Who Will Win Wellington Blaze vs Otago Sparks 21st ODI 2026 Match Prediction

The Wellington Blaze vs Otago Sparks prediction for the 21st ODI of the Hallyburton Johnstone Shield 2025–26 points strongly toward the home side, but the Sparks still have plenty at stake. This crucial contest will be played on Saturday, 7th February 2026 at the iconic Basin Reserve. With the league stage nearing its conclusion, Wellington Blaze are pushing hard to secure a place in the final, while Otago Sparks are fighting to keep their slim qualification hopes alive.

Wellington Blaze have been one of the most consistent teams this season, losing just once in six matches. Their bowling unit has been outstanding, led by Jess Kerr and Xara Jetly, who have combined for a remarkable 28 wickets. Playing at home further strengthens their position, as the Blaze know the Basin Reserve conditions extremely well and have repeatedly used them to their advantage. Their recent four-wicket win over Canterbury Magicians showcased their ability to chase calmly under pressure.

Otago Sparks, on the other hand, come into this match after a massive confidence-boosting win against Central Hinds, where they dominated with both bat and ball. That victory has kept their campaign alive, but their record at the Basin Reserve is worrying, with three losses in their last four games here. To challenge Wellington, the Sparks will need a near-perfect performance, especially from their top order and strike bowlers.

The Wellington Blaze vs Otago Sparks prediction hinges on whether Otago can overcome venue history and handle Wellington’s disciplined bowling attack. If the Blaze batters put up a competitive total around the venue average, they will be extremely hard to beat. Overall, form, conditions, and squad balance give Wellington Blaze a clear edge going into this contest.

Match Details

Team Preview

Wellington Blaze Preview

Wellington Blaze have enjoyed an excellent campaign so far and sit firmly in contention for a place in the final. Georgia Plimmer has led the side with confidence, and the team’s balance between bat and ball has been their biggest strength. Their latest four-wicket victory over Canterbury Magicians highlighted their ability to control games even when things get tight.

At the top, Georgia Plimmer and Rebecca Burns form a dependable opening pair capable of giving the Blaze solid starts. Plimmer, in particular, has been consistent throughout the season and often sets the tone during the powerplay. In the middle order, Xara Jetly has been outstanding, not only contributing with the bat but also controlling the tempo of the innings. Jess Kerr and Hannah Francis add valuable depth, ensuring Wellington can recover even if early wickets fall.

The bowling unit has been the standout feature of their season. Jess Kerr is the leading wicket-taker with 14 wickets and regularly strikes with the new ball. Xara Jetly complements her perfectly, maintaining pressure through the middle overs. Support from Jess Simmons, Nicole Baird, Emma Parker, and Rachel Bryant gives the Blaze variety and flexibility, making their attack one of the toughest in the competition.

Otago Sparks Preview

Otago Sparks have shown flashes of brilliance but struggled with consistency. Their recent 122-run win over Central Hinds was a reminder of their potential, especially when their top order clicks. Captain Felicity Leydon-Davis led from the front with a superb century and will again be key if Otago are to challenge Wellington.

Leydon-Davis is expected to provide a strong start alongside Olivia Gain. At number three, Saffron Wilson has looked composed, while Bella James and Polly Inglis add stability in the middle order. The Sparks also possess finishing power through Caitlin Blakely and Anna Browning, who can accelerate late in the innings.

Bowling has improved in recent games. Emma Black has been the standout, picking up 12 wickets and regularly troubling batters with her accuracy. Anika Todd provides support with the new ball, while Chloe Deerness and Anna Browning play important roles in the middle overs. However, against Wellington’s strong batting lineup, Otago’s bowlers will need to be disciplined from start to finish.

Team Squads

Wellington Blaze: Georgia Plimmer, Rebecca Burns, Xara Jetly, Jess Kerr, Hannah Francis, Jessica McFadyen, Isla McKenzie, Jess Simmons, Nicole Baird, Emma Parker, Rachel Bryant.

Otago Sparks: Felicity Leydon-Davis, Olivia Gain, Saffron Wilson, Bella James, Polly Inglis, Caitlin Blakely, Anna Browning, Emma Black, Anika Todd, Chloe Deerness, Poppy Jay Watkins.

Probable Playing XI

Favourite Team Today – Wellington Blaze (Why)

Wellington Blaze are the clear favourites in this Wellington Blaze vs Otago Sparks prediction due to their consistency, balanced attack, and strong home conditions. They’ve lost only once in six matches this season, showcasing superior batting depth and a relentless bowling unit. With Jess Kerr leading the bowling charts and regular breakthroughs from Xara Jetly, Blaze have consistently controlled the middle overs and restricted oppositions below par totals. Their batting has also been efficient—openers Georgia Plimmer and Rebecca Burns provide stability, while middle-order hitters like Jessica McFadyen and Isla McKenzie ensure scoring momentum through the innings.

In contrast, Otago Sparks have shown flashes of excellence but lack consistency, especially under pressure and on the Basin Reserve surface. Playing away from home has historically been tough for the Sparks, and Wellington’s familiarity with pace and spin assistance at this venue enhances the Blaze’s advantage further. Given form, conditions, and squad balance, the Blaze are well-positioned to dominate this encounter.

Pitch Report

The Basin Reserve in Wellington traditionally offers a balanced batting-friendly surface with true bounce and carry through the length of the pitch. Seamers can extract movement early in the day, making the opening overs crucial for both sides. As the match progresses, the pitch tends to flatten out, helping batters settle in and score freely through the middle overs. Spinners and slow bowlers benefit later as the ball loses shine, offering slight turn and grip. Overall, a first-innings total of around 220–240 is competitive at this venue, and teams batting first often set challenging targets, especially under clear conditions.

Weather Report

Wellington generally sees mild Feb weather with comfortable temperatures and limited rain forecasts, which should ensure an uninterrupted ODI at Basin Reserve.

Broadcast Details

The Wellington Blaze vs Otago Sparks 21st ODI will be streamed live on FanCode with full commentary, ball-by-ball updates, and post-match highlights for fans globally.

Toss Prediction

At Basin Reserve, captains often choose to bat first to exploit the early conditions and set a strong total. The team winning the toss is likely to opt for runs on the board rather than chase under pressure in a high-stakes game.

Probable Batsman & Bowler

For Wellington Blaze, Georgia Plimmer is the batters to watch; her ability to build innings and anchor the top order provides stability. Xara Jetly adds depth with both bat and tight overs in the middle. Bowling wise, Jess Kerr is the spearhead—her control and knack for early strikes make her the key wicket-taking threat. Jess Simmons and Nicole Baird can both maintain pressure through consistency in the middle overs.

In the Otago Sparks lineup, Felicity Leydon-Davis is their most influential batter, especially given her recent century and ability to anchor the innings. Saffron Wilson adds aggressive intent at No. 3. Bowling responsibility lies with Emma Black, whose accuracy and breakthroughs will be crucial if Sparks are to challenge. Anika Todd and Chloe Deerness provide supporting pace options to contain Blaze’s batters.

Match Prediction

Considering home advantage, consistent performances, and bowling strength, Wellington Blaze are favourites to win this 21st ODI. Otago Sparks will need early breakthroughs and a near-perfect batting display to stay competitive, but Blaze’s balance across departments gives them a significant edge in this clash.

Also, once the toss takes place, we might modify the Today Match Prediction as per the playing XIs. Please check this blog after the toss for the updated Prediction.

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