Australia vs England Prediction: Who Will Win 5th Test Match on 4th January 2026?
The Australia vs England prediction for the 5th Test of the Ashes 2026 sets up a gripping finale at the Sydney Cricket Ground, where history, conditions, and momentum all intersect. Australia return to a venue that has traditionally been a fortress for them in Test cricket. They are unbeaten in their last 14 Tests at the SCG, a run stretching back to their loss against England in 2011. That alone tilts expectations in the hosts’ favor, even after their heavy defeat at the MCG in the fourth Test.
This series has swung dramatically. Australia dominated the opening three Tests through superior batting depth and relentless fast bowling, but England’s composed chase in Melbourne has injected fresh belief into the visitors. That win did more than just keep the series alive—it exposed vulnerabilities in Australia’s batting when early wickets fall and conditions favor seam movement. Still, returning to Sydney offers Australia familiarity, slower surfaces, and traditionally more help for spinners as the match progresses.
Weather may play a decisive role. Rain is forecast on days three and four, which could interrupt momentum and bring a draw into contention if batters are able to grind through long periods. However, teams batting first will still target a competitive first-innings score in the range of 280–300, knowing that scoreboard pressure is crucial in a final Test.
Emotion also adds a layer to this contest. This will be Usman Khawaja’s final Test match, and the left-hander’s record at the SCG makes him a key figure in this Australia vs England prediction. England, meanwhile, will rely on discipline with the ball and improved shot selection from their top order if they are to defy both history and conditions.
With pride, momentum, and the Ashes narrative at stake, the Sydney Test promises a tactical and tense battle.
- Australia are unbeaten in 14 Tests at the SCG since 2011
- England gained confidence after a strong chase in the 4th Test
- Rain may influence days three and four, increasing draw chances
- Batting first and crossing 300 will be a major advantage
Match Details
| Match | Australia vs England, 5th Test |
|---|---|
| Series | Ashes 2025–26 |
| Date | Sunday, 4 January 2026 |
| Time | 5:00 AM IST |
| Venue | Sydney Cricket Ground |
| Format | Test Match |
Team Preview
Australia Preview
Australia enter the final Test looking to reassert dominance after a rare off-day at the MCG. Their batting collapse in Melbourne highlighted an issue that has occasionally surfaced throughout the series—over-reliance on early momentum. Despite that, Australia’s overall batting record remains stronger than England’s across the five Tests.
Travis Head has been the standout performer, scoring freely at the top and putting England under pressure early. His aggressive approach has often forced fielding sides into defensive positions. Marnus Labuschagne has played the role of stabilizer, absorbing pressure through long spells, while Steve Smith continues to anchor the middle order with experience and tactical awareness.
Usman Khawaja’s farewell Test adds emotional weight. He has looked increasingly fluent as the series has progressed and will be keen to leave a final mark at his home ground. Alex Carey’s contributions lower down the order have been vital, repeatedly rescuing Australia from tricky positions.
The all-rounder slot remains the main selection debate. Cameron Green has struggled for consistency, opening the door for Beau Webster, whose domestic form suggests he could provide balance with both bat and ball.
Bowling remains Australia’s biggest strength. Mitchell Starc has led the attack with pace and movement, while Scott Boland’s accuracy has created sustained pressure. In the absence of Nathan Lyon, Todd Murphy will shoulder the spin duties, especially important on a surface that traditionally wears as the match progresses.
At the SCG, Australia’s ability to control sessions and adapt to changing conditions gives them a clear structural advantage.
England Preview
England arrive in Sydney with renewed belief after their memorable win in the fourth Test. That victory showcased improved temperament, especially in the fourth innings, where they resisted pressure and chased with clarity. However, consistency remains their biggest challenge.
Zak Crawley has been England’s leading run-scorer, though his returns have fluctuated between aggressive starts and soft dismissals. Joe Root has been reliable without being dominant, while Harry Brook and Ben Stokes have contributed in patches rather than commanding innings.
England’s batting still struggles to post large first-innings totals, which could be costly in Sydney where patience is often rewarded. Jamie Smith has shown promise as wicketkeeper-batter, but the responsibility on the top six remains heavy.
Bowling injuries have tested England’s depth. With key pacers unavailable, the workload has increased on Brydon Carse and Josh Tongue. Carse has been effective, combining bounce with discipline, while Tongue’s ability to extract movement has created opportunities.
Spin remains a mixed area. Will Jacks offers control but may need support if the pitch turns later in the match. England’s challenge will be maintaining intensity across long spells, particularly if rain interruptions disrupt rhythm.
For England to overcome Australia at the SCG, they will need near-flawless execution with the ball and a more substantial first-innings batting effort.
Team Squads
Australia:
Jake Weatherald, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Usman Khawaja, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Beau Webster, Michael Neser, Mitchell Starc, Todd Murphy, Scott Boland
England:
Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes, Jamie Smith, Will Jacks, Brydon Carse, Matthew Potts, Josh Tongue
Probable Playing XI
Australia:
Jake Weatherald, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith (c), Usman Khawaja, Alex Carey (wk), Beau Webster, Michael Neser, Mitchell Starc, Todd Murphy, Scott Boland
England:
Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jamie Smith (wk), Will Jacks, Brydon Carse, Matthew Potts, Josh Tongue
Dream11 Prediction for Today Australia vs England 5th Test
| Role | Players |
|---|---|
| WK | Alex Carey |
| Batters | Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Joe Root |
| All-rounders | Ben Stokes, Beau Webster |
| Bowlers | Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland, Todd Murphy, Brydon Carse, Josh Tongue |
The fantasy combination prioritizes players likely to influence multiple innings. Travis Head is a must-pick due to his ability to score quickly at the top. Usman Khawaja’s SCG record and farewell Test motivation make him a high-value selection. Joe Root remains England’s safest batting option.
Ben Stokes and Beau Webster add all-round value, contributing across disciplines. In bowling, Mitchell Starc’s wicket-taking ability with the new ball is crucial, while Scott Boland’s accuracy suits Sydney conditions. Todd Murphy becomes increasingly valuable if the pitch deteriorates. Brydon Carse and Josh Tongue provide England’s best pace threat.
Captain: Travis Head
Vice-Captain: Mitchell Starc
Players to Avoid:
- Jacob Bethell (limited Test exposure)
- Will Jacks (inconsistent with bat in Tests)
Also Check: Get The Best Dream11 Prediction From Cricket Experts
Favourite Team Today
Australia are the favorites in this match due to their exceptional record at the Sydney Cricket Ground and a more balanced squad. Their bowling attack is deeper and better suited to SCG conditions, while their batting has more proven Test match performers. England’s recent win boosts confidence, but injuries and batting inconsistency reduce their reliability over five days.
Australia Test History
| Matches | Won | Lost | Draw | Tied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 881 | 425 | 235 | 219 | 2 |
Australia are historically one of the strongest Test nations, especially at home.
England Test History
| Matches | Won | Lost | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1093 | 404 | 333 | 356 |
England’s longevity in Test cricket reflects depth but mixed overseas results.
Head-to-Head Stats (Australia vs England)
| Matches | Australia Won | England Won | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 365 | 155 | 113 | 97 |
Australia hold a clear historical edge, particularly in home conditions.
Also Check: Australia vs England Head to Head in Test
Pitch Report
The SCG pitch typically starts slow with even bounce, favoring batters who are patient. As the match progresses, footmarks develop and bring spinners into play. Fast bowlers can extract movement early with the new ball, especially in morning sessions. A first-innings score of 300 is considered strong.
Sydney Cricket Ground – Test Cricket Ground Records & Statistics
| Category | Record / Value |
|---|---|
| City | Sydney |
| Matches Played | 113 |
| Matches Won by Home Side | 62 (54.87%) |
| Matches Won by Touring Side | 28 (24.78%) |
| Matches Won Batting First | 47 (41.59%) |
| Matches Won Batting Second | 43 (38.05%) |
| Matches Won Winning Toss | 42 (37.17%) |
| Matches Won Losing Toss | 48 (42.48%) |
| Matches Drawn | 23 (20.35%) |
| Highest Individual Innings | 329* – M. J. Clarke (Australia), 03/01/2012 vs India |
| Best Bowling (Innings) | 8/35 – G. A. Lohmann (England), 25/02/1887 vs Australia |
| Best Bowling (Match) | 12/87 – C. T. B. Turner (Australia), 10/02/1888 vs England |
| Highest Team Innings | 705/7 dec – India, 02/01/2004 vs Australia |
| Lowest Team Innings | 42 – Australia, 10/02/1888 vs England |
| Highest Run Chase Achieved | 288/2 – Australia, 02/01/2006 vs South Africa |
| Average Opening Stand (Runs) | 34.47 |
| Average Runs per Wicket | 30.75 |
| Average Runs per Over | 2.89 |
| Average Score Batting First | 319 |
Weather Report
Sydney may experience intermittent rain on days three and four. Temperatures will remain moderate, and humidity could aid swing early. Weather interruptions may influence match momentum.
Broadcast Details
The Australia vs England 5th Test will be broadcast live on Star Sports Network. Live streaming will be available on JioHotstar with full match coverage.
Toss Prediction
The team winning the toss is likely to bat first to capitalize on the best batting conditions and avoid chasing on a worn surface later.
Probable Batsman & Bowler
Probable Best Batsman: Usman Khawaja
His record at the SCG and farewell Test motivation make him a strong candidate for a big score.
Probable Best Bowler: Mitchell Starc
Starc’s ability to swing the new ball and strike in bursts makes him Australia’s biggest weapon.
Match Prediction
This Australia vs England prediction leans towards Australia winning the 5th Test. Their SCG dominance, stronger bowling unit, and home advantage outweigh England’s recent momentum. Weather could push the game towards a draw, but if conditions allow, Australia are best placed to control the contest.
Our Winner: Australia Will Win
Also, once the toss takes place, we might modify the Today Match Prediction as per the playing XIs. Please check this blog after the toss for the updated Prediction.
FAQ – AUS vs ENG 5th Test
Where is the Australia vs England 5th Test being played?
At the Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney.
Who has a better record at the SCG?
Australia have an excellent record, unbeaten in 14 Tests since 2011.
Can rain affect the match result?
Yes, rain on days three and four could increase the chances of a draw.
Who is Australia’s key batter?
Travis Head and Usman Khawaja are key.
Who is England’s key bowler?
Brydon Carse has been their most consistent wicket-taker.
Is this Usman Khawaja’s last Test?
Yes, this is expected to be his farewell Test.
Disclaimer: Predictions are for entertainment purposes only. We don’t get involved in or promote betting or gambling. Also, We strongly discourage behaviors of participating in illegal activities related to cricket. Our experts try to be as correct as possible, but we do not guarantee 100% correctness.
Stay updated with all the cricketing action, follow Cricketwebs on WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
