Japan vs Nepal Prediction, 5th Match Asian Games 2026

Japan vs Nepal prediction for the 5th match of the Asian Games 2026 carries major importance in Group A because both teams have already played one match, but their results have taken them in different directions. The game is scheduled for September 26 at 5:30 AM IST at Korogi Sports Park in Nisshin, with the top two teams from the three-team group progressing to the quarter-finals.

Japan began their campaign with a 48-run defeat against Afghanistan. Afghanistan scored 129/6 before bowling Japan out for 81 in 19.3 overs. Japan’s best batting contributions came from Reo Sakurano-Thomas, who made 23, and Benjamin Ito-Davis, who scored 17 from only eight balls.

Nepal, meanwhile, have just produced the stronger result in the group. They restricted Afghanistan to 102/7 and then reached 103/5 in 17.2 overs to win by five wickets. Sundeep Jora scored 34 from 35 balls and Rohit Paudel remained unbeaten on 33 from 32, while Kushal Bhurtel’s 4/21 and Lalit Rajbanshi’s 3/13 controlled Afghanistan’s innings.

That victory gives Nepal two important advantages: confidence and a positive start to the group. Japan, on the other hand, must improve considerably with the bat after being dismissed for 81.

The teams also met in the 2025 T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier, where Nepal chased Japan’s 131/8 to reach 132/5 in 18 overs. Nepal therefore have a 1-0 verified T20I head-to-head advantage.

The biggest question is whether Japan can exploit the early-morning conditions and make better use of its bowling resources. Nepal’s greater international experience and current momentum give them the stronger statistical position, but the weather forecast introduces an additional variable.

Match Details

The official Japan Cricket Association lists Japan vs Nepal for September 26 at Korogi Park. The match is scheduled for 9:00 AM local time, equivalent to 5:30 AM IST.

Japan Last 5 Matches

Japan’s recent record is mixed, with one win, three defeats and one no-result in the five most recent officially recorded T20Is. The September sequence is particularly demanding: Japan played Hong Kong twice, India in a rain-shortened five-over game, and Afghanistan before facing Nepal.

The Afghanistan match highlighted the main problem. Japan were bowled out for 81 after losing wickets at regular intervals. At the same time, their bowling attack showed that it can create pressure: Ibrahim Takahashi took 2/19 and Benjamin Ito-Davis took 1/23 against Afghanistan.

Nepal Last 5 Matches

Nepal have won three of their last five T20Is, with the latest victory coming against Afghanistan. Their April series against UAE also produced one win and one DLS defeat, while they beat Scotland during the 2026 T20 World Cup.

Japan Preview

Japan’s first Asian Games match against Afghanistan exposed a significant batting issue but also showed that the team has enough bowling quality to compete for periods of a game.

The hosts chose to bowl first and restricted Afghanistan to 129/6. Ibrahim Takahashi was especially effective, taking 2/19 from four overs, while Reo Sakurano-Thomas returned 1/6 from two. Benjamin Ito-Davis also contributed with 1/23.

The problem came during the chase. Japan lost Lachlan Yamamoto-Lake, Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming and Benjamin Ito-Davis before reaching 53, and the innings never developed a sustained partnership. Reo Sakurano-Thomas eventually top-scored with 23 from 24 balls, while Ito-Davis had earlier struck 17 from eight.

Captain Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming is an important part of the batting structure. He is Japan’s leading T20I run-scorer historically and has extensive experience at international level. The squad also contains experienced players such as Ibrahim Takahashi, Declan Suzuki-McComb and Makoto Taniyama.

The encouraging factor is that Japan are playing at their home venue. Their squad contains ten players who were part of the delayed 2022 Asian Games group, giving the team considerable familiarity with the broader international environment.

Against Nepal, Japan need a substantially better powerplay. Losing three wickets inside the opening eight overs would again place too much pressure on the middle order.

Their bowling strategy should be based around using the new ball effectively and bringing Takahashi’s off-spin and Taniyama’s leg-spin into the middle overs. Nepal’s batting contains several experienced players, so Japan cannot rely only on defensive bowling.

If the hosts bat first, a score around 130–145 would give their bowlers something to defend. If they chase, preserving wickets through the first half of the innings will be critical.

Nepal Preview

Nepal enter the match after one of their most important results of the Asian Games group stage. They defeated Afghanistan by five wickets after restricting them to 102/7, immediately placing themselves in a strong position in Group A.

The bowling performance was the foundation of the victory. Lalit Rajbanshi took 3/13 from four overs, while Kushal Bhurtel produced an excellent spell of 4/21. Sandeep Lamichhane also completed four overs for only 18 runs.

That variety is important against Japan. Nepal can attack with seam through Karan KC, use Bhurtel’s off-spin and then turn to Lamichhane and Rajbanshi. The combination gives captain Dipendra Singh Airee several options during the middle overs.

The chase was controlled rather than aggressive. Sundeep Jora scored 34 from 35 balls, Rohit Paudel made an unbeaten 33 from 32 and Dipendra added 15 from 18. The side lost five wickets but still completed the chase in 17.2 overs.

Rohit Paudel’s composure will again be important because Japan’s bowling attack can create pressure when batters make mistakes. Dipendra’s all-round role also gives Nepal additional tactical flexibility.

The main concern is workload. Nepal have played Afghanistan on September 25 and face Japan early the following morning. The schedule leaves less recovery time than Japan have had. The team will need to manage its bowling resources carefully, particularly if the match is affected by wet conditions.

Nepal’s ideal strategy is to attack Japan’s top order while maintaining enough spin resources for the middle overs. If they get early wickets, their bowling depth could make it difficult for Japan to recover.

Team Squad & Team News

Japan Squad

Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming (C), Charlie Hara-Hinze, Benjamin Ito-Davis, Alester Kadowaki-Fleming, Kohei Kubota, Jake Kusuda-Nairn, Wataru Miyauchi, Reo Sakurano-Thomas, Alex Shirai-Patmore, Shoma Sugaya-Slater, Declan Suzuki-McComb, Tsuyoshi Takada, Ibrahim Takahashi, Makoto Taniyama and Lachlan Yamamoto-Lake.

Nepal Squad

Dipendra Singh Airee (C), Rohit Kumar Paudel, Sompal Kami, Karan KC, Sandeep Lamichhane, Aarif Sheikh, Aasif Sheikh, Kushal Bhurtel, Lalit Rajbanshi, Gulshan Jha, Nandan Yadav, Lokesh Bam, Sundeep Jora, Sher Malla and Kushal Malla.

No specific injury or withdrawal affecting the Japan-Nepal fixture has been reliably confirmed.

Probable Playing XI

Probable XIs are subject to official team announcements and the toss.

Nepal vs Japan Dream11 / Fantasy Prediction

Nepal offer the deeper fantasy pool because several players have immediate match evidence from their Afghanistan victory. Kushal Bhurtel took 4/21 and is also a top-order batter, while Rohit Paudel contributed an unbeaten 33. Sundeep Jora added 34 during the chase.

For Japan, Ibrahim Takahashi is an attractive multi-skill option after taking 2/19 against Afghanistan. Benjamin Ito-Davis also contributed with both bat and ball in that match.

Captain Options

1. Dipendra Singh Airee — provides both batting and bowling involvement and captains Nepal.
2. Kushal Bhurtel — took four wickets against Afghanistan and can also contribute at the top of the order.

Vice-Captain Options

1. Rohit Paudel — unbeaten 33 in Nepal’s latest chase.
2. Ibrahim Takahashi — Japan’s leading recent bowling contributor against Afghanistan.

Players to Avoid

1. Lower-order Japan batters with limited recent involvement — their fantasy opportunity may depend on a collapse.
2. Nepal players with limited roles in the previous match — rotation is possible given the short turnaround.

Fantasy suggestions are for informational purposes only and are not guaranteed to produce points or returns.

Japan vs Nepal Head-to-Head

Last Head-to-Head Match

Japan scored 131/8 in that 2025 T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier match, but Nepal reached 132/5 in 18 overs. Aasif Sheikh scored 38 from 21 balls and Gulshan Jha finished unbeaten on 28 from 20.

Pitch Report & Venue Stats

The first men’s match at this year’s tournament produced 129/6 and 81 all out, while the Nepal-Afghanistan match on September 25 produced 102/7 and 103/5. The recent men’s evidence therefore points to a lower-scoring surface than a conventional high-scoring T20 venue.

The pitch used against Afghanistan was described as offering pace and bounce, with swing favourable to seam bowling and average batting conditions.

For Japan, the challenge is to avoid another powerplay collapse. Nepal can use seamers early before introducing Lamichhane and Rajbanshi. If the surface remains slow or damp, stroke-making could become harder and the value of wickets in hand will increase.

The historical venue average of 137 should not be confused with the projected score for this match.

Weather Report

The latest Nisshin forecast for September 26 indicates a cool, wet morning, with light rain showers expected around the match period and humidity around 90%. The forecast indicates approximately 5 mm of precipitation and winds around 12 km/h.

This is a significant factor because the match starts at 9:00 AM local time. A wet outfield could delay the start or reduce the number of overs, while a shortened game would increase volatility and make the toss more important.

If rain intervenes after sufficient play, DLS could become relevant. The weather therefore reduces confidence in any pre-match score projection.

Broadcast Details

The Japan vs Nepal Asian Games men’s cricket match is scheduled for 5:30 AM IST on September 26. Current match listings identify Sony Sports Network as the television broadcaster and SonyLIV as the streaming platform in India.

TV: Sony Sports Network
Live Streaming: SonyLIV
Start Time: 5:30 AM IST

Toss Prediction & Strategy

If Japan wins the toss

Japan should consider bowling first, particularly if the morning remains humid and wet. Their strongest route to victory is to exploit any early movement and prevent Nepal’s experienced top order from establishing a partnership.

Restricting Nepal below 125 would make the chase more manageable on a potentially difficult surface.

If Nepal wins the toss

Nepal could also choose to bowl first. Their bowling attack has just restricted Afghanistan to 102/7, and the same group has experience of the surface only hours before this fixture.

The biggest benefit would be knowing the exact target in a potentially rain-affected match.

Toss Prediction

Predicted toss winner: Nepal

The toss itself is inherently random. The strategic preference is more important: given the forecast and the recent low-scoring matches, bowling first could provide useful information about how the surface is behaving.

Score Prediction

Winning Chances

Why the Win Percentage?

Nepal’s advantage is based primarily on the quality of the latest evidence rather than historical reputation.

Their bowlers have just dismissed Afghanistan for 102, with Bhurtel and Rajbanshi combining for seven wickets. Nepal then chased the target with 16 balls remaining.

Japan’s biggest concern is batting. They scored only 81 against Afghanistan and lost wickets too frequently to establish a partnership. Their bowling can keep the match competitive, but they need a much higher batting contribution.

The forecast prevents a wider probability gap. A wet morning, possible showers and a potentially shortened match could make the contest considerably more volatile than the basic team-strength comparison suggests.

Key Player Matchups

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