New Zealand vs India Prediction, 4th ODI – India Tour of New Zealand 2026

New Zealand vs India prediction for the fourth ODI of the India Tour of New Zealand 2026 favours India, who have won the first two completed matches and currently lead the five-match series 2-0. The third ODI in Hamilton was abandoned because of rain, leaving New Zealand needing a victory in Mount Maunganui to keep their series hopes alive.

India won the opening ODI in Auckland by five wickets under the DLS method after restricting New Zealand to 185. They followed that performance with a four-run DLS victory in Wellington, defending a revised target in another rain-affected contest. The third match at Seddon Park was abandoned without a completed innings.

The series has also brought selection changes for both sides. India have moved to their separate squad for the fourth and fifth ODIs, with Shreyas Iyer taking over the captaincy from Shubman Gill. New Zealand have also selected a different group for the final two matches, bringing Finn Allen, Lockie Ferguson, Nick Kelly and Dean Foxcroft into the combination.

New Zealand have the advantage of familiar home conditions at Bay Oval, but their batting needs to improve after two unsuccessful completed chases. India, meanwhile, will look to maintain their unbeaten record in the completed ODI matches of the tour.

With two matches remaining, this encounter is particularly important for New Zealand. Another defeat would give India an unassailable 3-0 series lead, while a home victory would bring the contest back to life.

Match Details

New Zealand Last 5 ODI Matches

India Last 5 ODI Matches

Recent Form Comparison

India have the stronger recent ODI record, winning four of their last five completed matches. Their batting has demonstrated the ability to produce large totals, while their bowling has been effective in the two completed matches against New Zealand.

New Zealand’s recent results show inconsistency. They won two matches against West Indies in July but have lost both completed ODIs against India in the current series.

One important distinction is that New Zealand’s July results are several months old. Their present combination also includes changes for the final two ODIs, so the previous results should not be treated as a direct measure of the current squad.

New Zealand Preview

New Zealand enter the fourth ODI under considerable pressure after losing their first two completed matches. Their latest ODI defeat was particularly disappointing because they managed only 134 runs before India reached a revised target of 110 under the DLS method.

The hosts have made substantial changes to their squad for the final two matches. Finn Allen, Lockie Ferguson, Tim Seifert, Nick Kelly and Dean Foxcroft are among the players brought into the group, giving New Zealand a different combination from the opening three ODIs.

Finn Allen could provide the aggressive start New Zealand need. His attacking approach can be valuable during the powerplay, especially if he takes advantage of the fielding restrictions. Will Young offers a more conventional batting option, while Tim Seifert adds wicketkeeping and top-order flexibility.

Nick Kelly and Dean Foxcroft provide additional batting choices. Michael Bracewell and Mitchell Santner offer all-round depth, although the final combination will depend on how New Zealand balance their specialist batters and bowlers.

The absence of Mark Chapman and Rachin Ravindra remains significant. Both players could have strengthened the middle order, while Ravindra’s bowling would have provided another spin option.

Powerplay: Allen and Young need to provide a better start. New Zealand cannot afford another early collapse against India’s seamers.

Middle Overs: Santner, Bracewell, Kelly and Foxcroft will have important roles in rebuilding partnerships and rotating the strike. India possess quality spin options, so New Zealand must avoid allowing the scoring rate to stagnate.

Death Overs: New Zealand need greater batting depth to accelerate during the final 10 overs. Their finishing options will be particularly important if early wickets fall.

With the ball, Lockie Ferguson’s pace could be a major advantage. Jacob Duffy has already demonstrated his ability to take wickets against India, while Matt Henry and Kyle Jamieson offer seam-bowling options. However, Henry’s availability for this particular match should be checked against the final team announcement because he was not included in the ICC’s originally announced final-two-match squad.

New Zealand’s best chance is to take early wickets, particularly against Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, and use their home conditions to prevent India from building a substantial total.

India Preview

India arrive at Bay Oval with a strong opportunity to secure the series. They have won both completed ODIs, while the third match was abandoned because of rain. Their batting and bowling combinations have produced encouraging results despite the interruptions.

Shreyas Iyer will lead India in the fourth and fifth ODIs, replacing Shubman Gill, who captained the team during the opening three matches. This change is part of the announced split squad rather than an injury-related captaincy change.

Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli remain the most experienced batters in the lineup. Rohit’s attacking approach can be useful in the powerplay, while Kohli’s ability to construct an innings makes him important in the middle overs.

Shreyas Iyer will have additional responsibility as captain and middle-order batter. Ishan Kishan provides wicketkeeping flexibility and an attacking batting option, while Tilak Varma and Ruturaj Gaikwad strengthen the batting choices.

Axar Patel and Naman Dhir provide all-round options. Axar’s left-arm spin can control the middle overs, and his batting ability gives India flexibility when accelerating towards the end of the innings.

India’s bowling attack has several useful options. Arshdeep Singh provides left-arm pace, Mohammed Siraj offers experience with the new ball, and Kuldeep Yadav remains an important wicket-taking option against right-handed batters.

Powerplay: India should look to make use of the fielding restrictions without taking unnecessary risks. Rohit Sharma’s experience will be important against Ferguson and Duffy.

Middle Overs: Kohli, Iyer and Kishan can build partnerships and keep the scoreboard moving. Axar and Kuldeep will also be crucial when India bowl, especially against New Zealand’s middle-order batters.

Death Overs: India’s batting depth provides opportunities to accelerate. Their bowlers must maintain yorker accuracy and avoid allowing New Zealand’s lower order to score freely.

India’s main selection challenge is balancing their specialist bowlers and all-rounders. The final-two-match squad does not include Prasidh Krishna or Jasprit Bumrah, while Mohammed Siraj is available in the announced squad.

Overall, India have a more settled recent combination and stronger momentum. Their priority should be to maintain bowling discipline and avoid giving New Zealand an early opportunity to take control.

Team Squad & Team News

New Zealand ODI Squad – Fourth and Fifth Matches

New Zealand team news:

• Mitchell Santner continues as captain.
• Finn Allen, Lockie Ferguson and Tim Seifert join for the final two ODIs.
• Nick Kelly and Dean Foxcroft are additional batting options.
• Mark Chapman and Rachin Ravindra are unavailable because of injuries.
• Devon Conway is unavailable following his concussion.
• Matt Henry’s final availability should be confirmed from the match-day announcement.

India ODI Squad – Fourth and Fifth Matches

India team news:

• Shreyas Iyer takes over the captaincy for the final two ODIs.
• Ishan Kishan is the vice-captain.
• Shubman Gill is not included in the final-two-match squad.
• Prasidh Krishna has been ruled out of the tour’s ODI series.
• Nitish Kumar Reddy was selected only for the first ODI.
• Jasprit Bumrah is not part of the announced ODI squad.

Probable Playing XI

Selection considerations:

• Finn Allen and Tim Seifert provide New Zealand with an aggressive opening combination.
• Lockie Ferguson could strengthen the pace attack considerably.
• India could use Tilak Varma and Ishan Kishan to strengthen the middle order.
• Gurnoor Brar, Auqib Nabi and Yash Thakur are alternative bowling options for India.

Probable XIs are subject to official team announcements and the toss.

Head-to-Head – New Zealand vs India ODI Records

Last 5 Head-to-Head ODIs

India have won three of the latest five ODI meetings, compared with two victories for New Zealand. The latest two encounters have both gone India’s way, giving the visitors a clear advantage in the current series.

However, New Zealand’s January victories demonstrate that they can compete effectively against India’s batting lineup. The current squads also differ considerably from those earlier meetings, particularly because of the changes for the final two matches.

The historical record supports India, but the home advantage and New Zealand’s new squad combination could make the fourth ODI more competitive.

Pitch Report

The Bay Oval surface generally offers a reasonable balance between bat and ball. The ground has produced an average first-innings ODI score of approximately 235, suggesting that batters may need to build their innings rather than rely exclusively on aggressive stroke play.

The new ball could provide seam movement, particularly under favourable atmospheric conditions. New Zealand’s Lockie Ferguson and Jacob Duffy will look to exploit this during the powerplay, while India’s Arshdeep Singh and Mohammed Siraj have similar opportunities.

Once the initial movement settles, the surface should allow stroke-making. Batters who rotate the strike and avoid unnecessary risks during the middle overs could build substantial partnerships.

Spin could become important as the innings progresses. Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell provide New Zealand with options, while Kuldeep Yadav and Axar Patel offer India different types of spin.

The final 10 overs could favour the batting side if wickets remain in hand. However, the team batting first must assess the surface carefully before choosing an aggressive scoring approach.

Overall, the pitch appears capable of supporting a competitive ODI total, but bowling discipline and partnership building should remain important.

Weather Report

The weather forecast for Mount Maunganui on 13 November is generally encouraging, although some match-specific forecast listings indicate possible light rain.

The weather-nz forecast indicates no significant rainfall, with temperatures between 12°C and 22°C and winds reaching approximately 16 km/h. Another match listing indicates possible light rain, so the latest hourly forecast should be checked before the match.

Weather Impact

If the forecast remains predominantly sunny, the match should have a relatively low interruption risk. The afternoon start in New Zealand also means that teams should consider the changing light conditions towards the later stages.

Cloud cover, if present, could assist seam bowlers. However, there is currently insufficient evidence to expect a major weather-related interruption.

DLS/Interruption Risk: Low

Broadcast Details

Indian viewers can watch the New Zealand vs India fourth ODI on Sony Sports Network. Live streaming is available through SonyLIV.

Toss Prediction & Strategy

If New Zealand Wins the Toss

New Zealand should consider bowling first. Their pace attack, particularly Ferguson and Duffy, could exploit the new-ball conditions against India’s experienced top order.

Restricting India to a manageable total would also give New Zealand an opportunity to chase with a clear target.

If India Wins the Toss

India should also consider bowling first. Their seam attack has performed well during the series, and chasing would allow the batting unit to assess the conditions before setting its scoring targets.

However, India have sufficient batting depth to post a competitive total if they decide to bat first.

Toss Prediction

Predicted toss winner: New Zealand

New Zealand receive a slight prediction preference because of their home advantage, although the toss itself remains an unpredictable event.

Preferred decision: Bowl first.

The venue’s historical chasing record and the possibility of early seam movement make bowling first a reasonable choice.

ODI Score Prediction

Winning Chances

Why the Win Percentage?

Main Reasons Behind the Prediction

1. India’s stronger recent ODI form

India have won four of their last five completed ODIs, while New Zealand have won only two. The visitors also lead the ongoing series 2-0.

2. India’s batting experience

Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and Shreyas Iyer provide substantial ODI experience. Their ability to build partnerships gives India a strong foundation.

3. New Zealand’s squad changes

The inclusion of Finn Allen and Lockie Ferguson could strengthen the hosts, but the new combination may require time to settle.

4. India’s bowling depth

Arshdeep Singh, Mohammed Siraj, Kuldeep Yadav and Axar Patel provide different bowling options. This variety makes it difficult for opposition batters to settle into one scoring pattern.

5. Home advantage for New Zealand

New Zealand understand the conditions at Bay Oval and should be more comfortable with the local surface and weather. This is the main reason the probability gap remains relatively narrow.

Key ODI Player Matchups

These contests could determine whether New Zealand take early control or India establish another strong batting platform.

Key Batting & Bowling Targets

Expected Top Batter

Virat Kohli (India)

Kohli has already scored 74 in the opening ODI. His ability to handle pressure and accelerate when required makes him an important batting option.

Expected Top Bowler

Arshdeep Singh (India)

Arshdeep claimed four wickets in the first ODI and provides India with an important left-arm seam option.

Potential X-Factor

Finn Allen (New Zealand)

Allen’s attacking batting could change the momentum of the match during the powerplay. His performance will be particularly important as New Zealand look to improve their recent batting returns

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