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India have had a stellar Champions Trophy 2025 campaign, securing back-to-back wins over Bangladesh and Pakistan. Under the leadership of Rohit Sharma, the Men in Blue have already sealed their spot in the semifinal.
Meanwhile, Australia confirmed their semifinal berth after their rain-abandoned match against Afghanistan at Lahore’s Gaddafi Stadium.
Table of content
Why Would India Want to Avoid Australia in the Semifinal?
1. India’s ODI Record vs Australia Since 2023
| Matches Played | Won | Lost |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | 4 |
Since 2023, India and Australia have faced each other eight times in ODIs, with both teams winning four matches each. However, Australia has dominated India in crucial knockout matches, including:
- 2023 World Cup Final (Australia won)
- 2023 World Test Championship Final (Australia won)
Additionally, while India have been a stronger T20I team, Australia have been more consistent in the longer formats. Since January 2023, they have won nine Tests and ODIs against India while losing only seven.
Given this record, India might prefer facing South Africa or Afghanistan rather than a knockout battle against Australia.
2. The Travis Head X-Factor
| Format | Runs | Average | Strike Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 1260 | 57.27 | 95.96 |
| ODIs vs India | 226 | 75.33 | 118.32 |
Travis Head has been a nightmare for India in big games. His fearless approach and ability to attack in powerplays have made him a game-changer. Given that the Dubai pitch has been tricky for batters, Head’s explosive starts could put India in trouble early on.
How Can India Avoid Facing Australia in the Semifinal?
India’s semifinal opponent will be determined based on the results of the final group-stage matches. Here’s how things could play out:
Case 1: If South Africa Defeat England
- South Africa will finish as the top-ranked team in Group B.
- If India lose to New Zealand, they will finish second in Group A and face South Africa in the semifinal.
- However, if India beat New Zealand, they will finish first in Group A and face Australia in the semifinal.
Case 2: If England Defeat South Africa
- Australia will finish as the top-ranked team in Group B.
- If India lose to New Zealand, they will finish second in Group A and face Australia in the semifinal.
- If India beat New Zealand, they will finish first in Group A and face either South Africa or Afghanistan (depending on NRR).
The Ideal Scenario for India
For India to avoid Australia in the semifinal, they should hope that:
✅ South Africa beat England
✅ India lose to New Zealand
This would set up a India vs South Africa semifinal, keeping Australia and Travis Head away—at least until the final!
