Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades Prediction: Who Will Win MLS vs MLR 22nd T20 BBL Match?
The Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades prediction for the 22nd T20 of the Big Bash League 2025–26 centers on the iconic Melbourne derby at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This rivalry always brings intensity, but current form clearly separates the two sides. The Stars have been one of the most consistent teams of the season, while the Renegades are still searching for rhythm. As a result, the Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades prediction strongly favors the Stars heading into this clash.
Melbourne Stars arrive at this fixture sitting near the top of the table after four wins from five matches. Their batting has depth, their bowling has penetration, and their all-rounders have contributed in crunch moments. In contrast, Melbourne Renegades have struggled to build momentum, managing just one win so far. While individual performances from Tim Seifert and Oliver Peake have been encouraging, the Renegades have lacked consistency as a unit.
At the MCG, where conditions often reward disciplined bowling and smart batting, the Stars’ balanced combination gives them a clear edge. The Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades prediction therefore leans toward a Stars victory, unless the Renegades can produce a near-perfect performance across all departments.
- Melbourne Stars are placed near the top after winning 4 of 5 matches
- Melbourne Renegades sit in the lower half with only one win so far
- Sam Harper, Marcus Stoinis, and Haris Rauf are key for the Stars
- Tim Seifert and Oliver Peake must fire for the Renegades to compete
Match Details
| Match | Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades, 22nd T20 |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, 4 January 2026 |
| Time | 1:45 PM (IST) |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne |
| Tournament | Big Bash League 2025–26 |
| Live Broadcast | JioHotstar, Star Sports Network |
Team Preview
Melbourne Stars Preview
Melbourne Stars have been one of the standout teams of the Big Bash League 2025–26, combining explosive batting, depth in all-rounders, and a disciplined bowling attack. Sitting near the top of the table, their performances reflect clarity in roles and consistency across all phases of the game. Unlike previous seasons where balance was an issue, this Stars unit looks settled and confident.
At the top of the order, Sam Harper has been the backbone of the batting lineup. In the current BBL season, Harper has scored 231 runs in 5 matches, averaging 46.20 with a strike rate of 158+. His ability to dominate the powerplay while still rotating strike has allowed the Stars to consistently post strong starts. Harper’s overall T20 record also supports his reliability, with over 2,500 T20 runs at a strike rate close to 140.
The middle order is where Melbourne Stars truly separate themselves from most teams. Marcus Stoinis has delivered impactful contributions, scoring 180+ runs this season while also picking up 6 wickets with his medium pace. His T20 career numbers—over 6,000 runs and 100+ wickets—highlight his value as a genuine match-winner. Alongside him, Glenn Maxwell brings unmatched explosiveness. Although Maxwell’s scores have varied, his strike rate this season remains above 150, and his career BBL tally of 3,500+ runs underlines his long-term influence.
Support from Campbell Kellaway and Hilton Cartwright has added stability. Kellaway has chipped in with 120+ runs this season, often batting through tricky middle overs, while Cartwright’s finishing ability ensures the Stars maintain momentum late in the innings. Tom Curran further strengthens the lower middle order, contributing runs at a strike rate above 140 and taking 7 wickets so far in the tournament.
The bowling unit has been equally impressive. Haris Rauf has been the spearhead, claiming 12 wickets in 5 matches at an average under 18. His pace and ability to strike at both ends of the innings make him one of the most feared bowlers in the league. Veteran Peter Siddle complements Rauf perfectly, using experience and control to pick up 8 wickets while keeping his economy rate around 8.50.
Spin responsibilities lie with Mitchell Swepson, who has taken 6 wickets this season. While not always among the top wicket-takers, Swepson’s role has been crucial in slowing the run rate during the middle overs. Additional part-time options from Maxwell and Stoinis give the Stars flexibility in varying conditions.
Fielding has been another strong suit. Melbourne Stars rank among the top teams in catching efficiency this season, saving crucial runs and converting half-chances into wickets.
Overall, with strong player statistics backing their performances, Melbourne Stars look like one of the most complete sides in BBL 2025–26 and remain serious title contenders.
Melbourne Renegades Preview
Melbourne Renegades have struggled to gain momentum in the Big Bash League 2025–26, finding themselves near the lower half of the table. Despite possessing experienced internationals and promising young talent, inconsistency with both bat and ball has prevented them from stringing together wins. Their campaign now hinges on quick improvement in execution and decision-making.
The standout performer for the Renegades has been Tim Seifert, who has carried the batting unit almost single-handedly. Seifert has scored 170 runs in 4 matches at an outstanding strike rate of 175+, making him one of the most dangerous powerplay batters in the competition. His overall T20 experience—over 4,000 runs globally—shows his ability to dominate attacks, but his lack of support has limited the team’s scoring potential.
Oliver Peake has been another positive, scoring 113 runs in 4 matches at a strike rate around 145. The young batter has shown maturity in shot selection and an ability to adapt to match situations. However, senior batters like Jake Fraser-McGurk and Josh Brown have been inconsistent. While Fraser-McGurk has shown flashes with a strike rate above 140, he has failed to convert starts into big scores, averaging below 25 this season.
The middle order remains a concern. Mohammad Rizwan, despite his vast international experience, has struggled to accelerate, scoring below 120 strike rate in the tournament so far. Will Sutherland, the captain, has contributed 100+ runs and picked up 5 wickets, but the lack of a reliable finisher has meant the Renegades often fall short in the last five overs.
Bowling has been a mixed bag. Jason Behrendorff has been the most consistent bowler, taking 4 wickets in 4 matches while providing early breakthroughs. Across his T20 career, Behrendorff averages 24.5, and his left-arm angle remains a key asset. Gurinder Sandhu and Andrew Tye have shared 10 wickets between them this season, but both have struggled at the death, conceding runs at over 9.5 per over.
Spin options such as Hassan Khan have shown promise, picking up 3 wickets and maintaining a respectable economy rate under 8.00, but they have lacked support from the pace unit in pressure moments.
Fielding has also hurt the Renegades’ campaign. Dropped catches and misfields have repeatedly allowed opposition batters to extend innings, which has directly impacted results.
In summary, Melbourne Renegades have individuals with strong statistical credentials, but the lack of collective performance has cost them dearly. Unless the middle order steps up and bowling at the death improves, the Renegades are likely to remain on the back foot for the remainder of the BBL season.
Also Check: BBL 2025-26: Points Table, Most Runs & Most Wickets
Team Squads
Melbourne Stars: Sam Harper, Marcus Stoinis, Glenn Maxwell, Haris Rauf, Peter Siddle, Tom Curran, Mitch Swepson, Hilton Cartwright, Campbell Kellaway, Thomas Fraser Rogers, Blake Macdonald
Melbourne Renegades: Tim Seifert, Mohammad Rizwan, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Oliver Peake, Josh Brown, Will Sutherland, Jason Behrendorff, Gurinder Sandhu, Andrew Tye, Hassan Khan, Callum Stow
Probable Playing XI
| Melbourne Stars | Melbourne Renegades |
|---|---|
| Thomas Fraser Rogers | Josh Brown |
| Sam Harper (wk) | Tim Seifert |
| Campbell Kellaway | Mohammad Rizwan (wk) |
| Blake Macdonald | Jake Fraser-McGurk |
| Marcus Stoinis (c) | Oliver Peake |
| Glenn Maxwell | Hassan Khan |
| Hilton Cartwright | Will Sutherland (c) |
| Tom Curran | Andrew Tye |
| Mitchell Swepson | Gurinder Sandhu |
| Haris Rauf | Jason Behrendorff |
| Peter Siddle | Callum Stow |
Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades Today’s Dream11/Fantasy Prediction
| Role | Players |
|---|---|
| Batters | Sam Harper, Tim Seifert, Marcus Stoinis |
| All-rounders | Glenn Maxwell, Tom Curran, Will Sutherland |
| Bowlers | Haris Rauf, Peter Siddle, Jason Behrendorff |
| Wicketkeeper | Mohammad Rizwan |
| Extra | Oliver Peake |
This fantasy combination focuses on multi-dimensional players and consistent performers. Sam Harper is a prime pick due to his excellent form and wicketkeeping points. Marcus Stoinis and Glenn Maxwell offer strong value as all-rounders who can contribute in both innings. Tim Seifert remains the safest Renegades pick given his explosive starts.
Haris Rauf and Peter Siddle are reliable wicket-taking options, especially at the MCG where disciplined pace bowling is rewarded. Tom Curran’s versatility makes him valuable in fantasy formats.
Captain options: Sam Harper, Marcus Stoinis
Vice-captain options: Glenn Maxwell, Tim Seifert
Players to avoid: Callum Stow (limited impact so far), Hassan Khan (inconsistent returns)
Also Check: Get The Best Fantasy Prediction From Cricket Experts
Favourite Team in Today’s Match
Melbourne Stars are the clear favorite in today’s Melbourne derby. Their consistency across all departments gives them a decisive edge over the Renegades. The Stars possess a deeper batting lineup, stronger bowling resources, and greater match awareness in pressure situations. With players like Sam Harper, Marcus Stoinis, and Haris Rauf in top form, they have repeatedly proven their ability to dominate key phases of the game. In contrast, the Renegades have struggled with execution and cohesion. Unless the Renegades deliver a near-perfect performance, Melbourne Stars are well placed to extend their winning record in this rivalry.
Melbourne Stars T20 History
| Matches | Won | Lost | No Result | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 77 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Melbourne Renegades T20 History
| Matches | Won | Lost | No Result | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 61 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
Head-to-Head Stats
| Matches | Stars Won | Renegades Won |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 18 | 10 |
Melbourne Stars have dominated the Melbourne derby, winning 18 of the 28 encounters against Melbourne Renegades.
Also Check: Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars Head to Head in T20 – Records, Team & Players Stats
Pitch Report
The Melbourne Cricket Ground usually offers a balanced surface. The new ball can assist fast bowlers early, while batters who settle in can score freely. Spinners play a holding role in the middle overs. A first-innings total of around 165–170 is competitive at the MCG, with chasing sides needing strong powerplay starts.
Weather Report
| Condition | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Temperature | 24–27°C |
| Rain | No rain expected |
| Wind | Mild |
Clear skies are expected in Melbourne, with no threat of rain. Conditions should remain ideal for cricket throughout the match, allowing a full 40-over contest.
Broadcast Details
The Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades match will be broadcast live on Star Sports Network, with live streaming available on JioHotstar for Indian viewers.
Toss Prediction
Teams winning the toss may opt to bowl first at the MCG to exploit early movement and assess conditions. Chasing has often been manageable if wickets are preserved in the powerplay.
Score Prediction
- If Melbourne Stars bat first: 163+
- If Melbourne Renegades bat first: 148+
Probable Batsman & Bowler
Probable Batsman: Sam Harper
Harper has been Melbourne Stars’ most consistent batter this season. His ability to score quickly and anchor the innings makes him the leading candidate to top-score in this derby.
Probable Bowler: Haris Rauf
Rauf’s pace and wicket-taking ability make him a constant threat. At the MCG, his bounce and speed could trouble the Renegades’ middle order significantly.
Also Check For More: Big Bash League Prediction
Match Prediction
Based on current form, squad balance, and historical dominance, the Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades prediction strongly favors Melbourne Stars. Unless the Renegades deliver an exceptional all-round performance, the Stars are expected to control the match and secure another derby victory.
Our Winner: Melbourne Stars Will Win.
Also, once the toss takes place, we might modify the Today Match Prediction as per the playing XIs. Please check this blog after the toss for the updated Prediction.
Disclaimer: Predictions are for entertainment purposes only. We don’t get involved in or promote betting or gambling. Also, We strongly discourage behaviors of participating in illegal activities related to cricket. Our experts try to be as correct as possible, but we do not guarantee 100% correctness.
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