England vs Sri Lanka Prediction, 3rd ODI: Match Preview, Playing XI, Dream11, Pitch Report & Winning Chance
England vs Sri Lanka prediction for the third ODI at the Kennington Oval is difficult to separate into a clear one-sided contest because the three-match series is level at 1-1. England won the opening ODI at Chester-le-Street by 89 runs before Sri Lanka produced a strong response at Headingley, winning the second match by 16 runs. The decider will therefore determine the winner of the ODI series.
The second ODI was particularly significant because Sri Lanka posted 321/6 and then defended the total despite England reaching 305/9. Kusal Mendis produced the defining innings with 121 from 100 balls, while England’s Tom Banton made 73 and Jos Buttler scored 69. Buttler’s hamstring injury, however, has now ruled him out of the series decider.
England still enter the decider with a strong recent ODI record. Before the current series, they had won two of three ODIs against India in July, including a 387/3 total at Lord’s, and they subsequently won the first ODI against Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s recent ODI record before this series was less consistent, with their five-match July series against New Zealand ending 2-3.
The home side will now need to adjust its batting and wicketkeeping combination without Buttler. Dan Lawrence has been called into the squad as cover, while Jordan Cox provides another wicketkeeping option. England also continue without several players who were unavailable for the original squad, including Phil Salt, Sam Curran and Jacob Bethell.
Sri Lanka, meanwhile, have gained considerable confidence from the Headingley victory. Their challenge is to reproduce that batting discipline against an England attack operating at The Oval, where the historical ODI record slightly favours chasing sides.
Match Details
| Match | Date | Time | Venue | Tournament/Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England vs Sri Lanka, 3rd ODI | 27 September 2026 | 3:00 PM IST | Kennington Oval, London | Sri Lanka Tour of England 2026 |
England Last 5 ODI Matches
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score | Opponent Score | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | Sri Lanka | Lost | 305/9 | 321/6 | Lost by 16 runs |
| 22 Sep 2026 | Sri Lanka | Won | 265 | 176 | Won by 89 runs |
| 19 Jul 2026 | India | Won | 387/3 | 360/7 | Won by 27 runs |
| 16 Jul 2026 | India | Won | 235/6 | 233 | Won by 4 wickets |
| 14 Jul 2026 | India | Lost | 258 | 262/4 | Lost by 6 wickets |
England therefore have 3 wins and 2 losses from their last five ODIs. Their batting has been capable of producing very high totals, particularly the 387/3 against India, but the second ODI against Sri Lanka showed that even a 305/9 chase can fall short when the opposition controls the final stages.
Sri Lanka Last 5 ODI Matches
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score | Opponent Score | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | England | Won | 321/6 | 305/9 | Won by 16 runs |
| 22 Sep 2026 | England | Lost | 176 | 265 | Lost by 89 runs |
| 21 Jul 2026 | New Zealand | Won | 269/8 | 268/9 | Won by 2 wickets |
| 19 Jul 2026 | New Zealand | Lost | 188 | 189/9 | Lost by 1 wicket |
| 16 Jul 2026 | New Zealand | Lost | 140 | 141/4 | Lost by 6 wickets |
Sri Lanka have 2 wins and 3 losses across these five matches. Their recent results show significant variation: they chased 269 successfully against New Zealand and then produced 321/6 against England, but they also suffered several low-scoring defeats during the New Zealand series.
The current series has nevertheless changed the momentum. Sri Lanka’s ability to recover from the 89-run defeat in the first ODI and win at Headingley means their batting unit enters the decider with evidence that it can compete against England’s attack.
England Preview
England’s ODI campaign against Sri Lanka has developed into a genuine series contest. After winning the first ODI by 89 runs, they appeared in control, but Sri Lanka’s 321/6 in the second match changed the equation. England subsequently reached 305/9 but could not finish the chase.
The biggest change for England is the absence of Jos Buttler. Buttler scored 69 from 49 balls in the second ODI despite suffering a hamstring injury and has now been ruled out of the decider. Dan Lawrence has been called into the squad, while Jordan Cox is an available wicketkeeping option.
England’s top order remains the foundation. Tom Banton and Ben Duckett have opened during the ODI series, with Joe Root and Harry Brook providing experience through the middle. Banton’s 73 in the second ODI helped establish a strong chase, while Brook’s ability to accelerate remains important when England reach the middle overs.
The middle order now has a slightly different complexion. Without Buttler, Will Jacks and Jamie Overton may carry greater responsibility for finishing, while Jordan Cox could provide additional wicketkeeping and batting flexibility. England also have Liam Dawson and Rehan Ahmed as spin-bowling options.
Rehan has already shown his value in the current series. He took 2/48 in the second ODI, while Gus Atkinson also claimed two wickets. England’s attack therefore has both seam and spin options, although Adil Rashid remains unavailable after his hand injury.
Powerplay
England’s opening partnership is critical. Banton and Duckett have demonstrated that they can score quickly, but Sri Lanka’s new-ball attack will look to prevent another fast start.
Middle Overs
Joe Root and Harry Brook will be particularly important against Sri Lanka’s spin. England have also worked specifically on improving their approach against spin, with Kevin Pietersen involved as a specialist mentor.
Death Overs
This is where Buttler’s absence could be most noticeable. England still have Jacks and Overton, but the finishing responsibility is now spread across more players rather than concentrated around one experienced finisher.
What England Need to Do
England need to avoid losing several wickets between overs 30 and 45. Their first ODI victory showed the value of controlling the middle overs, while the second match demonstrated how quickly Sri Lanka can turn a chase when England lose momentum.
Sri Lanka Preview
Sri Lanka arrive at The Oval with the series level after an important victory at Headingley. Their 321/6 was built around Kusal Mendis’ 121 from 100 balls, supported by Kamindu Mendis’ 54 and Pavan Rathnayake’s 48.
Kusal Mendis is particularly important because he combines captaincy and wicketkeeping with a major top-order batting role. His century in the second ODI came at a strike rate above 120 and gave Sri Lanka the platform required to post a score above 320.
Pathum Nissanka provides attacking intent at the top, while Kamindu Mendis, Charith Asalanka and Janith Liyanage provide options through the middle. Pavan Rathnayake’s contribution in the second ODI also demonstrated the value of Sri Lanka’s developing middle order.
Sri Lanka’s bowling attack has become increasingly important during the series. Dunith Wellalage was the key bowler in the second ODI, taking 3/49, while Dilshan Madushanka and Eshan Malinga each claimed two wickets. Their ability to combine variations with disciplined death bowling ultimately stopped England from completing the chase.
The spin component is another major tactical weapon. Wellalage and Sachindu Colombage can attack England’s middle order, while the seamers can exploit the early movement that is often available in English conditions.
Powerplay
Sri Lanka need to prevent England’s openers from establishing another rapid partnership. Their first ODI defeat showed the consequences of allowing England to build scoreboard pressure.
Middle Overs
Wellalage’s role could be decisive. His three wickets in the second ODI changed England’s chase, including the dismissal of Ben Duckett.
Death Overs
Sri Lanka’s late-innings bowling was excellent in Leeds. Madushanka’s final over removed Buttler and sealed the match, while the pace unit also restricted Will Jacks.
What Sri Lanka Need to Do
Sri Lanka need another substantial first-innings platform or a controlled chase. Their best route is to keep Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis and their middle order involved deep into the innings while using Wellalage and the seamers strategically.
Team Squad & Team News
England ODI Squad
Harry Brook (c), Rehan Ahmed, Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Tom Banton, Sonny Baker, Jos Buttler, Jordan Cox, Henry Crocombe, Liam Dawson, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Jamie Overton, Adil Rashid, Joe Root and Josh Tongue.
Latest update: Jos Buttler is ruled out of the third ODI with a hamstring injury suffered during the second ODI. Dan Lawrence has been called into the squad as cover.
Phil Salt and Sam Curran were already unavailable for the series because of injuries, while Jacob Bethell was continuing his rehabilitation following knee surgery. Adil Rashid is also unavailable for this series because of a hand injury.
Sri Lanka ODI Squad
Kusal Mendis (c/wk), Charith Asalanka, Kamil Mishara, Pathum Nissanka, Pavan Rathnayake, Wanindu Hasaranga, Janith Liyanage, Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka, Dushmantha Chameera, Sachindu Colombage, Asitha Fernando, Dilshan Madushanka, Eshan Malinga, Maheesh Theekshana and Dunith Wellalage.
Sri Lanka’s ODI squad was announced separately from the T20I group. Kusal Mendis and Binura Fernando were initially unavailable for the T20I leg because of rehabilitation, but Kusal Mendis is leading the ODI side and has subsequently played both ODIs in the current series.
Probable Playing XI
| England Probable XI | Sri Lanka Probable XI |
|---|---|
| Tom Banton | Pathum Nissanka |
| Ben Duckett | Kamindu Mendis |
| Joe Root | Kusal Mendis (c, wk) |
| Harry Brook (c) | Pavan Rathnayake |
| Jordan Cox (wk) | Charith Asalanka |
| Will Jacks | Janith Liyanage |
| Rehan Ahmed | Dunith Wellalage |
| Jamie Overton | Sachindu Colombage |
| Gus Atkinson | Eshan Malinga |
| Jofra Archer | Dilshan Madushanka |
| Josh Tongue | Asitha Fernando |
England’s combination is the less certain of the two because Buttler’s injury creates a new wicketkeeping and batting decision. Jordan Cox is a logical wicketkeeping option, while Dan Lawrence has only just been added to the squad and should not automatically be treated as a confirmed XI selection.
The Sri Lankan combination is based largely on the XI that produced the 16-run victory in Leeds, with Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis, Wellalage, Madushanka and Eshan Malinga all making significant contributions.
Probable XIs are subject to official team announcements and the toss.
England vs Sri Lanka Fantasy / Dream11 Prediction 3rd ODI
| Role | Fantasy Picks |
|---|---|
| Wicketkeeper | Kusal Mendis, Jordan Cox |
| Batters | Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Duckett, Pathum Nissanka |
| All-rounders | Will Jacks, Dunith Wellalage, Jamie Overton |
| Bowlers | Jofra Archer, Rehan Ahmed, Dilshan Madushanka |
Captain Options
- Kusal Mendis — He scored 121 in the second ODI and combines batting with wicketkeeping involvement.
- Joe Root — His position and ability to bat deep make him a strong ODI fantasy option.
Vice-Captain Options
- Harry Brook — He provides top-order scoring potential and additional part-time bowling possibilities.
- Dunith Wellalage — His three wickets in the second ODI demonstrate the fantasy upside from his all-round role.
Players to Avoid
- Dan Lawrence — He has only just been added to the squad as cover, so his involvement is uncertain.
- Sonny Baker — His exact role is less secure than the established bowling options in the current series.
Fantasy suggestions are for informational purposes only and are not guaranteed to produce points or returns.
Also Check: Get The Best Fantasy Prediction From Cricket Experts
England vs Sri Lanka Head-to-Head in ODIs
| Statistic | Result |
|---|---|
| Completed ODI Meetings | 82 |
| England Wins | 40 |
| Sri Lanka Wins | 38 |
| Ties | 1 |
| No Results | 3 |
Last 5 Head-to-Head ODIs
| Date | Venue | Winner | Result/Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | Headingley, Leeds | Sri Lanka | Won by 16 runs |
| 22 Sep 2026 | Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street | England | Won by 89 runs |
| 27 Jan 2026 | R. Premadasa Stadium, Colombo | England | Won by 53 runs |
| 24 Jan 2026 | R. Premadasa Stadium, Colombo | England | Won by 5 wickets |
| 22 Jan 2026 | R. Premadasa Stadium, Colombo | Sri Lanka | Won by 19 runs |
England have won three of the last five ODI meetings, while Sri Lanka have won two.
Also Read: England vs Sri Lanka Head to Head in ODI: Overall Record, Last Matches and Key Stats
Venue & ODI Ground Stats
Kennington Oval has hosted 82 ODIs. The historical record shows a slight advantage for teams chasing, with 43 wins batting second compared with 35 wins batting first.
| Venue Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| ODIs Played | 82 |
| Average 1st Innings Score | 246 |
| Average 2nd Innings Score | 210 |
| Highest ODI Total | 398/5 |
| Lowest ODI Total | 74 all out |
| Highest Successful Chase | 322/3 |
| Wins Batting First | 35 |
| Wins Chasing | 43 |
The highest successful ODI chase at the venue is 322/3 by Sri Lanka against India, showing that a strong batting side can chase a substantial total at The Oval. However, the overall averages are considerably lower than the 321 posted by Sri Lanka at Headingley in the second ODI.
Pitch Report
The Oval generally provides a useful balance between bat and ball in ODI cricket. Its historical ODI average is 246 in the first innings and 210 in the second, although the venue has also hosted several much higher-scoring matches.
For a morning start, the new ball can be an important factor. England’s seamers should have an opportunity to attack the Sri Lankan top order before the surface settles, while Sri Lanka’s quicks will similarly look to test Banton and Duckett.
The middle overs could bring spin into the equation. Sri Lanka’s Dunith Wellalage has already shown how effective he can be against England’s middle order, while Rehan Ahmed gives England a wrist-spin option.
The Oval has historically favoured chasing slightly more often than batting first, so captains may be reluctant to overvalue the historical first-innings average. If the pitch remains consistent, a target around 280–300 should be competitive without being automatically decisive.
Weather Report
The latest Met Office forecast for The Oval shows Sunday beginning dry with bright spells before becoming cloudier and breezier. Rain is expected to spread east during the afternoon, with the venue forecast showing increasing precipitation chances later in the day.
| Weather Factor | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Temperature | Around 23°C maximum |
| Humidity | Moderate |
| Rain Chance | Low during early stages, increasing later |
| Wind | Increasing, with gusts potentially around 28 mph |
| Conditions | Initially dry/bright, becoming cloudier and breezier |
The match starts at 10:30 AM local time, so the early portion of the game is currently expected to be more favourable than the later afternoon. The possibility of rain later in the day makes the toss slightly more relevant, particularly if the first innings runs long or the chase extends into the period of worsening weather.
DLS/Interruption Risk: Moderate
Broadcast Details
The third ODI begins at 10:30 AM BST / 3:00 PM IST. Current India listings indicate Sony Sports Network for television and SonyLIV for streaming, while the match is also listed for live coverage on Sky Sports in the UK.
England vs Sri Lanka Toss Prediction & Strategy
If England Wins the Toss
England should consider bowling first.
The Oval has historically produced more wins for chasing teams than teams batting first, with 43 victories for sides bowling first compared with 35 for teams batting first.
The forecast is another reason to consider this approach. With the morning expected to start dry and rain chances increasing later, England could prefer to bowl before conditions become more unsettled and then chase with a defined target.
If Sri Lanka Wins the Toss
Sri Lanka could also bowl first.
The combination of the venue’s historical chasing record and the forecast for deteriorating conditions later makes chasing an attractive tactical option. Sri Lanka also successfully defended 321 in the second ODI, so they have demonstrated that they can win after batting first.
Toss Prediction
Predicted toss winner: England
If England win the toss, the preferred strategy is expected to be field first.
England vs Sri Lanka ODI Score Prediction
| Scenario | Projected Score |
|---|---|
| England batting first | 275–295 |
| Sri Lanka batting first | 270–295 |
Projected Competitive Score
A first-innings total around 280–295 should provide a competitive platform at The Oval.
The venue’s historical first-innings average is 246, but the current series has produced 265 and 321 in the opening two matches. Sri Lanka’s 321 at Headingley shows the batting quality available to both sides, while the Oval’s own record includes a successful chase of 322/3.
If Chasing
A target around 280 should remain within reach for either side if wickets are preserved through the middle overs. A total approaching or exceeding 310 would create substantially greater pressure, especially if rain creates a reduced-overs chase.
Winning Chances
| Team | Winning Probability |
|---|---|
| England | 56% |
| Sri Lanka | 44% |
Why the Win Percentage?
| Factor | England | Sri Lanka | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-order batting | Banton, Duckett, Root, Brook | Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Kamindu | England |
| Middle-order batting | Root, Brook, Jacks | Kusal, Asalanka, Rathnayake | Even |
| Finishing | Jacks, Overton | Rutherford-style role from current middle order | Even |
| Powerplay batting | Strong | Capable | England |
| Middle-over batting | Strong experience | Improving rapidly | England |
| Death batting | Buttler unavailable | Multiple contributors | Even |
| New-ball bowling | Archer, Atkinson, Tongue | Madushanka, Asitha, Malinga | England |
| Spin bowling | Rehan Ahmed | Wellalage, Colombage | Sri Lanka |
| Death bowling | Archer/Atkinson/Tongue | Madushanka/Malinga/Asitha | Even |
| All-round depth | Jacks, Overton, Rehan | Wellalage, Asalanka, Liyanage | Even |
| Recent form | 3 wins, 2 losses | 2 wins, 3 losses | England |
| Venue suitability | Home conditions | Away | England |
| Pitch suitability | Seam + spin options | Seam + spin options | Even |
| Fielding | Strong | Strong | Even |
| Squad availability | Buttler absent | Core XI available | Sri Lanka |
| Head-to-head | 40 wins | 38 wins | England |
| Home advantage | Yes | No | England |
England’s overall advantage is therefore relatively narrow rather than overwhelming. The three biggest positives are their recent ODI record, home conditions and greater experience in the top order.
Sri Lanka’s strongest counterarguments are Kusal Mendis’ current form, Wellalage’s impact against England’s middle order and the fact that they have already demonstrated that they can beat this England side in the current series.
Key ODI Player Matchups
| Matchup | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Ben Duckett vs Dilshan Madushanka | Duckett’s aggressive opening style will be tested by Madushanka’s ability to attack with the new ball. |
| Joe Root vs Dunith Wellalage | Root’s ability to rotate strike against left-arm spin could determine whether Sri Lanka can create another middle-over collapse. |
| Kusal Mendis vs Rehan Ahmed | Mendis’ form against England’s wrist-spin option could determine whether Sri Lanka build another 300-plus total. |
Wellalage is particularly important because he took three wickets in the second ODI, including Duckett and Harry Brook. Rehan Ahmed, meanwhile, removed Kusal Mendis and Charith Asalanka in the same innings, so both spinners have already demonstrated their capacity to influence this matchup.
Key Batting & Bowling Targets
Expected Top Batter
Joe Root — His position in England’s top order gives him the opportunity to bat through the middle overs, while his experience is particularly valuable in a series decider.
Expected Top Bowler
Jofra Archer — Archer provides England with genuine pace and a new-ball wicket-taking threat. He also took Kusal Mendis’ wicket in the second ODI before Mendis completed his century? Correction: Archer dismissed Janith Liyanage in that innings; Kusal Mendis was dismissed by Rehan Ahmed. Archer’s main value for the decider is therefore the early threat rather than a direct recent matchup advantage.
Potential X-Factor
Dunith Wellalage — His 3/49 in the second ODI changed the chase and makes him one of Sri Lanka’s most important tactical players.
England vs Sri Lanka Prediction 3rd ODI
England are marginally favoured to win the third ODI and take the series, with an estimated 56% winning chance compared with 44% for Sri Lanka.
The expected competitive range is around 280–295 batting first. England’s home advantage, recent ODI record and bowling resources provide the statistical edge, but the absence of Jos Buttler reduces their batting depth and makes the prediction considerably closer than it would have been with the full XI.
Sri Lanka’s strongest route is to repeat their Headingley template: Kusal Mendis or another top-order batter establishes a long innings, Wellalage creates middle-over pressure and the seamers execute accurately at the death.
What Could Prove Us Wrong?
- Kusal Mendis produces another major innings: His 121 in the second ODI demonstrated how quickly he can change the match. Another substantial contribution would give Sri Lanka a strong platform.
- Wellalage again dominates England’s middle order: His three wickets at Headingley were central to Sri Lanka’s victory. If he removes two or three top-order batters again, England’s chase could become difficult.
- England’s replacement for Buttler fails to provide finishing value: Buttler scored 69 in the second ODI, so his absence removes an important source of late-innings runs.
- Sri Lanka’s new-ball bowlers strike early: If Banton and Duckett fall inside the Powerplay, England could lose the platform required to control the chase.
- Rain changes the equation: The latest forecast indicates increasing rain and wind later on Sunday. A shortened match could substantially alter the value of batting depth, required run rate and the toss decision.
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