Six potential debutants have been included. Babar Azam and Saim Ayub have both been dropped following their disappointing T20 World Cup 2026 campaign. The batting lineup is inexperienced — and Mirpur’s slow, spin-friendly surface is historically difficult for touring teams.

Shaheen Afridi leads Pakistan’s bowling attack with 135 ODI wickets in 71 matches — and 12 of those wickets have come against Bangladesh in just 4 matches. But he has never played an ODI in Bangladesh before, and adjusting to Dhaka’s conditions in a first-ever tour of this venue is a challenge that cannot be underestimated.

Bangladesh return to international cricket after a three-month absence following their withdrawal from the T20 World Cup 2026. Under captain Mehidy Hasan Miraz — who has taken 50 wickets in Bangladesh alone — they start as home favourites. Tawhid Hridoy’s 388 ODI runs in 2025 and the combined experience of Mustafizur Rahman (177 wkts) and Taskin Ahmed (117 wkts) gives Bangladesh a formidable home bowling attack.

Sahibzada Farhan is the most exciting new name in Pakistan’s squad. The T20 World Cup 2026’s top scorer with 383 runs in 6 innings — including two centuries — he brings List-A quality (3160 runs at 45.1 average) to his potential ODI debut.

Cricketwebs brings you the full PAK vs BAN 1st ODI 2026 prediction — team previews, playing XIs, Fantasy Team, ODI history, H2H, pitch, weather, toss, and our expert winner selection.

• Pakistan enter ranked 4th in ODI rankings (rating 105) but have dropped Babar Azam and Saim Ayub — six potential debutants make this one of Pakistan’s most inexperienced ODI squads to tour Bangladesh in recent memory
• Bangladesh return to cricket after 3 months away and have home advantage at Mirpur — Mehidy Hasan Miraz has taken 50 wickets at home alone, and Mustafizur (177 wkts) + Taskin (117 wkts) form a powerful home bowling attack
• Pakistan’s H2H record vs Bangladesh is outstanding — 34 wins in 39 ODIs, including 6/9 at Shere-E-Bangla — but this inexperienced touring squad faces their greatest test at a spin-friendly Mirpur venue
• The key match-up: Abrar Ahmed’s mystery spin vs Bangladesh’s middle order and Mehidy Hasan Miraz’s home-conditions spin vs Pakistan’s debutant batters — this dual spin battle will define the 1st ODI at Mirpur

Match Details

Match	PAK vs BAN, 1st ODI — Pakistan Tour of Bangladesh 2026
Date	Wednesday, 11th March 2026
Time	1:30 PM (BST / BDT)
Venue	Shere-E-Bangla National Cricket Stadium, Mirpur, Dhaka
Series	Pakistan Tour of Bangladesh 2026 (3-match ODI series)
Broadcaster	YouTube (live streaming)

Bangladesh Preview

Bangladesh return to international cricket with a point to prove. Their withdrawal from the T20 World Cup 2026 left the team in a difficult position — three months off the international stage, questions about the team’s stability, and the weight of expectation that comes from hosting a full Pakistan ODI series at home.

Captain Mehidy Hasan Miraz is the most important figure for Bangladesh heading into this series. His ODI record — 1790 runs and 121 wickets in 114 matches — makes him one of the most genuinely influential all-rounders in the game at present. His home record is particularly remarkable: 50 wickets in Bangladesh, where the Mirpur conditions — slow, low, and turning — suit his off-spin bowling style perfectly.

The biggest selection talking point is Litton Das. He has been retained despite not scoring in double digits since 2023 — a stark run of poor form across multiple formats. His 2569 runs in 95 ODIs show historical quality, but his recent form is a significant concern. If he fails again in this series, the selection question will become impossible to ignore.

Soumya Sarkar gives Bangladesh an experienced opening option with 2338 ODI runs in 79 matches. His experience of international cricket since 2014 and his familiarity with home conditions make him the dependable platform-builder that Bangladesh need at the top. Najmul Hossain Shanto’s 1705 runs in 58 ODIs add further established batting quality in the top order.

Tawhid Hridoy was Bangladesh’s top run scorer in ODIs in 2025 with 388 runs at an average of 35.27. His form, confidence, and ability to accelerate in the middle overs make him the most dangerous middle-order batter in Bangladesh’s lineup heading into this series. Mahidul Islam Bhuiyan and Afif Hossain add lower-middle-order batting depth.

Bangladesh’s bowling attack is formidable — particularly at home. Mustafizur Rahman’s 177 ODI wickets make him one of the most experienced pace bowlers in Asia. His slower balls, cutters, and variations are particularly effective on Mirpur’s slow pitch. Taskin Ahmed’s 117 ODI wickets add genuine pace and swing.

Bangladesh are missing key pace options — Hasan Mahmud and Tanzim Hasan are both unavailable through injury. But the core remains strong. Rishad Hossain, who impressed with 15 wickets in BBL 2025-26, provides the leg-spin option. Tanvir Islam rounds out the bowling. Miraz’s home advantage, spin depth, and the motivation of returning from a difficult three months gives Bangladesh genuine belief heading into this series.

Key Bangladesh Players

• Mehidy Hasan Miraz: 1790 runs + 121 ODI wkts (50 in Bangladesh alone), captain — home-conditions specialist whose spin on Mirpur’s slow track is Bangladesh’s primary match-winning weapon
• Mustafizur Rahman: 177 ODI wickets — Bangladesh’s most experienced pace bowler, cutters and slower balls on Mirpur’s surface are extremely effective against Pakistan’s debutant top order
• Tawhid Hridoy: 388 ODI runs in 2025 at 35.27 avg — Bangladesh’s best recent batting form, the middle-order anchor who must deliver in the most important home series of the year

Pakistan Preview

Pakistan arrive in Bangladesh as a team in transition. Their elimination at the Super Eight stage of the T20 World Cup 2026 prompted significant changes — and the squad named for this Bangladesh ODI series reflects the extent of that reset. Six potential debutants have been included. Babar Azam and Saim Ayub have both been axed.

Babar Azam’s exclusion is the most discussed selection decision. His BBL campaign was difficult, and he was dropped from the XI for Pakistan’s most important T20 World Cup match. But his ODI record — and his value in the longer format — remains difficult to ignore. The selectors have made a bold decision that puts enormous pressure on the replacements to perform.

Saim Ayub’s absence feels equally harsh. In 17 ODIs, he has scored three centuries and three half-centuries — a record that most batters in world cricket would envy. His exclusion from what is nominally his best format is a selection that many observers find difficult to understand.

The exciting new name in Pakistan’s squad is Sahibzada Farhan. He was the top scorer of the T20 World Cup 2026 with 383 runs in 6 innings — including centuries against Namibia and Sri Lanka. His List-A record of 3160 runs at an average of 45.1 in 73 matches gives him the domestic credentials to make a strong ODI debut.

Mohammad Rizwan retains his place and will keep wickets. Salman Ali Agha — the T20I captain — provides another established batting option. Abdul Samad, Ghazi Ghori, Maaz Sadaqat, Shamyl Hussain, and Hussain Talat are the other new faces being integrated into an ODI squad under significant scrutiny.

Shaheen Afridi leads the bowling attack with 135 wickets in 71 ODIs. His record against Bangladesh — 12 wickets in 4 matches — is outstanding. But he has never bowled in Bangladesh before, and adjusting to Mirpur’s conditions requires experienced footwork and intelligent variation that only match experience in that specific environment provides.

Haris Rauf’s 97 ODI wickets add the second pace option with pace and bounce that can trouble any batting lineup. Abrar Ahmed’s 28 wickets in 14 ODIs at a rate of exactly two wickets per match is exceptional — his mystery spin variations are the kind of bowling that Bangladesh’s middle-order batters may not have faced extensively. Faheem Ashraf provides the all-round option. Faisal Akram adds additional spin.

Key Pakistan Players

• Shaheen Afridi: 135 ODI wickets in 71 matches, 12 vs BAN in 4 games — the most dangerous bowler in this fixture, his new-ball spell against Miraz’s lineup is Pakistan’s primary match-winning opportunity
• Sahibzada Farhan: T20 WC top scorer (383 runs), List-A 3160 runs at 45.1 — the most exciting batting debutant in this series, could announce himself on the ODI stage with a match-defining innings
• Abrar Ahmed: 28 ODI wkts in 14 matches — 2 wickets per match average, mystery spin on Mirpur’s slow turning pitch makes him Bangladesh’s biggest bowling challenge

Team Squads

Bangladesh Full Squad

Mehidy Hasan Miraz (c), Soumya Sarkar, Saif Hassan, Tanzid Hasan, Najmul Hossain Shanto, Tawhid Hridoy, Litton Das (wk), Afif Hossain, Mahidul Islam Bhuiyan, Rishad Hossain, Tanvir Islam, Mustafizur Rahman, Taskin Ahmed, Shoriful Islam, Nahid Rana

Pakistan Full Squad

Shaheen Afridi (c), Abdul Samad, Abrar Ahmed, Faheem Ashraf, Faisal Akram, Haris Rauf, Hussain Talat, Maaz Sadaqat, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Mohammad Wasim, Muhammad Ghazi Ghori, Saad Masood, Sahibzada Farhan, Salman Agha, Shamyl Hussain

Probable Playing XI

Pakistan XI	Bangladesh XI
Sahibzada Farhan	Soumya Sarkar
Shamyl Hussain	Litton Das (wk)
Mohammad Rizwan (wk)	Najmul Hossain Shanto
Abdul Samad	Tawhid Hridoy
Salman Ali Agha	Mahidul Islam Bhuiyan
Maaz Sadaqat	Mehidy Hasan Miraz (c)
Faheem Ashraf	Afif Hossain
Saad Masood	Rishad Hossain
Haris Rauf	Mustafizur Rahman
Shaheen Afridi (c)	Taskin Ahmed
Abrar Ahmed	Tanvir Islam

Fantasy Team XI — PAK vs BAN 1st ODI

Player	Team	Role	Fantasy Reason
Shaheen Afridi (c)	PAK	BOWL/ALL	Captain — 135 ODI wkts in 71 matches, 12 wkts vs BAN in 4 games, leading pace threat; 2x multiplier on wickets in Mirpur spin-friendly conditions
Mehidy Hasan Miraz (c)	BAN	ALL	Vice-Captain — 1790 runs + 121 ODI wkts (50 at home), home-condition specialist captain; 1.5x on all-round returns makes him the best second pick
Sahibzada Farhan	PAK	BAT	T20 WC top scorer (383 runs, 2 centuries), 3160 List-A runs at 45.1 avg, first ODI match — explosive debut performer potential
Mustafizur Rahman	BAN	BOWL	177 ODI wickets — Bangladesh’s leading wicket-taker, experienced cutters and slower balls disrupt batters in Dhaka conditions
Tawhid Hridoy	BAN	BAT	Top BAN run scorer in 2025 ODIs (388 runs at 35.27 avg), in-form middle-order batter in home conditions — reliable bat pick
Haris Rauf	PAK	BOWL	97 ODI wickets, pace and short-ball attack against BAN’s top order; high wicket-taking ceiling in Dhaka’s flatter pitch
Abrar Ahmed	PAK	BOWL	28 ODI wkts in 14 matches — lead PAK spinner, mystery spin variations are highly effective on Mirpur’s slow and turning track
Taskin Ahmed	BAN	BOWL	117 ODI wickets, dangerous opening pace bowler for Bangladesh, key in restricting Pakistan’s aggressive top order in powerplay
Mohammad Rizwan	PAK	BAT/WK	WK bonus points + consistent batting, retained in the squad amid changes — reliable fantasy pick across all formats
Afif Hossain	BAN	ALL	Spin-bowling all-rounder, important middle-overs contributor for Bangladesh — dual return profile provides value in spin-friendly Mirpur
Soumya Sarkar	BAN	BAT	2338 ODI runs in 79 matches, experienced Bangladesh opener, home conditions expertise makes him reliable batting platform pick

The Fantasy Team XI for the Pakistan vs Bangladesh 1st ODI is built around the most statistically reliable all-round contributors from both sides — with heavy weighting toward bowlers in Mirpur’s spin-friendly conditions and the all-round profile of both captains.

Shaheen Afridi is the captain pick. His 135 ODI wickets in 71 matches, including 12 against Bangladesh specifically in 4 games, give him the highest bowling fantasy ceiling in this fixture. As Pakistan’s captain and lead pace bowler, the 2x multiplier on wickets at Mirpur makes him the safest and highest-upside captain pick. He combines lower-order batting contributions with elite wicket-taking.

Mehidy Hasan Miraz is the vice-captain. His 1790 ODI runs + 121 wickets (50 in Bangladesh) give him the broadest all-round fantasy profile in the match. The 1.5x vice-captain multiplier on both his bowling wickets and batting runs — in home conditions where he is most effective — makes him the ideal second pick.

Abrar Ahmed and Mustafizur Rahman are the must-include specialist bowling picks. Tawhid Hridoy (388 runs in 2025) and Sahibzada Farhan (3160 List-A runs at 45.1) cover the batting slots for both teams. Haris Rauf, Taskin Ahmed, and Mohammad Rizwan round out the fantasy lineup with consistent returns.

Captain & Vice-Captain

• Captain: Shaheen Afridi — 135 ODI wkts, 12 vs BAN in 4 matches; 2x multiplier on elite wicket-taking in a format and opposition where he has demonstrated the highest individual bowling impact
• Vice-Captain: Mehidy Hasan Miraz — 1790 runs + 121 ODI wkts (50 in Bangladesh); home-conditions all-round specialist with 1.5x multiplier across both batting and bowling returns

Players to Avoid

• Avoid: Litton Das (BAN, WK/BAT) — no double-digit score since 2023 across formats; Rizwan provides the same wicketkeeper batting profile with better current form
• Avoid: Shamyl Hussain (PAK, BAT) — potential debutant without established ODI statistics; Sahibzada Farhan’s demonstrated T20 WC form and List-A record make him the far superior batting debut pick

Also Check: Get The Best Fantasy Prediction From Cricket Experts

Favourite Team — Pakistan (Why?)

Pakistan are marginally favoured to win the 1st ODI at Mirpur — and the primary reason is their extraordinary head-to-head record against Bangladesh. Winning 34 of 39 ODIs overall and 6 of 9 at this specific Shere-E-Bangla Stadium venue is the most powerful statistical argument for any team in bilateral cricket.

Shaheen Afridi’s 135 ODI wickets — with 12 specifically against Bangladesh — and Abrar Ahmed’s 2-wickets-per-game average provide a bowling attack that can dismantle any batting lineup. Bangladesh’s Litton Das form is a genuine weakness Pakistan’s bowlers will target.

The counterargument is real — six debutants, no Babar Azam, no Saim Ayub, and Bangladesh in home conditions with a historically spin-friendly Mirpur surface. This is Pakistan’s most vulnerable ODI squad in recent years.

But history, bowling quality, and the individual brilliance of Shaheen and Abrar give Pakistan the edge — narrowly.

Pakistan ODI History

Team	Played	Won	Lost	NR	Tie
Pakistan	996	526	441	21	8

Pakistan are one of the most experienced ODI nations with 996 matches played and 526 wins — a 53% win rate. Their record places them among the top five ODI teams in history by matches won.

Bangladesh ODI History

Team	Played	Won	Lost	NR	Tie
Bangladesh	455	163	282	10	0

Bangladesh have played 455 ODIs, winning 163 — a 36% overall win rate. However, their home record is significantly stronger, making Mirpur one of their most reliable venues in world ODI cricket.

Head-to-Head Stats — Pakistan vs Bangladesh

Venue	Played	PAK Won	BAN Won	No Result
Overall H2H	39	34	5	0
At Shere-E-Bangla, Mirpur	9	6	3	0

Pakistan’s head-to-head dominance over Bangladesh is one of the most one-sided records in bilateral ODI cricket — 34 wins from 39 matches overall. However, Bangladesh have shown they can compete at home: 3 of their 5 wins have come at the Shere-E-Bangla Stadium in Mirpur, where home conditions significantly shift the balance. The spin-friendly Mirpur pitch reduces Pakistan’s pace advantage and amplifies Bangladesh’s home bowling strengths.

Pitch Report — Shere-E-Bangla Stadium, Mirpur

The Shere-E-Bangla National Cricket Stadium in Mirpur is one of the most unique ODI pitches in the world. The surface is slow, low, and provides significant turn for spinners from very early in the innings. Pace bowlers get little bounce and limited swing — the pitch dampens the effectiveness of Pakistan’s primary bowling weapon.

Batters need patience and strong footwork against spin to succeed at Mirpur. Hitting through the line is difficult — the ball stops and turns from the surface in both directions. Spinners who can adjust their pace and flight are the most dangerous bowlers at this venue. Abrar Ahmed’s mystery spin variations and Mehidy Miraz’s home-conditions off-spin are perfectly suited to this surface. The average ODI score at Mirpur is competitive — teams batting first typically post 220-250.

Weather Report

Condition	Forecast
Temperature	24–32°C
Humidity	55–70%
Rain Chances	15%
Wind	Light
Sky	Partly cloudy

Dhaka in mid-March is warm and humid — 24-32°C with 55-70% humidity typical of the pre-monsoon period. Rain probability is 15%, meaning brief showers are possible but a full 100-over match is the most likely outcome. The 1:30 PM BST day start means the match is played under hot daytime conditions. High humidity can assist swing bowling in the early overs before the pitch and atmosphere dry out through the afternoon session.

Broadcast Details

The Pakistan vs Bangladesh 1st ODI will be streamed live on YouTube. The 1:30 PM BST/BDT start is a prime-time daytime slot in South Asia — ideal for viewers across Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. Ball-by-ball live scores and updates are available on ESPNcricinfo, the ICC website, and the BCB and PCB official apps throughout the match.

Toss Prediction

Bangladesh are predicted to win the toss at the Shere-E-Bangla Stadium for the 1st ODI.

Mirpur’s spin-friendly track tends to get slower and lower as the match progresses — making chasing easier in the second innings when the surface is at its most difficult to bat on for the team batting second. Bangladesh, knowing their home conditions, will likely choose to bat first to set a target.

Toss Prediction: Bangladesh to win the toss. Expected decision: bat first.

Probable Top Batsman & Bowler

Sahibzada Farhan is the top batting pick from Pakistan. His 383 runs in 6 T20 World Cup innings — including centuries against Namibia and Sri Lanka — demonstrate his ability to score at the highest level under pressure. His List-A record of 3160 runs at 45.1 average shows consistent domestic quality that should translate well to ODI cricket. His potential debut adds the extra narrative that could make him the tournament’s biggest batting story.

Mohammad Rizwan provides the established batting alternative. Salman Ali Agha’s experience and Abdul Samad’s middle-order potential round out Pakistan’s batting picks.

For Bangladesh, Tawhid Hridoy is the clear top batting pick. His 388 ODI runs in 2025 at an average of 35.27 are the most productive recent batting form in the Bangladesh squad. Soumya Sarkar and Najmul Hossain Shanto are the experienced top-order alternatives.

With the ball, Shaheen Afridi is the top wicket-taker pick from Pakistan. His 135 ODI wickets and specific 12-wicket record against Bangladesh in 4 games is the strongest individual bowling statistic in this match. Abrar Ahmed’s mystery spin on Mirpur’s turning pitch makes him the second bowling pick. For Bangladesh, Mustafizur Rahman (177 ODI wkts) is the top bowling pick. His experience of Mirpur conditions and his cutters and slower balls will challenge Pakistan’s debutant batters throughout the innings.

Pakistan vs Bangladesh Winning Chances

Team	Win %	Why They Can Win	Why They Might Lose
Pakistan	51%	H2H 34/39 overall + 6/9 at Mirpur, Shaheen 135 ODI wkts (12 vs BAN), Abrar 28 wkts in 14 ODIs, Sahibzada Farhan 383 T20 WC runs + 3160 List-A runs, ranked 4th ICC ODI rankings	Babar Azam and Saim Ayub excluded, 6 potential debutants, Shaheen has never played in Bangladesh before, home conditions heavily favour BAN spinners, inexperienced batting lineup
Bangladesh	49%	Home conditions + Mirpur spin track, Miraz 50 home ODI wkts, Mustafizur 177 ODI wkts + Taskin 117, Hridoy 388 ODI runs in 2025, beat WI 2-1 at home in Oct 2025, ranked 10th but strong in home series	Litton Das form concern (no double-digit scores since 2023), missing Hasan Mahmud and Tanzim Hasan through injury, Pakistan’s overall H2H dominance (34/39), Shaheen + Abrar combination on any surface

Also, once the toss takes place, we might modify the Today Match Prediction as per the playing XIs. Please check this blog after the toss for the updated Prediction.

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