Tasmania vs Victoria Prediction, 11th Match – Australia Domestic One-Day Cup 2026–27

Tasmania vs Victoria prediction slightly favours Tasmania ahead of the 11th match of the Australia Domestic One-Day Cup 2026–27 at Bellerive Oval, Hobart, on Saturday, 24 October. Tasmania have won two of their three matches so far, while Victoria have recorded one victory and two defeats. The home side’s stronger start and recent success against New South Wales give it a modest advantage, although Victoria have enough batting and bowling depth to challenge them.

Tasmania opened their campaign with a nine-wicket win over Western Australia, chasing 115 with ease. They then narrowly lost to South Australia in a high-scoring contest before defeating New South Wales by 57 runs under the DLS method. Those results demonstrate Tasmania’s ability to chase efficiently and remain competitive in rain-affected conditions.

Victoria began their campaign with a three-wicket win over Queensland after chasing 336. However, defeats against New South Wales and South Australia have exposed inconsistencies in their bowling and their ability to control opposition scoring. Their latest completed match ended in a 70-run loss to South Australia after conceding 311.

The match also presents a tactical contest between Tasmania’s home-ground familiarity and Victoria’s experienced batting lineup. Ben McDermott, Caleb Jewell, Jordan Silk and Jake Doran provide Tasmania with established domestic batting options, while Victoria can call on Marcus Harris, Peter Handscomb, Matthew Short and Will Sutherland.

Weather could be a significant factor. The forecast for Hobart indicates a chance of showers later on Saturday, making the toss and the timing of any interruption important. Both teams must be prepared to adjust their batting tempo if overs are reduced.

Tasmania have the stronger recent tournament record, but the historical rivalry has been competitive. If Tasmania’s top order establishes a platform and their bowlers control the middle overs, they could secure another home victory. Victoria’s best chance is to improve their bowling discipline and use their batting depth to put pressure on the hosts.

Match Details

Tasmania Last 5 ODI Matches

Victoria Last 5 ODI Matches

Recent Form Comparison

Tasmania have two wins and one defeat in the current tournament. Their 376/8 against South Australia showed considerable batting strength, while the nine-wicket chase against Western Australia demonstrated that they can finish a chase without unnecessary pressure. The DLS win over New South Wales also showed their ability to navigate a shortened contest.

Victoria have one win and two losses. Their successful chase of 336 against Queensland was impressive, but they have conceded 257 and 311 in their two defeats. Their bowling unit needs to be more consistent if they are to contain Tasmania on a ground where the hosts are familiar with the conditions.

Tasmania have the better current-season momentum. Victoria’s batting quality keeps the contest competitive, but their bowlers must deliver a stronger performance than they produced against South Australia.

Tasmania Preview

Tasmania have started the 2026–27 One-Day Cup with two wins from three matches. Their batting lineup has shown that it can adapt to different match situations, from a straightforward chase against Western Australia to a high-scoring defeat against South Australia. The key now is to combine their batting depth with more consistent bowling.

Powerplay: Build Without Losing Early Wickets

Caleb Jewell, Tim Ward and Teague Wyllie are among Tasmania’s top-order batting options. Ben McDermott also offers considerable experience and can help stabilise the innings if early wickets fall. Tasmania should look to make productive use of the fielding restrictions without turning the first ten overs into an unnecessarily risky phase.

Victoria have bowlers capable of exploiting early movement, including Fergus O’Neill and Will Sutherland. Tasmania need to avoid offering catches through ambitious shots before the batters are settled. A stable powerplay would allow Jordan Silk and the middle order to manage the innings according to the target.

Middle Overs: Partnerships and Strike Rotation

Jordan Silk’s role as captain and experienced batter is important in this phase. Jake Doran provides another option for building an innings, while Nikhil Chaudhary and Mitch Owen can contribute if selected and available. Tasmania’s 376 against South Australia illustrated their ability to maintain scoring momentum for 50 overs, even though the total was ultimately insufficient.

The challenge is to turn good starts into long partnerships. Victoria have enough bowling options to rotate their attack, so Tasmania should avoid allowing dot-ball pressure to accumulate. If the hosts preserve wickets through overs 11–40, they can target a strong finish.

Bowling: Control Victoria’s Top Order

Riley Meredith offers pace and wicket-taking potential, while Gabe Bell and Will Prestwidge provide additional seam options. Tasmania’s attack must be disciplined against Victoria’s aggressive batting, especially after Victoria chased 336 against Queensland earlier in the season.

The bowlers should focus on taking wickets at regular intervals rather than relying entirely on containment. Victoria have several experienced batters who can accelerate once settled, so allowing a long partnership could put Tasmania under pressure.

Death Overs and Tactical Priorities

Tasmania’s final-overs batting should be based on wickets in hand. If McDermott, Silk or Doran builds a platform, the all-round options can help accelerate. With the ball, Tasmania need to improve their ability to restrict the opposition after a strong start.

Their main concern is consistency. Conceding 383 to South Australia demonstrated that even a substantial batting effort can be wasted if the bowlers cannot contain the opposition. Tasmania should target a disciplined new-ball spell and make Victoria work hard for every boundary.

Key players: Ben McDermott, Jordan Silk, Caleb Jewell, Riley Meredith and Mitch Owen, subject to match-day availability.

Victoria Preview

Victoria have had a mixed start to the competition. Their three-wicket win over Queensland showed that their batting lineup can chase a large target, but defeats against New South Wales and South Australia suggest their bowling needs to improve. The team has experience and all-round options, but it must convert those resources into a more consistent performance.

Powerplay: Make the Most of the Batting Depth

Marcus Harris and Campbell Kellaway are among Victoria’s batting options, while Matthew Short provides an attacking presence when selected. Peter Handscomb’s experience can help the team recover if the opening overs produce early wickets.

Victoria should aim to start positively without allowing Tasmania’s seamers to dominate the first ten overs. If the top order survives the new ball, the middle order can take advantage of the ground’s scoring opportunities. However, losing multiple wickets early would expose Victoria’s recent inconsistency.

Middle Overs: Use Experience to Maintain Momentum

Handscomb, Short, Oliver Peake and Will Sutherland offer different ways to build an innings. Victoria’s successful chase of 336 against Queensland demonstrated that the lineup can score at a high rate when partnerships develop.

Against Tasmania, they need to maintain strike rotation and avoid prolonged periods without boundaries. The aim should be to enter the final 15 overs with enough wickets remaining for a late acceleration. If batting first, a total around 270 or higher would provide their bowlers with a useful target to defend, depending on the pitch and weather.

Bowling: A More Disciplined Performance Is Required

Fergus O’Neill, Will Sutherland, Todd Murphy and David Moody are among Victoria’s bowling options. Their main challenge is to prevent Tasmania’s experienced batters from settling into long partnerships.

Victoria conceded 311 against South Australia and 257 against New South Wales in recent matches. While the latter was affected by DLS, both results underline the importance of controlling the scoring rate. The bowlers must maintain consistent lengths and use variations intelligently rather than offering easy boundaries.

Death Overs and Tactical Priorities

Victoria need to make the most of their all-round depth in the final overs. Sutherland and Short can contribute with bat and ball, while the middle order provides additional batting resources. Their bowling at the death must be more accurate, particularly if Tasmania have wickets in hand.

Victoria’s best route to victory is to take early wickets, make Tasmania rebuild and then apply pressure in the middle overs. If they allow the home side to establish a strong platform, their recent bowling record suggests that defending a large total could become difficult.

Key players: Peter Handscomb, Matthew Short, Marcus Harris, Will Sutherland and Fergus O’Neill.

Team Squads and Team News

Tasmania Squad Pool

• Ben McDermott (wicketkeeper-batter)
• Jordan Silk
• Caleb Jewell
• Tim Ward
• Teague Wyllie
• Jake Doran (wicketkeeper)
• Nikhil Chaudhary
• Mitch Owen
• Bradley Hope
• Nivethan Radhakrishnan
• Aidan O’Connor
• Raf MacMillan
• Caelan Maladay
• Will Prestwidge
• Gabe Bell
• Riley Meredith
• Marcus Bean
• Matthew Kuhnemann
• Nathan Ellis
• Billy Stanlake
• Jackson Bird
• Beau Webster

Victoria Squad Pool

• Marcus Harris
• Campbell Kellaway
• Peter Handscomb (wicketkeeper-batter)
• Matthew Short
• Will Sutherland
• Oliver Peake
• Fergus O’Neill
• Todd Murphy
• David Moody
• Harry Hoekstra
• Liam Blackford
• Austin Anlezark
• Sam Elliott
• Doug Warren

Probable Playing XI

Probable XIs are subject to official team announcements and the toss.

Fantasy / Dream11 Prediction

Captain Options

1. Ben McDermott — an experienced batter who can make a substantial contribution if he gets established.
2. Matthew Short — his batting and potential bowling involvement offer multiple routes to fantasy points.

Vice-Captain Options

1. Jordan Silk — a reliable middle-order option who can help build the innings.
2. Will Sutherland — his all-round role can provide value with both bat and ball.

Fantasy suggestions are for informational purposes only and are not guaranteed to produce points or returns.

Last 5 Head-to-Head Meetings

Weather Report – Hobart, 24 October 2026

Forecasts indicate a cool-to-mild day with some sunshine early and a chance of showers later. The Bureau of Meteorology currently flags a very high chance of rain in the broader Hobart area, particularly later in the day, while another forecast gives a more moderate afternoon shower risk.

DLS/Interruption Risk: Moderate to High

Rain could interrupt the match, especially if showers arrive during the afternoon. The morning forecast is relatively more favourable, but a delayed start or interruptions later in the game could reduce the number of overs and make DLS relevant. Both teams should be prepared to adjust their scoring approach quickly.

Broadcast Details

The match is part of the Australia Domestic One-Day Cup 2026–27. Cricket Australia lists streaming through cricket.com.au and the CA Live app in many regions, with Kayo Sports available in Australia. Indian viewers have been directed to FanCode for One-Day Cup coverage, but check the platform’s match-day listing for confirmation of this specific fixture.

Toss Prediction and Strategy

If Tasmania Win the Toss

Tasmania could consider bowling first if the forecast suggests that rain or cloud cover may help the seamers early. Taking wickets before Victoria’s experienced middle order settles would put the home side in a strong position.

If the pitch looks dry and suitable for batting, setting a total is also a reasonable choice. Tasmania have already shown they can post a high score, but the possibility of rain means the captain should weigh the expected length of the match before deciding.

If Victoria Win the Toss

Victoria should consider bowling first if they believe early movement is available. Their priority must be to remove Tasmania’s top order before the hosts build a platform.

If conditions look suitable for batting and the forecast indicates a full match, Victoria could choose to set a target and use their bowling attack to defend it. However, the possibility of rain later in the day makes a flexible strategy essential.

Toss Prediction

Predicted toss winner: Tasmania.

This is a speculative prediction, not a statistical advantage. If showers are expected later, the toss-winning captain may prefer to bowl first, but the final decision should depend on the pitch inspection and the latest weather update.

ODI Score Prediction

Tasmania vs Victoria Winning Chances

Key ODI Player Matchups

These are tactical matchups based on the players’ roles, not claims of a specific head-to-head statistical advantage.

Key Batting and Bowling Targets

Expected Top Batter

Ben McDermott (Tasmania) — his experience and role in the top order make him a strong candidate to lead Tasmania’s scoring if he is selected and available.

Expected Top Bowler

Riley Meredith (Tasmania) — his pace gives Tasmania a potential wicket-taking option against Victoria’s top order.

Potential X-Factor

Matthew Short (Victoria) — his ability to contribute with both bat and ball could help Victoria close the gap if he makes a substantial contribution.

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