Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars Prediction: Who Will Win HBH vs MLS Knockout T20 BBL Match?
The Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars prediction for the Knockout match of the Big Bash League (BBL) 2025–26 promises a high-stakes thriller, with the loser bowing out of the tournament. This Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars prediction becomes even more intriguing as both teams have shown strong form at different stages of the season. The clash will be played on Wednesday, 21 January 2026, at the picturesque Bellerive Oval.
Hobart Hurricanes, the defending champions, have been particularly strong at home, winning three of the five matches played at Bellerive Oval this season. Despite a narrow loss in their final league game, they remain one of the most balanced teams in the competition. Players like Nikhil Chaudhary, Ben McDermott, and Riley Meredith have consistently delivered match-winning performances—key factors shaping this Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars prediction.
Melbourne Stars, meanwhile, recovered well from a mid-season slump to qualify for the playoffs. Their recent win over Adelaide showcased their batting depth and bowling discipline. Sam Harper has been outstanding at the top, while Marcus Stoinis and Haris Rauf bring experience and firepower in crunch moments.
Historically, the Stars have had the upper hand against the Hurricanes, but current form and home advantage tilt this Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars prediction towards Hobart. With conditions favouring aggressive batting and quality pace bowling, fans can expect an intense knockout contest where execution under pressure will decide the outcome. Overall, balance, venue familiarity, and recent performances give Hobart a slight edge in this Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars prediction.
- Knockout clash with a Challenger spot on the line
- Hobart Hurricanes strong at home this season
- Melbourne Stars rely on Harper, Stoinis, and Rauf
- Hobart start as slight favourites
Match Details
| Match | HBH vs MLS, Knockout T20 |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, 21 January 2026 |
| Time | 1:45 PM IST |
| Venue | Bellerive Oval, Hobart |
| Tournament | Big Bash League 2025–26 |
Team Preview
Hobart Hurricanes Preview
Hobart Hurricanes have once again proven why they are one of the most consistent sides in the Big Bash League. Finishing third in the league stage, the Hurricanes arrive in the Knockout with confidence built on strong home performances and a well-rounded squad. Although they narrowly lost their final league match to Brisbane Heat, their overall body of work this season has been impressive.
The batting unit has been dependable throughout the tournament. Mitchell Owen and Nikhil Chaudhary have provided solid starts at the top. Chaudhary, in particular, has been Hobart’s standout batter, scoring 279 runs from nine matches at a strike rate of 152. His ability to counterattack early and maintain momentum through the middle overs makes him crucial in pressure games.
Ben McDermott has embraced his role as the backbone of the middle order, amassing 270 runs at a healthy strike rate. Alongside him, Tim Ward has chipped in with timely contributions, while Matthew Wade’s presence adds experience and flexibility. Beau Webster offers balance with his all-round skills, capable of contributing both with bat and ball.
Bowling has been Hobart’s major strength. Riley Meredith’s raw pace and aggression have troubled batters, while skipper Nathan Ellis provides control and leadership at the death. Chris Jordan’s experience in crunch moments has been invaluable, especially in tight finishes. The spin department, led by Rishad Hossain, has delivered breakthroughs in the middle overs, supported by Rehan Ahmed’s variations.
At Bellerive Oval, Hobart’s bowlers understand the lengths and angles required, giving them a tactical advantage. If the Hurricanes can combine their batting depth with disciplined bowling, they are well-equipped to progress further in the playoffs.
Melbourne Stars Preview
Melbourne Stars enter the Knockout with renewed confidence after defeating Adelaide Strikers to secure a playoff spot. Their journey this season has been one of resilience, overcoming inconsistency to peak at the right time.
Sam Harper has been the standout performer with the bat, scoring 371 runs in nine matches at a strike rate of 155. His consistency at the top has often laid the foundation for competitive totals. Thomas Fraser Rogers and Campbell Kellaway provide support, while the middle order boasts firepower in Glenn Maxwell and Marcus Stoinis. Although Maxwell hasn’t been at his destructive best, his ability to change games in a few overs cannot be underestimated.
Stoinis has found better rhythm in recent matches, contributing valuable runs and overs. Tom Curran and Hilton Cartwright add depth, ensuring the Stars have batting until deep.
The bowling attack is experienced and varied. Haris Rauf has been the spearhead, using pace and bounce effectively, while veteran Peter Siddle offers control and smart variations. Mitch Swepson has handled spin duties well, especially on slower surfaces, and Curran’s all-round contributions add flexibility.
For the Stars to overcome Hobart at Bellerive, they must strike early with the ball and ensure Harper or Stoinis anchors the innings. Execution under pressure will be key in this do-or-die encounter.
Also Check: BBL 2025-26: Points Table, Most Runs & Most Wickets
Team Squads
Hobart Hurricanes Squad: Mitchell Owen, Tim Ward, Beau Webster, Ben McDermott, Nikhil Chaudhary, Matthew Wade, Rehan Ahmed, Chris Jordan, Nathan Ellis, Rishad Hossain, Riley Meredith
Melbourne Stars Squad: Sam Harper, Thomas Fraser Rogers, Campbell Kellaway, Blake Macdonald, Marcus Stoinis, Tom Curran, Hilton Cartwright, Glenn Maxwell, Mitch Swepson, Haris Rauf, Peter Siddle, Joe Clarke, Liam Hatcher, Hamish McKenzie
Probable Playing XI
| Hobart Hurricanes | Melbourne Stars |
|---|---|
| Mitchell Owen | Sam Harper (wk) |
| Tim Ward | Thomas Fraser Rogers |
| Beau Webster | Campbell Kellaway |
| Ben McDermott | Glenn Maxwell |
| Nikhil Chaudhary | Marcus Stoinis (c) |
| Matthew Wade (wk) | Tom Curran |
| Rehan Ahmed | Hilton Cartwright |
| Chris Jordan | Mitch Swepson |
| Nathan Ellis (c) | Haris Rauf |
| Rishad Hossain | Peter Siddle |
| Riley Meredith | Liam Hatcher |
Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars Today’s Dream11/Fantasy Prediction
| Role | Players |
|---|---|
| WK | Matthew Wade |
| BAT | Ben McDermott, Nikhil Chaudhary, Sam Harper |
| AR | Marcus Stoinis, Beau Webster |
| BOWL | Riley Meredith, Nathan Ellis, Haris Rauf, Chris Jordan, Mitch Swepson |
This fantasy XI prioritizes form players and role clarity in a knockout context. Nikhil Chaudhary and Sam Harper are must-picks due to their consistency at the top. Ben McDermott offers middle-order stability, while Matthew Wade adds wicketkeeping points and experience. All-rounders Marcus Stoinis and Beau Webster provide dual value through batting contributions and overs.
In bowling, Riley Meredith’s pace makes him a prime wicket-taking option at Bellerive Oval. Nathan Ellis and Chris Jordan handle death overs, increasing their chances of picking wickets late. Haris Rauf’s express pace offers breakthroughs, while Mitch Swepson provides spin control in the middle overs. This balanced combination covers all phases of the game, maximizing fantasy returns.
Captain Options: Nikhil Chaudhary, Sam Harper
Vice-Captain Options: Marcus Stoinis, Ben McDermott
Players to Avoid: Blake Macdonald, Liam Hatcher
Also Check: Get The Best Fantasy Prediction From Cricket Experts
Favourite Team Today – Hobart Hurricanes (Why)
Hobart Hurricanes are favourites due to home advantage, squad balance, and recent consistency at Bellerive Oval. Their batting lineup has delivered reliable starts, while the bowling unit—led by Meredith and Ellis—has excelled in pressure situations. Melbourne Stars have quality players, but their inconsistency away from home and reliance on a few individuals tilt the balance towards Hobart. Familiarity with conditions and stronger execution in close games give the Hurricanes a decisive edge.
Hobart Hurricanes T20 History
| Matches | Won | Lost | No Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 80 | 81 | 3 |
Melbourne Stars T20 History
| Matches | Won | Lost | No Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 77 | 82 | 1 |
Head-to-Head Stats
| Matches | Hobart Won | Stars Won |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | 8 | 14 |
Melbourne Stars lead the head-to-head rivalry, but Hobart have been stronger at home recently.
Also Check: Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars Head to Head in T20 – Records, Team & Players Stats
Pitch Report
Bellerive Oval offers a good batting surface with even bounce. Pacers get assistance early, while batters can score freely once set. Spinners play a holding role. Par scores are around 185–190.
Weather Report
| Condition | Details |
|---|---|
| Temperature | 20–24°C |
| Rain | No rain expected |
| Wind | Mild breeze |
Clear conditions are forecast in Hobart. No rain interruptions are expected, ensuring a full match.
Broadcast Details
The Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars Knockout T20 match will be broadcast live on Star Sports Network for television viewers. Fans can also stream the match live on JioHotstar, which will provide ball-by-ball commentary, live scores, expert analysis, and post-match highlights across mobile and digital platforms.
Toss Prediction
At Bellerive Oval, captains often prefer to bowl first to take advantage of early movement for seamers and to assess conditions. With dew sometimes settling in during evening matches, chasing can become easier. Melbourne Stars are slightly favoured to win the toss, but the final decision will depend on pitch assessment.
Score Prediction
If Hobart Hurricanes bat first, a total of around 180–190 runs is expected, which can be challenging at this venue. If Melbourne Stars bat first, they are likely to post a score in the range of 165–175 runs. Totals above 185 will put the chasing side under significant pressure.
Probable Batsman & Bowler
For Hobart Hurricanes, Nikhil Chaudhary is the most probable top scorer, having been their most consistent batter this season with an excellent strike rate. Ben McDermott is another key batter who can anchor the innings and accelerate when required.
From Melbourne Stars, Sam Harper remains the biggest batting threat. His ability to score freely in the powerplay can shift momentum early. Marcus Stoinis could also be influential with both bat and ball if he finds rhythm.
On the bowling front, Riley Meredith is expected to be Hobart’s leading wicket-taker, using pace and bounce effectively at Bellerive Oval. For the Stars, Haris Rauf is the bowler to watch, capable of striking early and unsettling batters with his express pace.
Also Check For More: Big Bash League Prediction
Match Prediction
Considering home advantage, squad balance, and recent performances, Hobart Hurricanes hold a slight edge in this Knockout encounter. Their bowling attack is better suited to Bellerive Oval, and their batting has shown greater consistency under pressure. Melbourne Stars will need standout performances from Harper and Rauf to challenge them. Final Prediction: Hobart Hurricanes are expected to win and progress to the Challenger.
Also, once the toss takes place, we might modify the Today Match Prediction as per the playing XIs. Please check this blog after the toss for the updated Prediction.
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