England vs Pakistan Prediction, 3rd Test: Edgbaston Test Match Prediction 2026
England vs Pakistan prediction for the third Test of the Pakistan Tour of England 2026 strongly favours the hosts, but the three-way Test model leaves room for a Pakistan response or a weather-assisted draw. The match begins on September 9 at Edgbaston, Birmingham, with England already holding an unassailable 2-0 lead after comprehensive victories at Headingley and Lord’s. The third Test is therefore a series dead rubber in terms of the winner, but it remains important for England’s bid to complete a 3-0 sweep and for Pakistan’s attempt to regain competitive momentum.
England won the opening Test by an innings and 103 runs before following it with a 194-run victory at Lord’s. The common thread has been their pace attack: Ollie Robinson and Josh Tongue have repeatedly exposed Pakistan’s top order, while Jofra Archer and Gus Atkinson have supplied additional pace and wicket-taking pressure. Robinson has taken 16 wickets in the first two Tests at an average of 7.19, while Tongue has 13 wickets at 12.46.
Pakistan’s problem is not simply that they have lost two Tests. Their batting has failed to reach 200 in any of the four innings of the series so far, and their preparation for Edgbaston has been disrupted by an extraordinary mid-series squad overhaul. Seven players, including Mohammad Rizwan, Imam-ul-Haq and Salman Ali Agha, have been released, while five uncapped players and two players with previous Test experience have joined the squad.
The changes make Pakistan harder to assess but also reduce continuity. Babar Azam returns as captain for the final Test after missing the first match through injury, although he recently developed a fever and remains a selection watch ahead of the game. England, meanwhile, have retained a largely settled group after leaving Brydon Carse and Matthew Fisher out of the third-Test squad.
The WTC context also matters. England moved to sixth in the ICC World Test Championship standings after the Lord’s victory, while Pakistan are bottom with a points percentage of 16.67%. A Pakistan win would not change the series result but would provide valuable WTC points and prevent a clean sweep.
Table of Contents
England vs Pakistan 3rd Test Match Details
| Match | Date | Time | Venue | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England vs Pakistan, 3rd Test | September 9–13, 2026 | 3:30 PM IST | Edgbaston, Birmingham | Pakistan Tour of England 2026 |
The scheduled start is 11:00 AM local time in Birmingham, which corresponds to 3:30 PM IST. The match is the third and final Test of the series.
England Last 5 Test Matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | England Score | Opponent Score | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27–31, 2026 | Pakistan | Lord’s | Won | 290 & 208 | 110 & 194 | Won by 194 runs |
| Aug 19–23, 2026 | Pakistan | Headingley | Won | 409 | 171 & 135 | Won by an innings & 103 runs |
| Jun 25–29, 2026 | New Zealand | Trent Bridge | Lost | 354 & 212 | 438 & 288/9d | Lost by 160 runs |
| Jun 17–21, 2026 | New Zealand | The Oval | Lost | 291 & 209 | 391 & 362 | Lost by 253 runs |
| Jun 4–8, 2026 | New Zealand | Lord’s | Won | 140 & 226 | 113 & 138 | Won by 115 runs |
England enter the Test with three wins and two losses in their last five Tests. Their two defeats against New Zealand exposed some batting and control issues, but the subsequent 2-0 Pakistan series lead has been built primarily through much stronger pace bowling.
Pakistan Last 5 Test Matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Pakistan Score | Opponent Score | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27–31, 2026 | England | Lord’s | Lost | 110 & 194 | 290 & 208 | Lost by 194 runs |
| Aug 19–23, 2026 | England | Headingley | Lost | 171 & 135 | 409 | Lost by an innings & 103 runs |
| Aug 2–7, 2026 | West Indies | Queen’s Park Oval | Won | 387 & 77/2 | 344 & 117 | Won by 8 wickets |
| Jul 25–29, 2026 | West Indies | Brian Lara Cricket Academy | Lost | 282 & 120 | 311 & 181 | Lost by 90 runs |
| May 16–20, 2026 | Bangladesh | Sylhet | Lost | 232 & 358 | 278 & 390 | Lost by 78 runs |
Pakistan have won only once in their last five Tests. The 8-wicket victory in Trinidad showed that the side can still produce a controlled away performance, but the two England defeats have been significantly more damaging because the batting has repeatedly collapsed against seam.
Series & WTC Context
| Series Context | Status |
|---|---|
| Series Score | England lead 2-0 |
| Previous Test | England won by 194 runs |
| Remaining Tests | One — 3rd Test |
| What England Needs | Win to complete a 3-0 whitewash |
| What Pakistan Needs | Win to avoid a series whitewash and gain WTC points |
This is a bilateral series but also part of the ICC World Test Championship 2025–27. England moved to sixth in the WTC standings after Lord’s, while Pakistan remain at the bottom with a 16.67% points percentage after eight matches.
England therefore have a strong incentive to maintain their momentum despite already securing the series. Pakistan, by contrast, need a result to stop the tour from ending with three defeats and to improve their WTC position.
Previous Test Analysis: What Happened at Lord’s?
The second Test was another example of England winning through sustained pace pressure rather than one isolated batting performance. England made 290 in the first innings, but Pakistan were dismissed for only 110, leaving the hosts with a 180-run advantage before the match had reached its halfway point.
Ollie Robinson was the defining bowler, taking 5/57 in Pakistan’s first innings and continuing his influence in the second innings. Jofra Archer also produced decisive spells, while Josh Tongue repeatedly attacked the stumps and created pressure around the Pakistan middle order.
Pakistan’s second innings was considerably better, largely because Saud Shakeel produced a determined 97 from 122 balls and Shan Masood added 26. Their 97-run partnership helped Pakistan recover from 14/3, but the resistance arrived too late and the target of 389 remained well beyond reach.
For England, the tactical lesson is straightforward: maintain the same attacking lengths and force Pakistan’s batters to play under pressure. For Pakistan, the requirement is different — they need to survive the first 20–25 overs without losing several wickets and then build partnerships long enough to make England’s bowlers work.
The selection changes may also alter Pakistan’s batting order and approach. With several senior players released, the new combination has less established Test experience but potentially offers a fresh psychological start.
England Team Preview
Batting
England’s top order remains settled, with Ben Duckett and Emilio Gay expected to open, followed by Jordan Cox, Joe Root and Harry Brook. The combination gives England both left-right variation and considerable experience through the middle, while Jamie Smith adds aggressive lower-middle-order scoring from the wicketkeeper position.
Cox has already shown that he can occupy the No.3 role, scoring 55 at Lord’s, while Smith’s 61 in the same Test provided England with important lower-order momentum. England do not necessarily need their top order to dominate for 150 overs; their deeper batting allows them to keep pressure on Pakistan even after wickets fall.
Joe Root has not been at his most prolific during this short Test summer, but his value goes beyond raw run totals. His ability to absorb pressure, manipulate fields and bat deep becomes especially important if Pakistan’s new bowling combination gets early movement.
Harry Brook remains England’s major counter-attacking option. If Pakistan allow Brook to settle after the first hour, he can turn a controlled Test innings into a rapid change in match position.
Bowling
England’s biggest advantage is their pace depth. Robinson has 16 wickets in two Tests, Tongue has 13, Archer has eight, and Atkinson adds another high-quality pace option.
Robinson’s current form is particularly important because his control allows England to attack without sacrificing economy. Tongue offers a different challenge through his bounce and angle, while Archer can create sudden breakthroughs through pace.
The absence of Brydon Carse does not necessarily weaken the attack significantly because England still have Archer, Robinson, Tongue and Atkinson available, with Sonny Baker and Sam Cook providing additional options. Carse remains outside the squad while an investigation continues, while Matthew Fisher has also been omitted.
Spin is likely to be secondary unless the match extends into the fourth and fifth days. Shoaib Bashir is available, but England’s recent results suggest the four-man pace strategy remains their preferred route to 20 wickets.
All-round Balance
Dan Lawrence provides batting depth but is not a direct like-for-like replacement for the bowling contribution Ben Stokes previously supplied. This means England’s specialist quicks have greater responsibility for taking the majority of the wickets.
That balance has worked against Pakistan because England’s four main seamers have consistently been able to attack in rotation.
Weakness
England’s main vulnerability is batting volatility. Their first innings at Lord’s lasted only 66.4 overs, and Pakistan’s seamers, particularly Mohammad Abbas, showed that disciplined bowling can still expose the England top order.
Winning Requirement
England need to avoid allowing Abbas and the new Pakistan attack to dictate the first innings. If Duckett, Gay, Cox and Root survive the initial movement, England can build a substantial total and then unleash their pace attack against Pakistan’s less settled batting order.
Pakistan Team Preview
Batting
Pakistan’s batting is the biggest variable in this match. The first two Tests produced innings totals of 171, 135, 110 and 194, meaning the team has repeatedly failed to build a substantial first-innings platform.
Babar Azam’s return to captaincy provides experience, but his scores of 8 and 6 at Lord’s demonstrate the immediate challenge he faces. Shan Masood and Abdullah Shafique have also struggled to establish long partnerships, while the absence of Imam-ul-Haq removes another experienced opening option.
Saud Shakeel is Pakistan’s clearest recent batting positive. His 97 at Lord’s showed the value of patience and shot selection against England’s pace attack. He will need another long innings if Pakistan are to reach a competitive first-innings total.
Saim Ayub and Abdullah Fazal bring previous Test experience into a significantly changed squad, but several of the replacement players have little or no Test experience. That makes Pakistan’s first 30 overs especially important.
Bowling
Mohammad Abbas remains Pakistan’s strongest proven threat. He has taken 10 wickets in the series, including five in England’s first innings at Lord’s. His ability to move the ball conventionally and maintain a disciplined line gives Pakistan a genuine chance of creating early pressure.
Mohammad Ali has also contributed wickets, while Sajid Khan provides the principal spin option in the projected XI. Ubaid Shah could add pace and attacking intent, although his Test experience is limited.
The problem is depth and continuity. Khurram Shahzad and Ali Usman, who featured in the first two Tests, have been released, leaving Pakistan to introduce several new options simultaneously.
All-rounders
Arafat Minhas is one of the more intriguing additions because he offers left-arm spin and batting depth. The new squad also includes Mohammad Imran and Razaullah, two pace-bowling all-rounders, although selecting inexperienced all-rounders in a Test at Edgbaston carries a significant risk.
Recent Form
Pakistan’s overall five-Test record is 1-4, but the results need context. Their win over West Indies in Trinidad demonstrated that the team can chase a modest target successfully, while the defeats to England have been driven by severe batting collapses rather than consistently poor bowling.
Weakness
The obvious weakness is the top order against high-quality seam. England have repeatedly taken early wickets, and Pakistan have then struggled to rebuild before the scoreboard pressure becomes overwhelming.
Winning Requirement
Pakistan’s first objective should be to produce a first innings of at least competitive Test-match length rather than chasing England’s scoring tempo. If they can reach 300 or more and keep England’s first innings below that mark, their new bowling combination could make the contest much closer.
Squad & Team News
England
England have named a 15-member squad for the third Test:
Joe Root (c), Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Sonny Baker, Shoaib Bashir, Harry Brook, Sam Cook, Jordan Cox, Ben Duckett, Emilio Gay, Dan Lawrence, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Jamie Smith and Josh Tongue.
Brydon Carse remains unavailable for selection and Matthew Fisher has been omitted from the third-Test squad. Sonny Baker has retained his place in the group.
England’s squad has otherwise remained stable, and their current seam combination is expected to be retained.
Pakistan
Pakistan’s updated Birmingham squad is:
Babar Azam (c), Abdullah Fazal, Abdullah Shafique, Arafat Minhas, Azan Awais, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Ali, Muhammad Imran, Mohammad Imran Jnr, Muhammad Ghazi Ghori, Razaullah, Saad Baig, Saim Ayub, Sajid Khan, Saud Shakeel, Shan Masood and Ubaid Shah.
Mohammad Rizwan, Imam-ul-Haq, Salman Ali Agha, Ali Usman, Aamir Jamal, Muhammad Awais Zafar and Khurram Shahzad have been released from the squad. Sarfaraz Ahmed and Umar Gul have also departed the coaching setup, with Mike Hesson and Ashley Noffke taking charge for the final Test.
Babar Azam recently developed a fever, although Pakistan’s team management has indicated that he is expected to recover in time for the Edgbaston Test. His final availability should therefore be monitored before the toss.
Probable Playing XI
| England Probable XI | Pakistan Probable XI |
|---|---|
| Ben Duckett | Saim Ayub |
| Emilio Gay | Abdullah Shafique |
| Jordan Cox | Shan Masood |
| Joe Root (c) | Babar Azam (c) |
| Harry Brook | Saud Shakeel |
| Dan Lawrence | Saad Baig (wk) |
| Jamie Smith (wk) | Arafat Minhas |
| Gus Atkinson | Sajid Khan |
| Ollie Robinson | Mohammad Abbas |
| Jofra Archer | Mohammad Ali |
| Josh Tongue | Ubaid Shah |
England’s projected XI follows the combination used in the first two Tests, while Pakistan’s XI is more uncertain because of the seven-player overhaul. The Pakistan projection prioritises a combination of experienced batters, Abbas’s proven new-ball threat, Sajid’s spin and several of the newly added players. England’s current 15-man squad is verified, but the final XI remains subject to selection.
Probable XIs are subject to official team announcements and the toss.
Selection Watch
Pakistan’s biggest selection question is wicketkeeper. Saad Baig and Muhammad Ghazi Ghori are both in the new squad, while the previous first-choice wicketkeeper Mohammad Rizwan has been released.
Babar’s fitness is another variable. If he is cleared to play, he is expected to occupy the No.4 role; if not, Pakistan would need another major reshuffle.
England vs Pakistan Test Head-to-Head
| Statistic | Result |
|---|---|
| Total Tests | 92 |
| England Wins | 30 |
| Pakistan Wins | 23 |
| Draws | 39 |
| Ties | 0 |
England have historically held the overall advantage, winning 30 of the 92 Tests against Pakistan compared with 23 Pakistan victories. The rivalry has also produced 39 draws, showing that a historical Test between these teams has often been capable of extending deep into the fifth day.
Last 5 Head-to-Head Tests
| Date | Venue | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24–26, 2024 | Rawalpindi | Pakistan won | By 9 wickets |
| Oct 15–18, 2024 | Multan | Pakistan won | By 152 runs |
| Oct 7–11, 2024 | Multan | England won | By an innings & 47 runs |
| Dec 17–21, 2022 | Karachi | England won | By 8 wickets |
| Dec 9–13, 2022 | Multan | England won | By 26 runs |
The recent five meetings are split 3-2 in England’s favour. However, the last two were won by Pakistan in their 2024 home series, while the current England side is considerably different after Ben Stokes’ retirement and Joe Root’s return as captain.
Therefore, H2H supports England historically but should not outweigh the much more relevant evidence from the first two Tests of the current series.
Edgbaston Test Venue Statistics
| Venue Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Tests Played | 61 |
| Average 1st Innings Score | 307 |
| Average 2nd Innings Score | 317 |
| Average 3rd Innings Score | 246 |
| Average 4th Innings Score | 159 |
| Highest Total | 710/7 |
| Lowest Total | 30 |
| Highest Successful Chase | 378/3 |
| Wins Batting First | 20 |
| Wins Bowling First | 23 |
| Draws | 18 |
Edgbaston has hosted 61 Tests. Teams batting second have historically won slightly more often than teams batting first, while the sharp decline from an average 317 in the second innings to 159 in the fourth indicates how much more difficult batting can become as a Test progresses.
The 18 historical draws are significant for the three-way model. However, the current England-Pakistan series has produced two decisive results, so the venue’s draw history should be treated as background rather than a direct prediction.
Edgbaston Pitch Report
Day 1
The available ground and match information points toward a surface offering reasonable pace and carry, with the early morning period potentially favouring seamers. Edgbaston historically provides enough assistance for disciplined fast bowlers, making the first hour particularly important for openers.
England’s pace attack is therefore better equipped to exploit the opening conditions. Pakistan’s best opportunity will be for Abbas and the new-ball bowlers to attack England’s top order before the surface settles.
Days 2–3
If the pitch remains stable, batting should become more manageable once the new ball loses its hardness. This is the phase in which partnerships become essential, because a team that establishes a substantial first-innings lead can put the opposition under pressure for the remainder of the match.
Spin may become more relevant as the surface wears, although the statistical profile of recent English Tests suggests seam remains the primary wicket-taking method.
Days 4–5
The historical fall in fourth-innings scoring at Edgbaston is important. An average fourth-innings score of 159 indicates that chasing a sizeable target late in the match can become difficult.
That creates an important tactical distinction: a team that leads by 100-plus runs after the first innings may have considerably more control than the raw score suggests. Reverse swing, tired legs and variable bounce can become increasingly important if the Test reaches the final two days.
Overall, the pitch should provide opportunities for both batting and bowling, but the team with the deeper pace attack and the better first-innings platform should gain the greatest benefit.
Weather & Draw Risk
| Weather Factor | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Temperature | Around 18°C on September 9 |
| Humidity | Moderate |
| Rain Chance | Low on Day 1; higher shower risk later in the Test |
| Wind | Around 10–13 mph, generally north-west |
| Conditions | Breezy initially, then sunny periods |
The current forecast is favourable for the opening day, with the Met Office showing sunny intervals and only around a 10% precipitation chance during much of Wednesday. Broader forecasts indicate greater shower potential later in the Test, particularly around September 10–11.
Weather Impact on Result
Risk level: Moderate
Day 1 does not currently present a major interruption threat, so weather should not materially alter the opening-day strategy. The bigger concern is the possibility of interruptions later in the Test: lost overs would make it harder for Pakistan or England to take 20 wickets and could increase the draw probability.
The draw risk is therefore meaningful but not dominant. Edgbaston’s historical draw rate supports keeping the draw in the model, while the current mismatch in form and bowling effectiveness pushes the balance toward England.
Broadcast Details
The third Test will be broadcast in the UK on Sky Sports, with coverage beginning before the 11:00 AM local start. In India, the series is available on Sony Sports Network, with streaming through SonyLIV.
Start time: 3:30 PM IST / 11:00 AM BST.
Toss Prediction & Test Toss Strategy
If England Wins the Toss
England should lean toward bowling first if the surface and morning conditions retain the expected amount of movement. Their current pace attack is the strongest unit in the contest, and giving Robinson, Tongue, Archer and Atkinson the first use of the new ball against a reshuffled Pakistan top order makes tactical sense.
A strong first-session spell could put Pakistan into a defensive position immediately. England would then have the opportunity to bat under more stable conditions later in the day.
If Pakistan Wins the Toss
Pakistan should also seriously consider bowling first rather than assuming that batting first is automatically preferable in a Test. Abbas is their most reliable current bowler, and using him with the new ball against England’s top order is probably their best route to an early advantage.
The downside is obvious: if England survive the opening spell, Pakistan could spend a long period defending against an England attack that has already demonstrated superior control.
Toss Prediction
Predicted toss winner: England
Toss decision prediction: Bowl first.
The reasoning is based on the expected early seam assistance, England’s superior pace attack and the uncertainty surrounding Pakistan’s new batting combination.
First-Innings Score & Match Scenario
| Scenario | Projection |
|---|---|
| England 1st Innings | 330–380 |
| Pakistan 1st Innings | 220–280 |
England vs Pakistan 3rd Test Result Probability
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| England Win | 72% |
| Pakistan Win | 11% |
| Draw | 17% |
Total: 100%
England receive the highest probability because they have already dominated the first two Tests, possess the more settled XI and have the most effective bowling attack in the series. Robinson and Tongue have repeatedly taken wickets in clusters, while Pakistan’s batting has failed to reach 200 in any innings so far.
Pakistan’s 11% win probability reflects the possibility of a major improvement from the revamped squad. The return of Babar, the presence of Saud Shakeel and the arrival of fresh players could produce a very different batting performance, while Abbas remains capable of exploiting early movement.
Win % / Result Factors
| Factor | England | Pakistan | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-order batting | More settled | Major changes | England |
| Middle-order batting | Root, Brook, Lawrence | Babar, Saud, Masood | England |
| Batting depth | Strong | Uncertain | England |
| Ability to bat long | Better recent evidence | Major concern | England |
| New-ball bowling | Robinson, Tongue, Archer, Atkinson | Abbas, Ali, Ubaid | England |
| Spin attack | Bashir available | Sajid available | Even |
| Reverse swing | Strong pace depth | Potentially useful | England |
| Bowling depth | Four established quicks | Less settled | England |
| Ability to take 20 wickets | Proven in both Tests | Yet to do so | England |
| All-round balance | Lawrence provides depth | Minhas/others untested | England |
| Recent Test form | 3 wins in last 5 | 1 win in last 5 | England |
| Venue suitability | Home conditions | Away | England |
| Player availability | Relatively stable | Major squad overhaul | England |
| Workload | Multiple quality seamers | Less depth | England |
| Head-to-head | 30 wins | 23 wins | England |
| Weather | Better equipped if interrupted | Draw opportunity | Even |
| Fourth-innings strength | Stronger bowling attack | Uncertain batting | England |
The four biggest factors behind the prediction are England’s pace attack, Pakistan’s batting instability, first-innings control and squad continuity.
England have taken 20 wickets in each of the first two Tests, while Pakistan have been bowled out for 171, 135, 110 and 194. That is the clearest statistical difference between the sides.
The second factor is continuity. England have retained a largely unchanged squad, while Pakistan have changed seven players and two coaches between the second and third Tests.
The draw probability remains meaningful because Edgbaston has a long history of drawn Tests and the forecast becomes less certain beyond the opening day. But England’s ability to take wickets quickly reduces the number of scenarios in which a draw becomes the most likely outcome.
Key Test Matchups
| Matchup | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Ben Duckett vs Mohammad Abbas | Abbas’ control and movement could test Duckett before the pitch settles. |
| Abdullah Shafique vs Ollie Robinson | Robinson has repeatedly attacked Pakistan’s top order with movement and disciplined lengths. |
| Babar Azam vs Jofra Archer | Babar’s ability to handle Archer’s pace will influence Pakistan’s chances of building a competitive first innings. |
| Saud Shakeel vs Josh Tongue | Shakeel showed at Lord’s that he can resist for long periods, while Tongue has been excellent at producing breakthroughs. |
The most important battle may actually be Pakistan’s entire top order against England’s first spell. If Robinson and Tongue again create early damage, Pakistan’s reshuffled middle order could be exposed before the new players settle into Test cricket.
For England, Abbas is the major obstacle. If he removes Duckett, Gay or Cox early, England’s aggressive batting approach could be forced into a more conservative mode.
Session-by-Session Match Dynamics
First Session
The opening session should carry the greatest wicket-taking potential. The ball will be relatively new, the temperature cool and the pitch fresh, giving Robinson, Tongue, Archer and Abbas opportunities to exploit movement.
The first 20 overs could therefore have an outsized impact on the match. Pakistan especially cannot afford another start resembling their first two Tests.
Middle Session
Once the new ball loses some of its movement, batting should become more stable. This is the period where England’s middle order could build the platform for a 300-plus total.
If Pakistan bat during this phase, Babar, Saud and Masood will need to turn starts into long innings rather than allowing England to rotate their quicks against new batters.
Final Session
The final session should introduce fatigue and potentially renewed movement as the ball gets older. England’s four-man pace attack allows Root to rotate bowlers without losing wicket-taking quality.
The second new ball later in an innings could become another major turning point, especially if a team is attempting to protect a modest total.
Days 2–3
These are likely to be the best batting periods if the pitch remains stable. The side that secures the first-innings lead should be able to dictate the tempo.
For England, the ideal scenario is to bat once for a substantial total and then use the pace attack against Pakistan’s less settled batting unit.
Days 4–5
If the match lasts this long, the fourth innings becomes central. Edgbaston’s historical fourth-innings average of 159 is significantly lower than the first- and second-innings figures, indicating that late-match batting can become considerably more difficult.
That scenario favours England because their current pace attack has already demonstrated an ability to remove Pakistan’s lower order quickly.
Key Players
Expected Leading Batter
Saud Shakeel — Pakistan need a batter capable of absorbing pressure, and his 97 at Lord’s was the clearest example of someone successfully resisting England’s attack for an extended period.
Expected Leading Bowler
Ollie Robinson — Robinson has taken 16 wickets in the first two Tests at an average of 7.19 and has won Player of the Match awards in both matches.
X-Factor
Jofra Archer — Archer’s pace changes the tactical equation. Pakistan cannot simply rely on leaving the ball outside off stump when Archer can attack with high pace and short spells of intense pressure.
England vs Pakistan 3rd Test Match Prediction
The England vs Pakistan prediction for the Edgbaston Test points toward another England victory. England have won the first two Tests by an innings and 103 runs and 194 runs respectively, and their bowling attack has demonstrated the ability to take 20 wickets quickly.
The biggest concern for England is their own batting consistency, particularly against Mohammad Abbas with the new ball. However, England have enough depth to absorb an early setback, whereas Pakistan’s reshuffled batting lineup carries much greater uncertainty.
Predicted result: England to win
England win probability: 72%
The most likely match pattern is an England first-innings advantage followed by sustained pressure from their pace attack. A draw remains possible if Pakistan’s new combination produces a substantially longer batting performance or later-Test weather removes critical playing time.
What Could Prove Us Wrong?
- Pakistan’s new top order survives the first session: If Saim Ayub, Abdullah Shafique, Shan Masood and Babar negotiate Robinson and Tongue without early damage, Pakistan could finally establish the long first innings they have lacked.
- Babar Azam produces a major innings: His Lord’s scores of 8 and 6 were a major disappointment, but a substantial innings at Edgbaston would dramatically improve Pakistan’s chances of reaching 300-plus.
- Mohammad Abbas strikes early: Abbas has already taken 10 wickets in the series. If he removes two or three England top-order batters before lunch, England’s expected first-innings advantage could disappear.
- Saud Shakeel repeats his Lord’s resistance: Another 90-plus innings could give Pakistan the batting anchor required to turn a vulnerable top order into a competitive total.
- Rain interrupts the decisive stages: Current forecasts are favourable for Day 1, but shower risk is higher later in the Test. Lost sessions would reduce the number of overs available to take 20 wickets and materially increase the draw probability.
- England’s batting collapses: England’s bowling has been exceptional, but their batting has not been flawless. If Pakistan’s seamers exploit the new ball and England are restricted below 250, the match could become significantly more balanced.
Final Verdict
England remain the clear favourite at Edgbaston, with a 72% win probability, Pakistan at 11% and the draw at 17%. The decisive factor is England’s superior and more settled pace attack, combined with Pakistan’s repeated batting collapses and major squad disruption.
Pakistan’s best route to an upset is not an aggressive start but a disciplined one: survive the new ball, build a 300-plus first innings and make England bat under scoreboard pressure. If they cannot do that, England’s ability to take 20 wickets should be enough to complete a 3-0 series sweep.
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