India vs New Zealand Prediction, 1st ODI – India Tour of New Zealand 2026

The India vs New Zealand prediction for the opening ODI of India’s 2026 tour of New Zealand features two strong international sides beginning a five-match series at Eden Park, Auckland. The match is scheduled for Wednesday, 4 November 2026, at 7:30 AM IST (3:00 PM local time).

India will be captained by Shubman Gill in the first three ODIs, with Shreyas Iyer taking over the captaincy for the final two matches. Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, KL Rahul and several other experienced players are included in India’s initial squad.

New Zealand will be led by Mitchell Santner. Their first-three-match squad includes Michael Bracewell, Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Tom Latham and Will Young. Rachin Ravindra was originally included but subsequently ruled out of the ODI series with a shoulder injury.

India come into the ODI series after winning the preceding five-match T20I series 3-2. New Zealand’s 87-run victory in the fourth T20I demonstrated their ability to challenge India, while India’s 7-wicket win in the final T20I ensured they finished the series ahead.

The opening ODI is an important opportunity for both teams to establish an early advantage. India have considerable batting experience, but New Zealand’s familiarity with local conditions and their seam-bowling options make them dangerous opponents.

Match Details

India Last 5 ODI Matches

New Zealand Last 3 ODI Matches

India Preview

India have assembled an experienced squad for the New Zealand tour, combining established international batters with younger players who can provide additional depth. Shubman Gill will lead the team in the first three ODIs, while Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli provide considerable experience at the top of the order.

Rohit Sharma remains an important attacking option during the powerplay. His ability to take advantage of fielding restrictions could be valuable at Eden Park, where the relatively short boundaries offer scoring opportunities. Gill’s responsibility will be to provide stability and maintain a healthy scoring rate through the first 15 overs.

Virat Kohli is another major batting asset. His 124 in the third ODI against New Zealand in January demonstrated his ability to construct a substantial innings even when the opposition has established a challenging total. He will be particularly important if India lose early wickets.

Shreyas Iyer adds an attacking middle-order option, while KL Rahul provides wicketkeeping flexibility and experience. Ruturaj Gaikwad and Ishan Kishan offer additional batting choices, allowing India to adjust their combination according to the conditions.

The absence of Prasidh Krishna is a setback for India’s bowling depth. He was ruled out of the entire ODI series after failing to receive fitness clearance following a hamstring injury. Auqib Nabi has been brought into the first-three-ODI squad as a replacement.

Mohammed Siraj and Arshdeep Singh are expected to play important roles with the new ball. Siraj’s ability to maintain pressure through disciplined lengths and Arshdeep’s left-arm angle provide different challenges for New Zealand’s opening batters.

Kuldeep Yadav is likely to be India’s principal attacking spin option. His variations and ability to take wickets during the middle overs could be especially important against New Zealand’s experienced middle order.

Axar Patel and Nitish Kumar Reddy provide all-round depth, although Reddy is available only for the opening ODI before joining India A.

Powerplay: India should look to use Rohit’s attacking batting while ensuring Gill or Kohli can anchor the innings.

Middle overs: Kohli, Iyer and Rahul need to rotate strike against New Zealand’s spin options and avoid losing wickets in clusters.

Death overs: India have the batting resources to accelerate, but they must retain enough wickets to maximise the final ten overs.

India’s biggest concern will be the balance of their pace attack without Prasidh Krishna. If Siraj and Arshdeep establish early control, India have sufficient batting strength to challenge the hosts.

New Zealand Preview

New Zealand enter the opening ODI with the advantage of playing at home, but their squad has been affected by several important injuries. Mitchell Santner will captain the side, with experienced players such as Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips and Michael Bracewell forming the core of the batting and all-round combination.

Will Young is an important opening option. His ability to play both attacking and controlled innings gives New Zealand flexibility during the powerplay. Henry Nicholls and Tim Seifert are alternative opening options following Devon Conway’s absence from the first match.

Conway suffered concussion after colliding with Matt Henry during a training session at Eden Park on 3 November. New Zealand Cricket confirmed that he would miss the opening ODI. Tim Seifert has been named as his replacement.

Tom Latham is a crucial player in the middle order. His experience against quality international bowling gives New Zealand an option to rebuild after early wickets. Daryl Mitchell is another major batting threat, having scored 137 in the previous ODI series against India.

Glenn Phillips provides explosive middle-order batting and additional bowling options. His 106 in the third ODI in January demonstrated how quickly he can change the direction of a match. Michael Bracewell adds further all-round flexibility.

New Zealand’s bowling attack features Jacob Duffy, Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Nathan Smith and Blair Tickner. Henry’s availability requires attention following the training collision, although he had not been ruled out at the time of the latest official update.

Kyle Jamieson could be especially valuable at Eden Park. His height allows him to generate bounce, while his ability to extract movement makes him a threat against India’s top order.

Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell offer left-arm spin and off-spin options. Their ability to control the middle overs will be important against India’s technically strong batters.

New Zealand will also need to compensate for the absence of Rachin Ravindra and Mark Chapman, both ruled out of the series. Their absence reduces the team’s batting and all-round depth. Henry Nicholls and Dean Foxcroft have been included as squad additions for the respective stages of the tour.

Powerplay: New Zealand should use their seamers to exploit the conditions and target India’s opening batters.

Middle overs: Santner and Bracewell must prevent Kohli and Gill from building long partnerships.

Death overs: Daryl Mitchell and Glenn Phillips can provide batting acceleration, while the bowling attack needs disciplined execution against India’s finishers.

New Zealand’s biggest advantage is familiarity with home conditions. However, the injuries to key players mean they must rely heavily on their experienced core.

Team Squad & Team News

India ODI Squad – First Three ODIs

New Zealand ODI Squad – First Three ODIs

Important Team News

• Shubman Gill will captain India in the first three ODIs.
• Prasidh Krishna has been ruled out of the entire series.
• Auqib Nabi has been added to India’s first-three-match squad.
• Nitish Kumar Reddy is available only for the first ODI.
• Mitchell Santner will captain New Zealand throughout the series.
• Rachin Ravindra and Mark Chapman are unavailable for the series.
• Devon Conway has been ruled out of the opening ODI due to concussion.
• Matt Henry is being monitored following the training collision.

Probable Playing XI

Selection considerations:

• India have to choose between their additional batting options and bowling depth.
• Nitish Kumar Reddy’s inclusion in the first ODI provides an additional seam-bowling option.
• New Zealand may select Tim Seifert if they prefer a more aggressive opening combination, or Henry Nicholls for greater ODI experience.
• Matt Henry’s final availability must be confirmed before the toss.

Probable XIs are subject to official team announcements and the toss.

India vs New Zealand Head-to-Head – ODI Record

Last 5 Head-to-Head ODIs

Pitch Report

The Eden Park surface generally provides a competitive contest between batters and fast bowlers. The new ball can offer movement, particularly under cloudy conditions, while the relatively short boundaries allow well-timed shots to travel quickly.

New Zealand’s seam attack could benefit from the afternoon conditions. Kyle Jamieson, Jacob Duffy and Matt Henry, if fit, can use bounce and movement to challenge India’s top order. India will need their opening batters to avoid unnecessary risks during the first powerplay.

The middle overs could provide opportunities for spinners. Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell will look to restrict Kohli and Gill through changes of pace and disciplined lines. Kuldeep Yadav and Axar Patel offer India similar options against New Zealand’s middle order.

Eden Park’s dimensions also influence death-over strategy. Batters can target the shorter boundaries, but bowlers who execute slower balls and yorkers can still restrict scoring.

Pitch verdict: A balanced surface with good scoring opportunities and potential new-ball assistance for seamers. A competitive first-innings total should be around 270–290, depending on the amount of movement and the final surface preparation.

Weather Report

The forecast available on 3 November indicates mostly cloudy conditions with light rain possible in Auckland on Wednesday, 4 November. The forecast suggests a maximum temperature around 20°C and north-easterly winds.

The possibility of rain is the biggest concern ahead of the opening ODI. Cloud cover and moisture could help seamers generate movement with the new ball, particularly during the first innings.

A forecast of 2–5 mm of rainfall does not automatically mean a match interruption, but the possibility of showers should be considered. If rain reduces playing time, the DLS method could become relevant.

Dew is unlikely to be the primary factor in this afternoon-starting match. The teams should pay more attention to cloud cover, surface moisture and changing conditions.

DLS/Interruption Risk: Moderate

Weather forecasts can change, and the rain probability differs between forecasting providers.

Broadcast Details

Indian viewers can watch the India vs New Zealand 1st ODI live through the following platforms:

• TV: Sony Sports Network.
• Live streaming: SonyLIV.
• Match start: 7:30 AM IST.
• New Zealand coverage: Sky Sport.

The series is also listed for coverage on Sport Nation and The ACC in New Zealand. Wisden+1

Toss Prediction & Strategy

If India Wins the Toss

India should consider bowling first. Their pace combination of Siraj, Arshdeep and Kamboj can use the new ball to challenge New Zealand’s revised opening combination.

Chasing could also allow Kohli, Gill and Rahul to manage the required rate according to the target.

If New Zealand Wins the Toss

New Zealand should also consider bowling first. Their familiarity with Eden Park and the availability of tall seamers such as Jamieson and Henry, if fit, could give them an early advantage.

The hosts would then rely on Latham, Mitchell and Phillips to manage the chase.

Toss Prediction

Predicted toss winner: New Zealand

New Zealand are marginally favoured in the toss prediction. The recommended decision is to bowl first, considering the historical chasing record and the possibility of early seam movement.

ODI Score Prediction

Winning Chances

Why the Win Percentage?

Main Reasons Behind India’s Advantage

1. Stronger batting depth

Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer and KL Rahul provide India with an experienced batting combination. This gives them multiple options if the top order loses early wickets.

2. Virat Kohli’s record against New Zealand

Kohli has demonstrated his ability to handle New Zealand’s bowling attack. His century in the January ODI series is particularly relevant to this contest.

3. Spin bowling options

Kuldeep Yadav and Axar Patel give India the ability to control the middle overs. Their performances against New Zealand’s middle order could influence the outcome.

4. New Zealand’s injury problems

The absence of Rachin Ravindra and Mark Chapman, along with Conway’s unavailability for the opener, affects New Zealand’s batting balance. Matt Henry’s fitness is another important uncertainty.

5. New Zealand’s home advantage

Despite India’s stronger batting lineup, New Zealand have familiarity with Eden Park and won the previous bilateral ODI series 2-1. This prevents India from receiving a substantially higher probability.

Key ODI Player Matchups

What Could Prove Us Wrong?

Although India are marginal favourites, several match-specific scenarios could change the prediction.

1. New Zealand’s seamers dominate the powerplay: If Jamieson, Duffy or a fit Matt Henry dismiss Rohit Sharma and Gill early, India could struggle to establish a competitive total.

2. Daryl Mitchell produces another major innings: Mitchell’s previous 137 against India demonstrated his ability to dominate their bowling attack. Another substantial contribution could put New Zealand in control.

3. Virat Kohli loses his wicket early: India rely heavily on their experienced top order. An early Kohli dismissal could increase pressure on the middle order.

4. New Zealand’s replacement opening combination succeeds: With Conway unavailable, Nicholls or Seifert could provide an aggressive start and compensate for the missing opener.

5. Rain interrupts the contest: Auckland’s forecast includes a possibility of showers. A reduced match and DLS calculations could change the balance between the two sides.

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