Australia vs England Prediction: Who Will Win 4th Test Match on 26th December 2025?
The Australia vs England prediction for the 4th Test of the 2025 Ashes series heavily favours the hosts as the action shifts to the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground for the Boxing Day Test. While the Ashes urn has already been retained by Australia with an unassailable 3–0 lead, this contest still carries enormous prestige. Boxing Day Tests at the MCG are never treated as dead rubbers, and Australia, unbeaten in their last four Boxing Day fixtures, will be keen to maintain dominance in front of a massive home crowd.
From a tactical perspective, the Australia vs England prediction is shaped by conditions at the MCG. Data from the last five Tests here shows pacers claiming 124 wickets compared to just 50 for spinners, underlining the importance of seam bowling. Teams batting first generally aim for 300-plus to stay competitive, especially early in the match when the pitch offers pace and bounce. Australia’s fast-bowling depth and superior adaptation to local conditions give them a clear edge.
England’s struggles with the new ball remain a major concern. Beyond Joe Root and Zak Crawley, their batting order has repeatedly faltered against high-quality pace. Australia, even without a full-strength attack, continue to apply relentless pressure through disciplined bowling and sharp fielding. Travis Head’s outstanding form at the top has further tilted the balance, regularly allowing Australia to dictate terms early in matches.
England will view this Test as a chance to salvage pride and avoid a potential whitewash, but history at the MCG and current momentum suggest a tough challenge. The Australia vs England prediction therefore leans strongly towards another home victory, unless England can produce a rare collective batting performance and exploit early movement better than they have so far.
- Australia are unbeaten in their last four Boxing Day Tests at the MCG.
- Pacers dominate at Melbourne, making seam depth crucial.
- England’s top order beyond Root and Crawley has struggled badly.
- Australia hold a clear edge in form, confidence, and conditions.
Match Details
| Match | Australia vs England, 4th Test |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, 26 December 2025 |
| Time | 5:00 AM IST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne |
| Series | Ashes 2025 |
| Broadcaster | JioHotstar |
Australia Preview
Australia national cricket team have been ruthless throughout this Ashes series, dominating England across all three completed Tests. With an 8-wicket win in the opener, another commanding performance in Adelaide, and an 82-run victory in the third Test, Australia have exposed England’s technical and mental frailties. Even with the series secured, expect no let-up at the MCG, a venue where Australia traditionally raise their intensity.
The batting has been led by Travis Head, the standout performer of the series. With 379 runs at an average exceeding 60, Head has repeatedly seized control early, neutralising England’s bowlers and setting the tone for big totals. Marnus Labuschagne has played the anchor role effectively, while Steve Smith continues to provide composure and experience in the middle order.
Usman Khawaja’s return to form in the last Test was a timely boost, and Alex Carey has been a revelation lower down the order, contributing crucial runs under pressure. Cameron Green’s all-round value adds further balance, especially with his ability to bowl long spells if required.
Australia’s bowling has been equally dominant. Mitchell Starc leads the attack with 22 wickets, striking regularly with the new ball. Scott Boland has once again proven why he thrives at home, maintaining relentless accuracy and picking up wickets through pressure. With Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon ruled out, opportunities open for Todd Murphy and a seam replacement like Brendan Doggett or Jhye Richardson. Even with these changes, Australia’s bowling unit remains well-equipped for MCG conditions.
Overall, Australia appear settled, confident, and technically superior. Their ability to post strong first-innings totals and then suffocate England with pace bowling makes them formidable once again in Melbourne.
England Preview
England cricket team arrive at the MCG under immense pressure after losing the first three Tests convincingly. The Ashes are already gone, but England must now fight to avoid a morale-crushing series scoreline. Historically, teams in this position either collapse further or respond with fearless cricket—England need the latter.
Batting has been England’s biggest weakness. Joe Root has carried the lineup with 219 runs, while Zak Crawley has provided some resistance at the top. However, consistent collapses in the middle order have undermined England’s chances. Harry Brook and Ben Stokes have shown glimpses of form but lack sustained partnerships.
The potential inclusion of Jacob Bethell could inject freshness into the batting order, but relying on changes alone may not be enough. England need application against the new ball, particularly in the first hour, where they have repeatedly lost key wickets.
Bowling has been uneven. Brydon Carse and Jofra Archer were the brighter spots, but Archer’s absence further weakens the attack. Gus Atkinson and Josh Tongue will need to shoulder responsibility, while Ben Stokes must manage workloads carefully on a pitch that rewards discipline rather than sheer aggression.
England’s best hope lies in winning the toss, batting first, and posting a competitive total above 300—something they have failed to do consistently this series. Without that, Australia’s bowlers are likely to dominate once again.
Team Squads
Australia: Jake Weatherald, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Usman Khawaja, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Michael Neser, Mitchell Starc, Todd Murphy, Scott Boland, Jhye Richardson, Brendan Doggett
England: Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes, Jacob Bethell, Jamie Smith, Will Jacks, Brydon Carse, Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue, Matt Potts
Probable Playing XI
Australia:
Jake Weatherald, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith (c), Usman Khawaja, Alex Carey (wk), Cameron Green, Michael Neser, Mitchell Starc, Todd Murphy, Scott Boland
England:
Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jamie Smith (wk), Will Jacks, Brydon Carse, Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue
Dream11 Prediction for Today Australia vs England 4th Test
| Role | Players |
|---|---|
| Batters | Travis Head, Joe Root, Marnus Labuschagne |
| All-rounders | Cameron Green, Ben Stokes |
| Wicketkeeper | Alex Carey |
| Bowlers | Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland, Brydon Carse, Todd Murphy, Gus Atkinson |
This fantasy setup focuses on consistency and wicket-taking potential. Travis Head is a must-pick given his outstanding form, while Joe Root remains England’s most reliable run scorer. Cameron Green and Ben Stokes add value through dual contributions. Alex Carey offers steady points as a wicketkeeper-batter. The bowling unit prioritizes MCG-friendly pacers like Starc and Boland, supported by Carse and Atkinson, with Murphy as a spin option.
Captain: Travis Head
Vice-Captain: Joe Root
Players to Avoid: Ollie Pope, Matt Potts
Also Check: Get The Best Dream11 Prediction From Cricket Experts
Favourite Team Today – Australia
Australia are clear favourites due to superior form, home conditions, and depth in both batting and bowling. Their dominance throughout the series reflects not just skill but consistency, especially in exploiting English weaknesses against pace. The MCG historically suits Australia’s style, and their unbeaten Boxing Day record further strengthens confidence. England’s fragile batting order and lack of penetration in bowling make an upset unlikely unless Australia underperform significantly.
Australia Test History
| Matches | Won | Lost | Draw | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 880 | 425 | 234 | 219 | 2 |
Australia are one of the most successful Test nations, particularly dominant in home conditions.
England Test History
| Matches | Won | Lost | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1092 | 403 | 333 | 356 |
England have a rich Test legacy but struggle for consistency overseas.
Head-to-Head Stats (Tests)
| Matches | Australia Won | England Won | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 364 | 155 | 112 | 97 |
Australia hold a clear historical advantage, especially at home.
Also Check: Australia vs England Head to Head in Test
Pitch Report
The MCG pitch offers pace and bounce early, flattening slightly as the match progresses. Seamers dominate, particularly with the new ball, while spinners play a secondary role. First-innings totals above 300 are crucial to stay competitive.
Weather Report
Clear conditions are expected throughout the Test, with mild temperatures and minimal rain forecast, ensuring uninterrupted play across all five days.
Broadcast Details
The Australia vs England 4th Test will be broadcast live on JioHotstar, with comprehensive coverage including pre-match analysis and expert commentary.
Toss Prediction
The team winning the toss is likely to bat first, aiming to post a strong total before conditions ease for batting.
Probable Batsman & Bowler
Probable Batsman: Travis Head, Joe Root
Probable Bowler: Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland
Head’s aggressive starts have defined the series, while Root remains England’s backbone. Starc’s pace and swing suit MCG conditions perfectly, with Boland offering relentless accuracy.
Match Prediction
Based on form, conditions, and squad strength, the Australia vs England prediction strongly favours the hosts.
Final Prediction: Australia Will Win
Also, once the toss takes place, we might modify the Today Match Prediction as per the playing XIs. Please check this blog after the toss for the updated Prediction.
FAQ – AUS vs ENG 4th Test
Where is the 4th Test being played?
At Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne.
Who is the favourite to win the match?
Australia.
Which bowlers are key at the MCG?
Fast bowlers dominate at this venue.
Is the Ashes already decided?
Is the Ashes already decided?
Who has been Australia’s best batter?
Travis Head.
Who has scored most runs for England?
Joe Root.
Disclaimer: Predictions are for entertainment purposes only. We don’t get involved in or promote betting or gambling. Also, We strongly discourage behaviors of participating in illegal activities related to cricket. Our experts try to be as correct as possible, but we do not guarantee 100% correctness.
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