Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars Prediction: Who Will Win MLR vs MLS 30th T20 BBL Match?
The Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars prediction for the 30th match of the Big Bash League 2025–26 revolves around pride, momentum, and playoff survival as the two Melbourne rivals lock horns at Marvel Stadium, Docklands, on Saturday, 10th January 2026. This derby arrives at a crucial juncture of the tournament, with both teams desperate to consolidate their positions on the points table during the final stretch of league fixtures.
Melbourne Renegades come into this clash with renewed confidence after registering back-to-back victories, including an impressive win over Perth Scorchers. Their bowling unit has found rhythm at the right time, while the batting lineup, though inconsistent, has delivered in key moments. Having already defeated the Melbourne Stars earlier this season, the Renegades will be keen to maintain dominance in this rivalry and further dent their opponent’s playoff hopes.
On the other hand, Melbourne Stars are enduring a torrid run of form. Three consecutive defeats have pushed them into a must-win scenario, and confidence within the camp appears fragile. The Stars’ bowling attack has struggled to contain opposition batters, while their batting unit has failed to fire collectively. Captain Marcus Stoinis now shoulders the responsibility of inspiring a turnaround, supported by match-winners like Glenn Maxwell and Haris Rauf.
Historically, the Stars have held the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but recent form favours the Renegades. With both sides under pressure, the Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars prediction points toward a high-intensity contest where momentum and execution will determine the outcome in this marquee Melbourne derby.
- Melbourne Renegades enter with back-to-back wins
- Melbourne Stars have lost their last three matches
- Renegades won the earlier meeting this season
- Marvel Stadium expected to produce a competitive total
Match Details
| Match | MLR vs MLS, 30th T20 |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, 10 January 2026 |
| Time | 1:45 PM IST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Tournament | Big Bash League 2025–26 |
Team Preview
Melbourne Renegades Preview
Melbourne Renegades have regained momentum at the business end of the season with two consecutive victories, a welcome turnaround after an erratic start. Captain Will Sutherland will be encouraged by the balance his side has shown, particularly with the ball.
The opening combination of Josh Brown and Tim Seifert offers explosive potential. Brown’s power-hitting can change games inside the powerplay, while Seifert provides stability. Mohammad Rizwan’s form remains a concern, but his experience makes him a key middle-order figure alongside Jake Fraser-McGurk, who thrives on counter-attacking roles.
Oliver Peake and Hassan Khan add depth, while Sutherland himself provides valuable all-round contributions. The Renegades’ bowling attack has been their strongest asset in recent matches. Gurinder Sandhu’s four-wicket haul in the previous game highlighted his ability to strike early, complemented by Jason Behrendorff’s new-ball swing.
In the middle overs, Callum Stow and Sutherland will need to control the run flow, while Hassan Khan and Sam Elliott provide support. If the Renegades’ batters post a competitive total, their bowling unit looks well-equipped to defend it at Marvel Stadium.
Melbourne Stars Preview
Melbourne Stars find themselves under immense pressure after three straight defeats. Captain Marcus Stoinis must rally his troops to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The Stars rely heavily on their top and middle order. Sam Harper and Thomas Rogers must provide a solid start, while Stoinis anchors the innings. Glenn Maxwell remains the biggest match-winner in the lineup, capable of changing the game in a few overs, with Hilton Cartwright offering additional firepower.
Bowling has been the Stars’ Achilles’ heel. Haris Rauf’s pace remains a threat, but inconsistency has plagued the unit. Peter Siddle and Liam Hatcher must strike early to relieve pressure, while Mitchell Swepson’s leg-spin could be crucial in the middle overs.
If the Stars are to revive their campaign, they need a collective effort with both bat and ball, something that has eluded them in recent matches.
Also Check: BBL 2025-26: Points Table, Most Runs & Most Wickets
Team Squads
Melbourne Renegades: Will Sutherland, Josh Brown, Tim Seifert, Mohammad Rizwan, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Oliver Peake, Hassan Khan, Sam Elliott, Gurinder Sandhu, Jason Behrendorff, Callum Stow
Melbourne Stars: Marcus Stoinis, Sam Harper, Thomas Rogers, Glenn Maxwell, Hilton Cartwright, Campbell Kellaway, Liam Hatcher, Haris Rauf, Peter Siddle, Mitchell Swepson, Blake Macdonald
Probable Playing XI
| Melbourne Renegades | Melbourne Stars |
|---|---|
| Will Sutherland (c) | Marcus Stoinis (c) |
| Josh Brown | Thomas Rogers |
| Tim Seifert | Sam Harper (wk) |
| Mohammad Rizwan (wk) | Campbell Kellaway |
| Jake Fraser-McGurk | Blake Macdonald |
| Oliver Peake | Glenn Maxwell |
| Hassan Khan | Hilton Cartwright |
| Sam Elliott | Mitchell Swepson |
| Gurinder Sandhu | Liam Hatcher |
| Jason Behrendorff | Haris Rauf |
| Callum Stow | Peter Siddle |
Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars Today’s Dream11/Fantasy Prediction
| Role | Players |
|---|---|
| Wicketkeeper | Tim Seifert |
| Batters | Jake Fraser-McGurk, Marcus Stoinis, Glenn Maxwell |
| All-rounders | Will Sutherland, Hassan Khan |
| Bowlers | Gurinder Sandhu, Jason Behrendorff, Haris Rauf, Mitchell Swepson, Peter Siddle |
This fantasy combination focuses on in-form all-rounders and wicket-taking bowlers. Will Sutherland and Marcus Stoinis are premium picks due to their dual contributions. Jake Fraser-McGurk’s aggressive batting makes him a high-upside option, while Glenn Maxwell remains a must-have in high-pressure matches.
Gurinder Sandhu’s recent four-wicket haul elevates his fantasy value, complemented by Behrendorff’s consistency with the new ball. Haris Rauf offers strike potential despite inconsistency, and Swepson provides middle-over breakthroughs.
Captain Choices: Marcus Stoinis, Will Sutherland
Vice-Captain Choices: Glenn Maxwell, Jake Fraser-McGurk
Players to Avoid: Sam Elliott, Blake Macdonald
Also Check: Get The Best Fantasy Prediction From Cricket Experts
Favourite Team Today
Melbourne Renegades start as favourites due to current momentum and superior bowling form. Their recent back-to-back wins have boosted confidence, and having already beaten the Stars earlier in the season gives them a psychological edge. The Stars, meanwhile, are low on confidence after three straight losses and have struggled to contain runs. Unless Melbourne Stars produce a dramatic turnaround, the Renegades’ balanced attack and recent form make them better placed to control this derby.
Melbourne Renegades T20 History
| Matches | Won | Lost | NR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 61 | 88 | 3 |
Melbourne Stars T20 History
| Matches | Won | Lost | NR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 77 | 82 | 1 |
Head-to-Head Stats
| Matches | Renegades Won | Stars Won |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 10 | 18 |
Melbourne Stars dominate the overall head-to-head record, but the Renegades have won key recent encounters.
Also Check: Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars Head to Head in T20 – Records, Team & Players Stats
Pitch Report
Marvel Stadium in Docklands typically offers a flat batting surface with consistent bounce and minimal lateral movement. The even nature of the wicket encourages aggressive stroke play, especially through the powerplay, with batters able to play through the line confidently. Seam bowlers will need to rely on variations and accuracy rather than pace and swing, while spinners can thrive by mixing pace and flight in the middle overs. Teams batting first often post competitive totals in the 160–170 range in men’s BBL matches here, and defending such scores is feasible if bowlers execute disciplined lines under lights.
Weather Report
| Condition | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Temperature | 22–25°C |
| Rain Chance | 0% |
| Wind | Light |
Fantastic conditions are expected inside Marvel Stadium, with clear skies and zero chance of rain. Gentle wind won’t interfere with play. The retractable roof ensures that rain or excessive wind won’t impact the game, and mild temperatures will aid full 20-over cricket with minimal atmospheric disruption.
Broadcast Details
The Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars match will be broadcast live on Star Sports Network with live streaming available on JioHotstar. Fans can also follow ball-by-ball commentary, expert analysis, and highlights on official Big Bash League digital platforms and mobile applications.
Toss Prediction
At Marvel Stadium, teams often prefer batting first to leverage the flat deck and apply scoreboard pressure under lights. Considering conditions and the balance of both sides, Melbourne Stars are slightly favoured to win the toss and opt to bat first in order to set a challenging total and put pressure on the Renegades’ chase.
Score Prediction
- If Melbourne Renegades bat first: 160–170
- If Melbourne Stars bat first: 145–155
At Marvel Stadium, totals in the 160s prove competitive due to true bounce and short boundaries. Chases under lights require positive intent early on, especially against disciplined bowling.
Probable Batsman & Bowler
For Melbourne Renegades, Jake Fraser-McGurk stands out as a probable top scorer due to his aggressive batting style and ability to accelerate the innings. Matt Renshaw (if playing) or Tim Seifert are also key contributors at the top order. Medium-pacer Gurinder Sandhu has shown wicket-taking ability and could be a threat early, while Jason Behrendorff’s experience makes him a reliable bowler in powerplay or death overs.
For Melbourne Stars, captain Marcus Stoinis is a key batting figure capable of playing a match-defining innings, and Glenn Maxwell can shift momentum quickly with his power-hitting. In bowling, Haris Rauf’s express pace gives him the potential to pick early wickets, and Peter Siddle offers experience and consistency in building pressure spells.
Match Prediction
Considering current form, squad balance, and conditions at Marvel Stadium, the Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars prediction suggests the Renegades hold the edge. Their recent momentum and effective bowling give them a slight advantage over a Stars side struggling for consistency. While Melbourne Stars possess match-winners capable of influencing key moments, Brisbane’s consistency and execution make them more likely to clinch a crucial derby victory.
Final Verdict: Melbourne Renegades are expected to win.
Also, once the toss takes place, we might modify the Today Match Prediction as per the playing XIs. Please check this blog after the toss for the updated Prediction.
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