Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades Prediction: Who Will Win ADS vs MLR 38th T20 BBL Match?
The Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades prediction for the 38th T20 of Big Bash League 2026 revolves around pride, form, and finishing the season on a positive note. The Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades prediction becomes crucial as both sides are already eliminated from the playoff race but still eager to avoid ending the campaign at the bottom. With the match scheduled at the Adelaide Oval, conditions, home advantage, and recent form play a decisive role in shaping this Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades prediction.
Adelaide Strikers have endured a disappointing season marked by batting collapses and inconsistency. However, playing at home gives them a final opportunity to sign off in front of their supporters with a confidence-boosting win. Melbourne Renegades, meanwhile, have struggled to maintain momentum despite a few standout individual performances. Their bowling has lacked control, and their middle order has failed to deliver consistently.
Considering squad balance, venue familiarity, and slightly better recent performances, the Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades prediction leans marginally in favor of the Strikers. Expect a competitive contest, but one where Adelaide’s depth and conditions could give them the edge.
- Adelaide Strikers look to end their season with a home victory
- Melbourne Renegades are out of playoff contention and low on confidence
- Adelaide Oval generally supports batting with early seam movement
- Strikers have a superior head-to-head record
Match Details
| Match | ADS vs MLR, 38th T20 |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, 17 January 2026 |
| Time | 11:30 AM IST |
| Venue | Adelaide Oval, Adelaide |
| Tournament | Big Bash League 2025-26 |
Adelaide Strikers Preview
Adelaide Strikers have had a season to forget in BBL 2026, with inconsistency defining their campaign. Despite boasting a squad filled with international experience, the Strikers have struggled to put together complete performances, especially with the bat. Their recent loss, where they were bowled out for just 83, perfectly summed up their season’s woes.
The top order has been unreliable. Alex Carey and Matthew Short have shown flashes of form but failed to provide consistent starts. Chris Lynn, expected to be the power-hitter in the lineup, has been unable to make a significant impact, often falling early and leaving the middle order exposed. Liam Scott has been the most consistent batter for the Strikers this season, scoring 292 runs in nine matches and frequently holding the innings together during collapses.
The middle order, featuring Jason Sangha and Jamie Overton, has lacked stability. Overton has contributed with both bat and ball in patches, but the absence of partnerships has hurt Adelaide badly. Lower-order hitters like Harry Manenti and Cameron Boyce have shown intent but rarely had the platform to play freely.
Bowling has been relatively better than batting. Hasan Ali has brought experience and aggression with the new ball, while Lloyd Pope and Tabraiz Shamsi have added variety in spin. Cameron Boyce has been economical in the middle overs, and Jamie Overton provides a useful seam option. However, the inability to defend modest totals has often neutralized these bowling efforts.
At Adelaide Oval, the Strikers will hope their batters show more discipline and intent. Ending the season with a home win would restore some confidence and give their supporters something to cheer about after a tough campaign.
Melbourne Renegades Preview
Melbourne Renegades have also endured a disappointing Big Bash League 2026, marked by defensive bowling displays and inconsistent batting. Sitting near the bottom of the table, the Renegades have failed to build momentum despite possessing explosive batters and experienced bowlers.
Josh Brown has been the standout performer with the bat, scoring 305 runs in nine matches at an impressive strike rate. His aggressive approach at the top has often given the Renegades brisk starts. Tim Seifert has also chipped in with a few fighting knocks, but the lack of consistency from the rest of the batting unit has been glaring.
Jake Fraser-McGurk has played a couple of impactful cameos, showing his attacking intent, but has struggled to convert starts into match-winning innings. Mohammad Rizwan, surprisingly, has failed to adapt to Australian conditions this season and has not lived up to expectations as a stabilizing force in the middle order.
The middle and lower order, featuring players like Hassan Khan, Will Sutherland, and Sam Elliott, has not provided the finishing punch required in T20 cricket. Too often, the Renegades have lost wickets in clusters, putting pressure on inexperienced lower-order batters.
Bowling has been another major concern. Adam Zampa remains their most reliable bowler, capable of picking up wickets in the middle overs. Gurinder Sandhu and Brendan Doggett have struggled for consistency, conceding runs at crucial moments. The lack of control in the death overs has been particularly costly, with opposition teams frequently posting or chasing down big totals.
With playoff hopes gone, the Renegades will play for pride. A win against Adelaide would provide some consolation, but their overall balance and form remain inferior compared to the Strikers.
Also Check: BBL 2025-26: Points Table, Most Runs & Most Wickets
Team Squads
Adelaide Strikers:
Alex Carey, Matthew Short, Chris Lynn, Liam Scott, Jason Sangha, Jamie Overton, Harry Manenti, Hasan Ali, Cameron Boyce, Lloyd Pope, Tabraiz Shamsi
Melbourne Renegades:
Tim Seifert, Josh Brown, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Mohammad Rizwan, Harry Dixon, Hassan Khan, Will Sutherland, Sam Elliott, Gurinder Sandhu, Brendan Doggett, Adam Zampa
Probable Playing XI
| Adelaide Strikers | Melbourne Renegades |
|---|---|
| Alex Carey (wk) | Tim Seifert |
| Matthew Short | Josh Brown |
| Chris Lynn | Jake Fraser-McGurk |
| Liam Scott | Mohammad Rizwan (wk) |
| Jason Sangha | Harry Dixon |
| Jamie Overton | Hassan Khan |
| Harry Manenti | Will Sutherland (c) |
| Hasan Ali | Sam Elliott |
| Cameron Boyce | Gurinder Sandhu |
| Lloyd Pope | Brendan Doggett |
| Tabraiz Shamsi | Adam Zampa |
Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades Today’s Dream11/Fantasy Prediction
| Role | Players |
|---|---|
| Batters | Liam Scott, Josh Brown, Matthew Short |
| All-rounders | Jamie Overton, Will Sutherland |
| Wicketkeepers | Alex Carey, Tim Seifert |
| Bowlers | Hasan Ali, Adam Zampa, Lloyd Pope, Gurinder Sandhu |
This fantasy team prioritizes form and role clarity. Liam Scott is a must-pick due to his consistency for Adelaide Strikers and ability to anchor the innings. Josh Brown is Melbourne Renegades’ most explosive batter and can score quick fantasy points in the powerplay. Matthew Short adds value with both bat and occasional overs.
Jamie Overton and Will Sutherland are valuable all-round picks, contributing in both departments. Alex Carey and Tim Seifert are safe wicketkeeping options who bat in the top order. Hasan Ali provides wicket-taking ability with the new ball, while Adam Zampa is a guaranteed middle-overs wicket-taker. Lloyd Pope’s leg-spin can be effective on the Adelaide surface, and Gurinder Sandhu adds variety in the pace attack.
Captain: Liam Scott
Vice-Captain: Josh Brown
Players to Avoid:
- Harry Dixon
- Sam Elliott
Also Check: Get The Best Fantasy Prediction From Cricket Experts
Favourite Team Today & Why
Adelaide Strikers are the favourite team in today’s match primarily due to home advantage and a slightly more balanced bowling attack. Despite their batting struggles, the Strikers possess better spin options and greater familiarity with Adelaide Oval conditions. Liam Scott’s consistency and the presence of experienced bowlers like Hasan Ali and Tabraiz Shamsi give them an edge over a Renegades side that has leaked runs throughout the season. Melbourne Renegades rely heavily on individual brilliance, whereas Adelaide can still function as a unit on their day. Playing their final home game, the Strikers will be motivated to finish the season positively in front of their fans.
Adelaide Strikers T20 History
| Matches | Won | Lost | NR | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 76 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
Melbourne Renegades T20 History
| Matches | Won | Lost | NR | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 61 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
Head-to-Head Stats
| Matches | ADS Won | MLR Won | NR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 12 | 8 | 0 |
Adelaide Strikers hold a clear advantage over Melbourne Renegades in head-to-head encounters, winning 12 of the 20 matches played so far.
Pitch Report
Adelaide Oval traditionally offers a good batting surface with true bounce and fast outfield. Early in the innings, seamers can extract movement with the new ball, but as the game progresses, batting becomes easier. Spinners can find some assistance in the middle overs if they vary pace and length. A first-innings score of around 150–160 is considered competitive at this venue.
Weather Report
| Condition | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Temperature | 24–27°C |
| Rain | No rain expected |
| Humidity | Moderate |
Clear weather conditions are expected, ensuring an uninterrupted match.
Broadcast Details
The match will be broadcast live on Star Sports Network, with live streaming available on JioHotstar. Fans can also follow live scores and commentary across digital platforms.
Toss Prediction
Winning the toss at Adelaide Oval could be important. Teams may prefer to bowl first to utilize early seam movement and assess conditions before chasing under lights.
Score Prediction
- If Adelaide Strikers bat first: 139+
- If Melbourne Renegades bat first: 135+
A low-to-mid scoring contest is expected.
Probable Batsman & Bowler
Probable Batsman:
Liam Scott is the most probable top run-scorer in this contest. He has been Adelaide Strikers’ most consistent batter throughout the season, showing composure even when the rest of the lineup has struggled. Batting in the middle order, Scott has the technique to handle early movement and the range to accelerate once set. His ability to rotate strike and build partnerships makes him a key player at Adelaide Oval. For Melbourne Renegades, Josh Brown remains the biggest batting threat. His aggressive approach in the powerplay can change the course of the game quickly if he gets going.
Probable Bowler:
Adam Zampa is the most likely bowler to make a major impact. The Adelaide surface traditionally offers some grip for spinners, and Zampa’s variations make him effective during the middle overs. From the Strikers’ side, Hasan Ali is expected to strike early with the new ball and could trouble the Renegades’ top order.
Also Check For More: Big Bash League Prediction
Match Prediction
Based on current form, home advantage, and squad balance, Adelaide Strikers are expected to win this match. Melbourne Renegades may show fight, but their inconsistency with both bat and ball gives the Strikers the edge in this final league encounter.
Winner: Adelaide Strikers Will Win
Also, once the toss takes place, we might modify the Today Match Prediction as per the playing XIs. Please check this blog after the toss for the updated Prediction.
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