Victoria vs New South Wales Prediction, 6th Match, Australia Domestic One Day Cup 2026-27

Victoria vs New South Wales prediction becomes an intriguing contest as the two traditional domestic rivals meet in the sixth match of the Australia Domestic One Day Cup 2026-27 at Junction Oval, Melbourne. Both teams enter the game with a victory from their opening fixture, but they reached those wins in very different ways.

Victoria produced a remarkable chase against Queensland in Brisbane. Queensland posted 335/7, but Victoria reached 339/7 with one ball remaining, with Liam Blackford making an unbeaten 149 on List A debut and captain Will Sutherland scoring 100. Their ability to recover from 14/4 demonstrated considerable batting resilience.

New South Wales also began their title defence with a high-scoring victory. Queensland made 358, but NSW chased the target with 359/6 in 49 overs. Riley Kingsell scored 79, William Salzmann made an unbeaten 70 and Jake Scott finished with 52 not out, while Kurtis Patterson contributed a rapid 63 from 32 balls.

The match therefore brings together two sides that have already demonstrated strong chasing ability. Victoria, however, receive a major boost for their first home game of the season with Glenn Maxwell and Scott Boland joining the squad. Maxwell adds experience and explosive middle-order batting, while Boland strengthens an attack that will operate under lights for the first time at Junction Oval.

NSW remain the defending One-Day Cup champions and possess a strong combination of experienced batters and proven domestic bowlers. Their current squad, however, has several absences because of Australia and Australia A commitments.

The weather could also influence the contest. Showers are currently forecast for Melbourne, particularly later in the afternoon and evening, so the toss and timing of interruptions could become important.

Overall, this looks considerably closer than a simple form comparison suggests. Victoria have home conditions and added experience, while NSW have the confidence of defending champions and an impressive opening-round chase.

Match Details

Victoria Last 5 One-Day Cup Matches

Victoria therefore went 2-3 across their previous five One-Day Cup matches before their current-season win over Queensland. Their batting has produced some strong totals, but consistency was an issue during the previous campaign. The current-season chase of 339, however, changes the immediate picture because Blackford and Sutherland showed that the batting unit can absorb early pressure and still chase a substantial total.

New South Wales Last 5 One-Day Cup Matches

NSW won four of their previous five One-Day Cup matches and went on to win the 2025-26 title. Their recent record therefore provides stronger evidence of sustained List A consistency than Victoria’s previous five-match record. Their opening 2026-27 victory over Queensland also showed that the batting can handle a very high chase.

Recent Form Comparison

NSW have the stronger extended One-Day Cup record, but Victoria’s current-season performance was arguably the more dramatic of the two. Victoria chased 336 after losing four wickets for only 14 runs, whereas NSW chased 359 after losing three wickets for 134.

The difference may come down to bowling. NSW’s attack includes Sean Abbott, Ben Dwarshuis, Tanveer Sangha and Charlie Stobo, while Victoria now have Scott Boland alongside Will Sutherland, Sam Elliott and other developing bowlers. The first innings under lights at Junction Oval could therefore be decisive.

Victoria Preview

Victoria arrive at Junction Oval with considerable momentum after one of the most impressive opening-round chases of the competition. Queensland’s 335/7 appeared to put the hosts under significant pressure, particularly after Victoria slipped to 14/4. Instead, Liam Blackford and Will Sutherland produced a huge recovery, adding 152 for the fifth wicket before Victoria completed the chase with one ball remaining.

Blackford’s unbeaten 149 was particularly important because it demonstrated that Victoria’s batting depth is capable of recovering from a disastrous powerplay. Sutherland’s century provided the stability at the other end, and the pair ensured that the middle and lower order did not have to chase the entire target.

The return of Matt Short gives Victoria another experienced batter and all-round option. Glenn Maxwell’s inclusion is an additional major development. Maxwell can change the tempo of an innings quickly, particularly once the field spreads during the middle overs, while also providing an off-spin option if conditions favour it.

Victoria’s top-order combination remains less established than it might have been in a full-strength season. The team is carrying several younger players, and the ability to avoid another early collapse will be critical against an experienced NSW attack.

The bowling department now has Scott Boland, which significantly changes the balance of the side. Boland’s ability to extract movement and maintain disciplined lines is particularly relevant in Melbourne conditions. If there is cloud cover or moisture around the surface early in the game, his accuracy could create pressure during the powerplay.

Will Sutherland also gives Victoria valuable flexibility because he can contribute with both bat and ball. Todd Murphy provides a specialist spin option, while the remaining seamers can be rotated according to match conditions.

The powerplay is likely to be Victoria’s first major test. NSW possess aggressive top-order options and showed against Queensland that they can score rapidly in the first 10 overs. Victoria therefore need early wickets without allowing the fielding restrictions to turn into a scoring advantage for NSW.

During the middle overs, Maxwell and Sutherland could become particularly important. If Victoria lose early wickets, they may need to rebuild rather than attack immediately. If the top order survives, Maxwell can instead accelerate the scoring rate.

At Junction Oval, Victoria also have familiarity with the conditions. Their recent One-Day Cup win at the venue came against NSW in October 2025, although that match was much lower scoring than the recent opening round of the 2026-27 competition.

Victoria’s route to victory is relatively clear: survive the new ball, preserve wickets through the middle overs, and use Maxwell, Sutherland and the lower order to accelerate late. With Boland leading the attack, they also need to make the most of any early movement before the surface becomes easier for batting.

New South Wales Preview

New South Wales enter this match as the defending One-Day Cup champions and began their title defence with an impressive four-wicket win over Queensland. Chasing 359, NSW reached the target in 49 overs, showing that their batting unit can maintain a high scoring rate across a long chase.

Riley Kingsell provided the anchor with 79, while William Salzmann remained unbeaten on 70 and Jake Scott finished with 52 from only 39 balls. Kurtis Patterson’s 63 from 32 balls was another reminder of the attacking potential available near the top of the order.

The current NSW squad is different from the side that won last season’s title. Joel Davies is unavailable because of international commitments, while Jack Edwards, Liam Hatcher, Josh Philippe and Sam Konstas are also unavailable because of Australia or Australia A commitments. This means the squad relies more heavily on players such as Kurtis Patterson, Nic Maddinson, Lachlan Shaw, Riley Kingsell, Sean Abbott and Tanveer Sangha.

Lachlan Shaw has taken over the captaincy and already contributed 44 in the opening match. His leadership will be tested in an unusual day-night setting at Junction Oval.

The bowling unit remains one of NSW’s major strengths. Sean Abbott and Ben Dwarshuis offer experienced pace options, while Tanveer Sangha provides a specialist attacking spin threat. Charlie Stobo adds another seam option, and the combination gives NSW several ways to attack different phases of the innings.

Against Victoria, the new ball will be particularly important. If NSW can remove the Victorian top order early, they can expose a relatively inexperienced middle order before Maxwell and Sutherland settle in.

Sangha’s role may become increasingly important in the middle overs. Victoria have several right-handed batters and a strong preference for rebuilding through partnerships after early wickets. Breaking those partnerships can prevent the home side from building the platform required for a 280-plus total.

NSW also have considerable batting depth. The first match demonstrated that their lower middle order can contribute significant runs without requiring one batter to play a lone hand. The ability of Salzmann and Scott to finish the chase against Queensland was especially encouraging.

However, NSW’s bowling was expensive in Brisbane, with Queensland reaching 358. The attack took wickets but conceded at a high rate during a large portion of the innings. A repeat against a Victoria side containing Maxwell could become difficult to recover from.

The key for NSW will therefore be controlling the middle overs rather than simply looking for wickets. If they can restrict Victoria to a total in the low-to-mid 260s, their batting depth should give them a realistic chance. If Victoria reach 300 or more, the chase becomes significantly more demanding.

Also Check: Australia Domestic One-Day Cup 2026-27 Points Table, Most Runs, Most Wickets and Latest Stats

Team Squad & Team News

Victoria Squad

• Will Sutherland (c)
• Austin Anlezark
• Scott Boland
• Liam Blackford
• Harry Dixon
• Sam Elliott
• Harry Hoekstra
• Blake MacDonald
• Glenn Maxwell
• Tom Rogers
• Matt Short
• Doug Warren

Glenn Maxwell and Scott Boland are the major additions for this match. Maxwell returns to Victoria for the first time since September 2025, while Boland is returning for his first domestic match of the season.

New South Wales Squad

• Lachlan Shaw (c)
• Sean Abbott
• Oliver Davies
• Ben Dwarshuis
• Bryce Jackson
• Riley Kingsell
• Nic Maddinson
• Jack Nisbet
• Kurtis Patterson
• Will Salzmann
• Tanveer Sangha
• Jake Scott
• Charlie Stobo

Joel Davies is unavailable for selection because of international commitments. Jack Edwards, Liam Hatcher, Josh Philippe and Sam Konstas are currently in the subcontinent preparing for the Australia A series against India A. Ryan Hadley is also unavailable after a lower-back stress fracture suffered during pre-season.

Probable Playing XI

Probable XIs are subject to official team announcements and the toss.

Victoria vs New South Wales Fantasy / Dream11 Prediction

Captain Options

1. Glenn Maxwell — provides both batting explosiveness and potential overs.
2. Will Sutherland — coming off a century and can contribute with the ball.

Vice-Captain Options

1. Sean Abbott — experienced all-round contributor with wicket-taking potential.
2. Kurtis Patterson — produced an aggressive 63 in NSW’s opening match.

Players to Avoid

1. Players without a clearly defined batting or bowling role — their opportunity can be difficult to predict.
2. Unconfirmed fringe selections — avoid locking them into fantasy combinations before the official XI is announced.

Fantasy suggestions are for informational purposes only and are not guaranteed to produce points or returns.

Also Check: Get The Best Fantasy Prediction From Cricket Experts

Victoria vs New South Wales Head-to-Head

Across those five meetings, Victoria have won three and NSW two. The rivalry therefore does not provide a decisive advantage to either team.

Also Read: New South Wales vs Victoria Head to Head in ODI

Pitch Report

Junction Oval has generally produced balanced List A conditions rather than a surface that overwhelmingly favours either batting or bowling. The recent One-Day Cup scores illustrate the range: Victoria made 285 against Western Australia, while the Victoria-NSW meeting in October 2025 produced only 183 and 178.

The new ball should offer seamers some assistance, particularly if the surface contains moisture following the forecast showers. Boland’s accuracy could therefore be valuable during the first 10 overs.

As the ball becomes older, batting should become more manageable if the surface remains dry. The middle overs could favour spinners and cutters, particularly if batters attempt to attack too aggressively.

The match is being played under lights for the first time at Junction Oval. The transition into the evening could make conditions slightly different from traditional daytime matches, although the effect will depend heavily on cloud cover and whether rain interrupts the contest.

If play remains uninterrupted, a first-innings score around the upper 260s to 280s should provide a competitive platform. A score above 300 would put significant pressure on the chasing side.

Weather Report

The Bureau of Meteorology currently forecasts a medium-to-high chance of showers in Melbourne on Friday, with showers more likely later in the afternoon and evening. The match begins at 2 PM local time, so the timing of any precipitation will be particularly important.

DLS/Interruption Risk: Moderate

Rain is not certain, but the forecast is significant enough that both captains should consider the possibility of interruptions. If substantial overs are lost, batting strategy may change considerably and DLS calculations could make early wickets even more valuable.

Broadcast Details

The Victoria vs New South Wales match starts at 2:00 PM AEST / 9:30 AM IST on Friday, September 25. Australian viewers can stream the match through cricket.com.au, the CA Live app and Kayo Sports.

Victoria vs New South Wales Toss Prediction & Strategy

If Victoria wins the toss

Victoria should consider bowling first, particularly if there is cloud cover or moisture around the surface. The combination of Scott Boland and the new ball could provide an opportunity to attack NSW’s top order before the pitch becomes easier for batting.

A second reason is the possibility of later showers. If the forecast holds, Victoria may prefer to know the required target rather than potentially batting through an interruption.

If New South Wales wins the toss

NSW could also consider bowling first, although their decision would depend heavily on the weather at the time of the toss. Their opening match demonstrated that their batting can chase a very large target, while their bowling attack could benefit from early assistance.

If the surface looks dry and the weather appears stable, batting first becomes more attractive because a total around 280 could put pressure on Victoria’s relatively young batting unit.

Toss Prediction

Predicted toss winner: New South Wales

The prediction is based on no statistical certainty; the toss is inherently random. If NSW win it, bowling first would be the preferred tactical option given Victoria’s powerful chase against Queensland and the possibility of weather interruptions.

ODI Score Prediction

Projected Competitive Score

A competitive first-innings total at Junction Oval should be approximately 275–285, assuming 50 overs are completed.

A total around 260 would leave the batting side vulnerable if the chasing team preserves wickets. Conversely, reaching 290 or more would provide a meaningful advantage, particularly if the pitch becomes slower during the evening.

If Chasing

The recent Junction Oval evidence suggests that chasing is possible, but the quality of the target matters. A chase below 270 should be manageable for a strong batting lineup, while 290-plus would require sustained partnerships and a strong finish.

Weather could complicate this assessment because DLS calculations may alter the required rate if play is interrupted.

Winning Chances

Why the Win Percentage?

The main reason NSW receive the overall edge is their more consistent recent One-Day Cup record and the confidence gained from chasing 359 in their opening match.

Victoria’s biggest counterargument is the improvement in squad quality. Maxwell and Boland were not part of the opening-round XI, and their inclusion gives Victoria greater experience in both batting and bowling.

The weather also prevents a large probability gap. If the forecast showers arrive during the crucial second innings, the balance could change rapidly.

Key ODI Player Matchups

Key Batting & Bowling Targets

Expected Top Batter

Liam Blackford — His unbeaten 149 against Queensland showed exceptional confidence under pressure, and he now gets the opportunity to play his first major home One-Day Cup match at Junction Oval.

Expected Top Bowler

Scott Boland — The Melbourne conditions and possible early assistance make his control with the new ball particularly important.

Potential X-Factor

Glenn Maxwell — His return provides Victoria with an additional high-impact player who can influence the match through aggressive batting, off-spin and fielding.

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