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Pakistan faces a must-win clash against arch-rivals India in Match 5 of the Champions Trophy 2025 at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium on February 23. With the cricketing world eagerly awaiting this high-voltage battle, Pakistan finds itself under immense pressure after a 60-run defeat to New Zealand in their opening game.
As hosts of their first ICC event in 29 years, Pakistan would have hoped for a stronger start, but their loss to New Zealand has left them in a precarious position in Group A. Meanwhile, India registered a dominant six-wicket win over Bangladesh, making them clear favorites going into the game.
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Pakistan’s Qualification Scenarios If They Lose to India
A defeat against India would leave Pakistan’s chances of making the semi-finals hanging by a thread. Here’s how things could still play out:
Scenario 1: PAK win against BAN, NZ lose against BAN, IND lose against NZ
- Outcome:
- Pakistan and Bangladesh finish on two points each.
- India and New Zealand secure four points each and qualify for the knockouts.
- Pakistan’s fate: Eliminated.
Scenario 2: PAK win against BAN, NZ lose against BAN, IND win against NZ
- Outcome:
- Pakistan, Bangladesh, and New Zealand finish on two points each.
- India tops the group with six points.
- The second semi-final spot will be decided by Net Run Rate (NRR) between Pakistan, Bangladesh, and New Zealand.
- Pakistan’s fate: Qualification depends on NRR.
Scenario 3: PAK win against BAN, NZ win against BAN, IND lose against NZ
- Outcome:
- Pakistan finish with two points.
- Bangladesh end up winless and in fourth place.
- New Zealand tops the group with six points.
- India qualifies along with New Zealand.
- Pakistan’s fate: Eliminated.
Scenario 4: PAK win against BAN, NZ win against BAN, IND win against NZ
- Outcome:
- Pakistan finishes with two points.
- Bangladesh finish winless at the bottom.
- India and New Zealand qualify for the knockouts.
- Pakistan’s fate: Eliminated.
A Must-Win Game for Pakistan
With these scenarios in mind, it’s clear that Pakistan must beat India to avoid a near-certain elimination. A loss against their biggest rivals will put their fate out of their own hands, making their qualification highly unlikely.
Will Pakistan rise to the occasion or face an early exit? The Dubai clash is set to be a high-stakes thriller with everything on the line!
