Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Prediction, 5th ODI: Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka prediction for the fifth match of the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026 favours the hosts, but Sri Lanka have enough batting firepower to make this a competitive contest. Pakistan have won all three of their matches in the tournament: they defeated Sri Lanka by 37 runs in the opener, beat England by 87 runs, and then edged England by one wicket in Lahore. Their unbeaten run has already secured a place in the final scheduled for 31 October.

Pakistan’s first meeting with Sri Lanka was decided by a strong middle-order performance from Salman Ali Agha, who scored 107 from 90 balls in a total of 305. Shaheen Shah Afridi then led the bowling effort, helping Pakistan defend the total and win by 37 runs. More recently, Shadab Khan produced an unbeaten 113 from 96 balls against England, sharing a record 89-run last-wicket partnership with Haris Rauf to complete a remarkable chase.

Sri Lanka have also shown significant potential. After losing their opening match against Pakistan, they defeated England by two wickets in a high-scoring game in Rawalpindi, chasing 430 with one ball remaining. Pavan Rathnayake scored 130 from 106 balls, while Dasun Shanaka made 97 from 50 deliveries. That result demonstrated Sri Lanka’s capacity to chase a demanding target, although their bowling will need to be more economical against Pakistan’s deep batting lineup.

The tournament situation gives Pakistan greater security, while Sri Lanka need to use this fixture to strengthen their position ahead of their final league match. Pakistan’s home advantage, Shaheen’s new-ball threat and their recent success make them the more reliable pick. Sri Lanka’s recent scoring explosion means that Pakistan cannot afford to treat a large target as safe.

Match Details

Pakistan’s Last Five ODI Matches

Sri Lanka’s Last Five ODI Matches

Recent Form Comparison

Pakistan have won all five matches listed, including three in the current tri-series. Their results show strong batting depth: they have crossed 300 twice in this tournament and completed a difficult chase against England despite losing nine wickets. However, their latest match also exposed a middle-order vulnerability, as they slipped to 154/9 before Shadab Khan rescued the innings.

Sri Lanka have won three of their last five listed ODIs, but their results have been volatile. Their 430-run chase against England showed outstanding batting potential, while their 132 all out in the preceding ODI against England highlighted the risk of a collapse. Pakistan have the more consistent recent record, but Sri Lanka’s ceiling is high enough to challenge the hosts if their top and middle orders fire together.

Pakistan Preview

Pakistan arrive in Lahore with three consecutive wins in the tri-series and the confidence of having already qualified for the final. Their recent results have been achieved in different ways: a 37-run defence against Sri Lanka, an 87-run win over England, and a one-wicket chase against England in which Shadab Khan delivered a career-defining innings. The variety of these wins is a positive sign, but the latest game also showed how vulnerable Pakistan can become when the top and middle order lose wickets quickly.

Powerplay: Fakhar Zaman and the opening combination need to provide a stable start. Pakistan have enough depth to recover from early setbacks, but repeated powerplay wickets would place pressure on Babar Azam and Salman Ali Agha. Sri Lanka’s seamers will look to exploit that phase, especially if the new ball offers movement.

Middle overs: Babar and Salman are important for controlling the innings through partnerships and strike rotation. Salman already scored 107 against Sri Lanka in the first match of the tournament. Pakistan should use him and Babar to build a platform rather than relying on another lower-order rescue. Shadab’s recent century adds confidence to the lower-middle order, while Faheem Ashraf and Arafat Minhas offer further batting depth.

Death overs: Pakistan have shown they can accelerate late, but their last match was unusually dependent on Shadab and Haris Rauf. A more conventional finish—one where the top six leave enough wickets for the final 10 overs—would reduce the risk of another collapse. Their bowlers must also be precise at the death, given Sri Lanka’s ability to score heavily through Shanaka and Janith Liyanage.

With the ball, Shaheen Shah Afridi remains Pakistan’s main new-ball threat. He took four wickets against England on 25 October and had already claimed three against Sri Lanka in the first ODI. Haris Rauf supplies pace, while Abrar Ahmed, Shadab and Arafat Minhas give Pakistan spin options.

Pakistan’s main weakness is the possibility of a batting collapse after a good start. Against Sri Lanka, the key will be to avoid allowing Theekshana and Wellalage to dictate the middle overs. If Pakistan build a stable first 30 overs and maintain disciplined bowling at the end, they have the stronger overall combination.

Sri Lanka Preview

Sri Lanka’s recent ODI performances show both their potential and their inconsistency. Their 430/8 chase against England was extraordinary, with Pavan Rathnayake scoring 130, Avishka Fernando making 97 and Dasun Shanaka adding 97 from only 50 balls. That innings demonstrated how quickly Sri Lanka can change a match when their middle order has wickets in hand. However, their collapse to 132 against England on 27 September underlines the importance of a stable start.

Powerplay: Pathum Nissanka’s availability needs to be confirmed, as Sri Lanka Cricket’s original squad announcement stated that he would travel only if medically fit. Avishka Fernando is an important attacking option, while Kamil Mishara provides another opening possibility. Sri Lanka need to avoid early wickets against Shaheen and Naseem Shah, whose pace could expose any uncertainty outside off stump.

Middle overs: Rathnayake’s century against England has strengthened his case as a key batter. Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis and Janith Liyanage provide additional options for rotating strike and attacking spin. Sri Lanka’s best approach is to keep the required run rate manageable and preserve enough wickets for Shanaka to attack later. The 430-run chase proved they can accelerate, but such a performance should not be treated as a standard expectation.

Death overs: Shanaka is the obvious late-innings power hitter. His 97 from 50 balls against England showed the damage he can do once established. Liyanage also contributed an unbeaten 61 from 27 balls in that match. Pakistan will likely focus on denying these players easy boundary options with yorkers, slower balls and changes of pace.

Sri Lanka’s bowling options include Dushmantha Chameera, Asitha Fernando, Dilshan Madushanka, Maheesh Theekshana and Dunith Wellalage. The challenge is to control Pakistan’s scoring through the middle overs and take wickets before Salman or Babar can build a long partnership. Sri Lanka’s 430-run chase came at a cost of eight wickets, and their bowlers need to deliver a more balanced performance if the team is to win.

Sri Lanka’s route to victory is clear: make early inroads with the ball, avoid another top-order collapse, and ensure Shanaka and the lower-middle order have enough deliveries to attack.

Team Squad & Team News

Pakistan Squad

Shaheen Shah Afridi (captain), Abrar Ahmed, Salman Ali Agha, Arafat Minhas, Babar Azam, Faheem Ashraf, Fakhar Zaman, Maaz Sadaqat, Muhammad Ghazi Ghori (wicketkeeper), Haris Rauf, Hasan Nawaz, Naseem Shah, Razaullah, Saad Baig (wicketkeeper), Sahibzada Farhan and Shadab Khan.

Sri Lanka Squad

Kusal Mendis (captain), Sahan Arachchige, Dushmantha Chameera, Sachindu Colombage, Avishka Fernando, Asitha Fernando, Janith Liyanage, Dilshan Madushanka, Eshan Malinga, Kamindu Mendis, Kamil Mishara, Pathum Nissanka, Pavan Rathnayake, Dasun Shanaka, Maheesh Theekshana and Dunith Wellalage.

Availability note: Pathum Nissanka’s original squad announcement included a medical-fitness condition. His participation should be checked against the official team announcement before the match. No other late injury or replacement update has been independently confirmed for this preview.

Probable Playing XI

Probable XIs are subject to official team announcements and the toss.

SL vs PAK Fantasy / Dream11 Prediction

Salman Ali Agha has already scored a century against Sri Lanka in this tournament, while Shadab Khan’s unbeaten 113 against England makes him an attractive all-round option. Shaheen’s wicket-taking record in the series and Rathnayake’s recent century also make them strong candidates.

Captain Options

1. Salman Ali Agha — scored 107 against Sri Lanka in the first match and can anchor the middle order.
2. Shadab Khan — his unbeaten century against England highlights his batting upside, alongside his spin role.

Vice-Captain Options

1. Pavan Rathnayake — scored 130 in Sri Lanka’s record chase against England.
2. Shaheen Shah Afridi — Pakistan’s leading new-ball threat, with four wickets in the latest match against England.

Fantasy suggestions are for informational purposes only and are not guaranteed to produce points or returns.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Head-to-Head — ODI Record

Last Five Head-to-Head ODIs

Pitch Report

Gaddafi Stadium has supported both substantial first-innings totals and successful chases. The historical average first-innings score of 259 suggests that a score in the upper 200s can be competitive, while Pakistan’s latest successful chase of 242 demonstrates that a moderate target can still require disciplined batting when wickets fall.

The first 10 overs should be important for both teams. Pakistan’s fast bowlers, particularly Shaheen Shah Afridi and Naseem Shah if selected, will look to use the new ball to attack Sri Lanka’s top order. Sri Lanka’s seamers will need to challenge Pakistan’s openers rather than allow Babar Azam and Salman Ali Agha to settle.

Through the middle overs, spin could influence the scoring rate. Abrar Ahmed and Shadab Khan give Pakistan wicket-taking options, while Theekshana and Wellalage can target Pakistan’s middle order. The batting side that rotates strike consistently and avoids losing wickets in clusters should have the advantage.

Warm, dry conditions are forecast, and there is no strong reason to make dew a major factor for this afternoon start. The final pitch assessment should be updated after the surface is inspected at the toss.

Weather Report

The latest available forecast for Lahore on 27 October indicates sunny conditions, with daytime temperatures around 27–28°C in the Met Office forecast.

DLS/Interruption Risk: Low

The forecast points to a low risk of rain interruption, which should allow both teams to plan for a full 50-over contest. Dry conditions mean there is little reason to expect weather to materially change the prediction.

Broadcast Details

The PCB’s broadcast advisory lists regional coverage for the tri-series. In Pakistan, matches are scheduled for PTV Sports, with streaming through the PCB Live app, Tapmad and Tamasha. Other listed options include Willow TV in North America, Sky Sports in the UK, Dialog and Peo TV in Sri Lanka, and Veto digital in India. Confirm local availability before the match.

• Match: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka, 5th ODI
• Start time: 1:30 PM IST
• Pakistan: PTV Sports; PCB Live app, Tapmad and Tamasha
• India: Veto digital listing
• International: Regional rights vary by country

Toss Prediction & Strategy

If Pakistan wins the toss

Pakistan could choose to bat first if the pitch looks good for stroke play. Their batting lineup has the capacity to build a total above 280, and the historical venue average suggests that a substantial first-innings score can create pressure. Their bowling unit then has the pace and spin options to defend it.

If Sri Lanka wins the toss

Sri Lanka may also consider batting first if the surface looks dry and stable. Their recent 430-run chase against England showed their ability to handle pressure, but it also required a major contribution from the middle order. Setting a target could allow Shanaka and the bowlers to plan more aggressively around Pakistan’s key batters.

ODI Score Prediction

Winning Chances

Why the Win Percentage?

Main Reasons Behind the Prediction

1. Pakistan’s unbeaten tournament run: Three wins from three matches, including a win over Sri Lanka, provide the strongest current evidence in Pakistan’s favour.
2. A stronger new-ball threat: Shaheen’s recent four-wicket performance gives Pakistan a clear wicket-taking option against Sri Lanka’s top order.
3. Sri Lanka’s batting remains dangerous: The 430-run chase against England prevents Pakistan from being overwhelming favourites. Rathnayake, Shanaka and Liyanage have demonstrated that they can accelerate rapidly.
4. Pakistan’s middle-order risk: Their latest one-wicket win exposed the danger of a collapse. If Sri Lanka dismiss Babar and Salman early, the hosts’ advantage will narrow.
5. Home conditions and familiarity: Pakistan have already played at Gaddafi Stadium in this tournament and know what is required to chase or defend a competitive total.

Key ODI Player Matchups

Key Batting & Bowling Targets

Expected Top Batter

Salman Ali Agha (Pakistan) — His 107 against Sri Lanka in the opening match makes him a strong candidate to anchor the innings again. If he builds a partnership with Babar, Pakistan could set a challenging target.

Expected Top Bowler

Shaheen Shah Afridi (Pakistan) — Shaheen has taken seven wickets in three tri-series matches, according to the PCB’s latest report, and took four wickets against England in Lahore. His opening spell could put Sri Lanka under immediate pressure.

Potential X-Factor

Pavan Rathnayake (Sri Lanka) — His 130 against England showed that he can sustain a high scoring rate over a long innings. If he carries that form into the Pakistan match, Sri Lanka have a realistic chance of challenging the hosts.

Stay updated with all the cricketing action, follow Cricketwebs on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

Legal Disclaimer: All content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Cricketwebs does not promote betting or gambling.