South Australia vs Tasmania Prediction, 5th Match: Match Preview, Playing XI, Dream11, Pitch & Weather

South Australia vs Tasmania prediction points towards a closely contested One-Day Cup game at Karen Rolton Oval, with Tasmania entering the match after a dominant opening victory while South Australia are still searching for their first completed result of the 2026-27 campaign. Tasmania began their season with a nine-wicket win over Western Australia at the WACA, while South Australia’s opening fixture against the same opponent was abandoned by rain after the Redbacks had reached 58 without loss in reply to WA’s 238/9.

The result leaves Tasmania at the top of the early points table with five points, including a bonus point, while South Australia have two points from their abandoned match. The One-Day Cup awards two points for an abandoned match and four for a win, with an additional bonus point available in qualifying circumstances.

South Australia nevertheless showed encouraging signs in Perth. Jake Fraser-McGurk struck an unbeaten 46 from 33 balls before the rain interruption, while Henry Thornton produced the standout bowling performance with 4/52.

Tasmania, meanwhile, made an emphatic statement with Riley Meredith taking 4/11 and Beau Webster claiming 3/31 as Western Australia were dismissed for 115. Mitchell Owen and Caleb Jewell then completed the chase inside 17 overs.

Match Details

South Australia — Last 5 Completed One-Day Cup Matches

South Australia’s most recent match was a heavy defeat to Queensland, where they were bowled out for 135 after Mitch Swepson took 7/28.

Their earlier loss to NSW was more competitive: South Australia scored 242/7, with Jason Sangha making 57 and Alex Carey 52, before NSW chased the target with seven wickets remaining.

Tasmania — Last 5 Completed One-Day Cup Matches

Tasmania’s current-season result changes the picture significantly. They dismantled Western Australia for 115 before reaching 117/1 in only 16.2 overs, with Riley Meredith and Beau Webster doing most of the damage with the ball.

Their previous One-Day Cup campaign was less consistent at the end, with defeats against WA and NSW, but Tasmania had already accumulated enough wins to reach the final. NSW eventually defeated them in a rain-reduced final.

South Australia Preview

South Australia begin this home fixture with a squad built around aggressive top-order batting and a mixture of experienced domestic bowlers and developing quicks. Jake Fraser-McGurk is the obvious attacking option at the top, and his unbeaten 46 from 33 balls in the abandoned WA match showed that he has already started the season positively.

The Redbacks also have Mackenzie Harvey and Henry Hunt available as top-order options, while Jake Weatherald brings additional experience. Matthew Gilkes provides wicketkeeping depth and another left-handed batting option. The challenge will be converting starts into a substantial 50-over total rather than relying excessively on the lower middle order.

Ben Manenti adds balance as an all-rounder and can be important during the middle overs. Nathan McAndrew also gives South Australia another seam-bowling and lower-order batting option, while Jerrssis Wadia provides an additional developing all-round option.

With the ball, Henry Thornton arrives with strong early-season momentum after taking 4/52 against Western Australia. His ability to attack the top order with the new ball could be crucial against a Tasmania batting lineup that includes several aggressive stroke-makers.

Wes Agar and Jordan Buckingham provide further pace options. Campbell Thompson has also been brought into the squad for this game, replacing Douwtjie Hoogenboezem and Lloyd Pope.

The powerplay will probably determine how much pressure South Australia can put on Tasmania. If Fraser-McGurk and the other top-order batters can score quickly without losing early wickets, the home side has enough batting to build a substantial total.

The middle overs could be more difficult. Tasmania have several players capable of controlling the scoring rate while also taking wickets, so South Australia will need to maintain strike rotation rather than allowing the run rate to stall.

At the death, South Australia need contributions from Manenti, McAndrew and the lower middle order. Their bowling plan should revolve around Thornton’s early impact followed by disciplined pace and spin through the middle overs.

What South Australia need to do to win: maximise the first 10 overs, preserve wickets through the middle period and prevent Tasmania’s all-rounders from controlling the chase.

Tasmania Preview

Tasmania arrive in Adelaide with considerably more momentum after their nine-wicket demolition of Western Australia. Their bowling unit dismissed WA for only 115, with Riley Meredith taking 4/11 and Beau Webster adding 3/31.

Meredith’s pace gives Tasmania a major powerplay weapon. He can challenge South Australia’s aggressive openers before they establish the innings. Matthew Kuhnemann provides a contrasting left-arm orthodox option, while Marcus Bean and Will Prestwidge add further seam resources.

The batting lineup is equally interesting. Mitchell Owen and Caleb Jewell combined for 76 during the opening partnership against WA, with Owen making 43 and Jewell finishing unbeaten on 41.

Beau Webster is central to Tasmania’s balance. His ability to contribute with both bat and ball reduces the pressure on the specialist players and gives captain Jordan Silk flexibility with his bowling options.

Tim Ward, Nikhil Chaudhary, Teague Wyllie and Jake Doran provide additional batting depth. Wyllie is one of Tasmania’s significant off-season additions after moving from Western Australia, and Cricket Australia identified him as one of the players expected to compete for a top-order position.

Tasmania’s middle overs should be built around partnership preservation rather than unnecessary acceleration. With Webster, Silk, Chaudhary and Kuhnemann available, the Tigers can maintain a stable innings before attacking the final 10 overs.

Their biggest tactical advantage is the combination of pace and all-round depth. If Meredith or another seamer takes early wickets, Tasmania can then use Webster and Kuhnemann to attack the middle order.

However, South Australia are a substantially different batting challenge from the WA side Tasmania faced. Fraser-McGurk can change the match in a few overs, so Tasmania cannot afford loose bowling during the opening powerplay.

What Tasmania need to do to win: attack South Australia’s top order early, keep Fraser-McGurk away from his preferred boundary areas and use their all-round depth to maintain pressure throughout 50 overs.

Team Squad & Team News

South Australia Squad

Wes Agar, Jordan Buckingham, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Matthew Gilkes, Mackenzie Harvey, Henry Hunt, Ben Manenti, Nathan McAndrew, Campbell Thompson, Henry Thornton, Jerrssis Wadia and Jake Weatherald.

Campbell Thompson comes into the squad, while Douwtjie Hoogenboezem and Lloyd Pope are replaced for this fixture.

Tasmania Squad

Jordan Silk (c), Marcus Bean, Nikhil Chaudhary, Jake Doran, Caleb Jewell, Matthew Kuhnemann, Raf MacMillan, Riley Meredith, Aidan O’Connor, Mitch Owen, Will Prestwidge, Tim Ward, Beau Webster and Teague Wyllie.

Teague Wyllie is a new addition to the Tigers after moving from Western Australia, while Marcus Bean is an uncapped left-arm quick included in the squad.

Probable Playing XI

Probable XIs are subject to official team announcements and the toss.

South Australia vs Tasmania Fantasy / Dream11 Prediction

Captain Options

1. Beau Webster — contributes in both innings and has already taken three wickets in the tournament.
2. Jake Fraser-McGurk — his aggressive opening role gives him a high-impact ceiling.

Vice-Captain Options

1. Riley Meredith — his 4/11 in Tasmania’s opening match highlights his wicket-taking potential.
2. Henry Thornton — already took four wickets against Western Australia.

Players to Avoid / Lower Priority

1. Campbell Thompson — newly added to the squad and his exact match role is not yet confirmed.
2. Aidan O’Connor — selection and workload remain less certain than Tasmania’s established bowling options.

Fantasy suggestions are for informational purposes only and are not guaranteed to produce points or returns.

Also Check: Get The Best Fantasy Prediction From Cricket Experts

South Australia vs Tasmania Head-to-Head

Last 4 Head-to-Head One-Day Cup Meetings

Tasmania have won three of the four One-Day Cup meetings, including the two most recent encounters. Their latest meeting saw Tasmania chase South Australia’s 195 with 39.4 overs, while Beau Webster made 78.

Pitch Report

Karen Rolton Oval has previously produced both high-scoring 50-over cricket and lower totals when conditions have helped the bowling side. The most extreme example was the 2023 Tasmania-South Australia match, when Tasmania reached 435/9 and South Australia responded with 398.

The more recent 2025 meeting against Western Australia was considerably lower scoring, with WA making 298/9 and South Australia being dismissed for 232. South Australia later chased 128 in a rain-reduced 25-over match, showing how dramatically the scoring environment can change with innings length and weather.

For this 50-over contest, the new ball should offer the seamers some assistance, particularly during the morning start. Once batters settle, the surface should provide enough value for stroke play, meaning wicket preservation through the middle overs could be more important than aggressive risk-taking.

If the pitch remains consistent, a side reaching 280-plus should have a competitive total. A score approaching 300 would put significant pressure on the chasing team unless the surface proves unusually good for stroke play.

Weather Report

The latest Bureau of Meteorology forecast for Adelaide on Wednesday, September 23 indicates mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, a minimum around 9–10°C and maximum around 25°C, with a 0% chance of rain in the Adelaide-area forecast. Winds are expected from the east to northeast at around 15–20 km/h, becoming lighter during the day.

DLS/Interruption Risk: Low

The current official forecast indicates no meaningful rain threat, so DLS is unlikely to be a major factor. The early start may provide slightly more favourable conditions for seam bowling before temperatures rise, while the absence of rain should allow the match to follow its full 50-over schedule.

Broadcast Details

The match will be available in Australia on Kayo Sports and cricket.com.au. Cricket Australia has confirmed that One-Day Cup matches are also available to viewers in India through FanCode. The match begins at 10:30am local time / 6:00am IST.

South Australia vs Tasmania Toss Prediction & Strategy

If South Australia Wins the Toss

South Australia should consider bowling first. The early morning start could give their pace attack an opportunity to attack Tasmania’s openers before the batting conditions become more comfortable.

Thornton’s recent form makes an early bowling assault particularly logical. If South Australia can remove one or two of Tasmania’s main batters inside the powerplay, they can expose the Tigers’ middle order earlier than planned.

If Tasmania Wins the Toss

Tasmania should also consider bowling first. Their opening performance against WA demonstrated how effective Meredith and the rest of the attack can be when they have the opportunity to attack the opposition’s top order.

A successful powerplay could put South Australia under scoreboard pressure and allow Tasmania to use Webster and Kuhnemann through the middle overs.

Toss Prediction

Predicted toss winner: Tasmania

The prediction is based only on the toss being inherently uncertain and Tasmania’s recent preference for bowling first, rather than treating the toss as a meaningful certainty.

ODI Score Prediction

Winning Chances

Why the Win Percentage?

The most important reason for the 56–44 projection is Tasmania’s bowling combination. Meredith’s 4/11 and Webster’s 3/31 in the opening match provide stronger recent evidence than South Australia’s one completed tournament game, although Thornton’s 4/52 prevents this from becoming a large probability gap.

The second major factor is all-round depth. Tasmania can use Webster, Owen and Chaudhary to spread responsibility across the innings, while South Australia will need their top order to make a substantial contribution.

Finally, Tasmania’s recent One-Day Cup record against South Australia gives them a historical edge, although the current personnel means that factor should remain secondary to present-day form and availability.

Key ODI Player Matchups

Key Batting & Bowling Targets

Expected Top Batter

Beau Webster — his all-round role gives him multiple opportunities to influence the match, and he has already started the season with three wickets.

Expected Top Bowler

Riley Meredith — his 4/11 against Western Australia makes him the bowler most likely to create early scoreboard pressure.

Potential X-Factor

Jake Fraser-McGurk — the right-hander can dramatically change the scoring rate during the powerplay, and he already scored 46 from 33 balls in the abandoned season opener.

What Could Prove Us Wrong?

1. Jake Fraser-McGurk dominates the powerplay: If South Australia’s opener survives Meredith and the other seamers, the home side could quickly move beyond the projected scoring range.
2. Henry Thornton strikes early again: Another strong opening spell from Thornton could expose Tasmania’s middle order and remove the advantage created by their recent win.
3. Beau Webster fails to influence both innings: Tasmania’s balance depends heavily on Webster’s ability to contribute in multiple disciplines. A quiet game from him could narrow the Tigers’ advantage.
4. South Australia’s middle order converts starts: If Manenti, McAndrew, Weatherald and the other middle-order options build a long partnership, South Australia could post a total above 300.
5. The pitch plays slower than expected: A lower-scoring surface would reduce the value of Tasmania’s recent high-tempo batting approach and could make South Australia’s home conditions more important.

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